2014 NBA Free Agency: Analyzing Moves and Their Fantasy Impact

LeBron James has made his decision and Carmelo Anthony won’t be far behind. While James returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers was a big surprise to some, the fact that teams are suddenly knocking out deals shouldn’t be.

They held the league hostage to get free agency started, and now we’re really starting to see some fireworks.

Let’s take a look at some fantasy basketball implications of some potential pending moves, as well as a few that have already happened:

Apr 30, 2014; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Rockets forward Chandler Parsons (25) reacts to making a three-pointer during the third quarter against the Portland Trail Blazers in game five of the first round of the 2014 NBA Playoffs at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Richardson-USA TODAY Sports

Chandler Parsons to the Mavericks?

Parsons will suddenly make more money than Dirk Nowitzki, which is probably a little embarrassing. That said, Parsons is actually quite underrated. Monta Ellis and Dirk will still run the show in Dallas if this restricted free agency signing goes down, but Parsons should still see an increased role from what we’ve seen in Houston. After all, Nowitzki and Ellis don’t shoot nearly as much as James Harden and Dwight Howard combined. Parsons still has solid mid-round value either way, but fantasy owners will prefer him in Dallas this year.

Chris Bosh was clearly a potential big ticket in Houston if LeBron jetted. However, even with that happening, Bosh has reportedly decided to stick in Miami with Dwyane Wade and try to salvage what they can together. That gives both Wade and Bosh mammoth fantasy value again, although Wade is a big injury risk thanks to his balky knees.

With Bosh no longer in the plans for the Rockets, they’ll now have to make the decision to let Dallas snatch Parsons up, or to match the offer. Stay tuned.

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Jarrett Jack (1) looks on during the fourth quarter against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Cavaliers won 106-100. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports

Nets/Celtics/Cavaliers Trade

Jarrett Jack is now in Brooklyn, while Tyler Zeller and Marcus Thornton are now in Boston. Jack will fill Shaun Livingston’s old role (now with the Warriors), and probably won’t have much more value than he did a year ago.

Zeller is probably going to waste away behind more impressive talents like Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger. Thornton might have a shot to do some damage though. The Celtics did just re-sign Avery Bradley to a big deal, so Thornton’s best odds are coming off the bench as an electric sixth man scorer. His value will only be mildly better than in 2013.

The real impact of this trade is in Cleveland, where they cleared up space to land LeBron and/or Kevin Love or some other big name player. James is already in town, obviously, but it will be interesting to see what else the Cavs do before the season rolls around.

LeBron and Melo Impact

Nothing is going to change for either of these guys. They are kings in the league and will remain first round fantasy basketball draft picks. James going back to Cleveland changes very little, although he does have less help so naturally he should be closer to the top pick discussion.

Melo is almost certainly going to follow the cash back to the Knicks too. No one can come anywhere close to the money they can offer him, and it doesn’t hurt to finally have a competent mind like Phil Jackson running the show. In terms of fantasy value, he might even get a little bit better as he remains a volume scorer and King Kong in New York.

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The only thing that could shake things up remarkably is if Melo actually went somewhere else. His top options are probably Los Angeles, Chicago and Houston. His value would remain pretty great in L.A., even if he split the scoring load with Kobe Bryant. His value would almost certainly take a hit with the Bulls or Rockets, though, as he’d be sharing the ball with Harden and Howard in Houston or playing more with a defense-first tempo with Derrick Rose and Da Bulls.

James going to Cleveland sparks more talk about the Cavs trying to land Kevin Love. Regardless of whether that happens or not, it’ll also impact what happens with rookie star Andrew Wiggins. Obviously with James in tow, Wiggins would at best be the team’s third scoring option. There is a strong chance that he could be shipped off to Minnesota if the Love to Cavs rumors actually have any legs.

Apr 16, 2014; San Antonio, TX, USA; Los Angeles Lakers center Pau Gasol (16) watches from the bench against the San Antonio Spurs during the second half at AT&T Center. The Lakers won 113-100. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Pau Gasol, Isaiah Thomas and Gordon Hayward

These are the other big names that are going to be the dominos that fall now that LeBron has made his decision. Gasol could take less money and go to New York or San Antonio, but his fantasy value would be fairly diminished with the Spurs and he’s not winning anytime soon with the Knicks.

Gasol holds the Lakers in high regard, where he’d still get to play with Kobe and have a massive role. This is almost certainly where his best fantasy value resides, while New York comes in a close second. He’ll also mildly consider the Thunder and Bulls, where he’d have a good chance at competing for a title.

Recent reports have Gasol turning down a two-year deal to stay in L.A, so it’s probably down to Chicago, OKC, New York and San Antonio. Some reports suggest just the Bulls and Spurs are actually in the mix. If it comes down to the two, look for Gasol to join the defending champs.

Thomas is done in Sac-town, which is odd considering he just had a career year for them last season. He clearly can ball (although he can’t defend), and is now headed to Phoenix to be a spark bench scorer at the very worst. He also serves as a long-term insurance policy with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe both looking at contract situations in the near future. Darren Collison sees a positive impact from IT2’s impending departure, as he’s the new starting PG for the Kings. He’s suddenly a nice mid-round pick.

There are a few other names to keep an eye on, but the last key one right now is Utah’s Gordon Hayward. The Bobcats just signed him to a massive offer sheet, but the Jazz are reportedly expected to match it. Hayward would probably retain decent fantasy value in Charlotte with Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker giving his supporting cast an upgrade. His best fantasy bet is in Utah though, where he could continue to slowly turn into their go-to scorer.

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