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2014 Fantasy Football: Which Stud From 2013 Will Bust in 2014?

By Justin Becker

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We deal with busts every year in fantasy football.  Predicting them before they come to pass is something we all wish we could do.  The desire to do so increases thanks to just how competitive fantasy leagues have gotten, but the best we can really do is take in all of the information and make an educated guess.

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There is a good reason why certain players get red-flagged on a regular basis. Guys like Darren McFadden and Ryan Mathews may have loads of talent, but they’ve always struggled to stay healthy. The difference?  Mathews actually bucked his own injury-prone trend in 2013.  McFadden did not.

The key is deciding which players can get over the hump, whether it be due to injury, role or mere production.  You also need to decipher which ones are simply hopeless.

Of course, there is also that random stud that disappoints as well. Last year it came in the form of Aaron Rodgers, Julio Jones, Doug Martin and many others.  So, which big name stud will break your heart this year? It just might be one of these five guys:

Will Manning be a bust this year? You can see what he thinks about that. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

Manning is 38 years old and fresh off of a career year. In fact, it was the best season out of a quarterback in NFL history – by far. However, there is a natural regression to be expected here, as players simply don’t normally repeat career years like that. Manning himself can attest to that, as he dropped down considerably after breaking the single-season passing touchdown record in 2004 for the first time. He had 49 touchdowns that year, but just 28 the next.

Age and natural regression both statistically and physically are two good reasons to cast some doubt on Manning in 2014.  A third is a much tougher schedule.  As a Super Bowl participant of a year ago, the Broncos are going to see a much tougher schedule in 2014.  Considering he’s being taken in the first round of fantasy drafts, Manning could end up being a slight bust when it’s all said and done.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

The end is nearing for Lynch when it comes to being a full-fledged featured back. Not only is he aging coming up on a contract year in 2015, but he also has had an insane workload over the past three years (900+ carries).  Add in some talented young running backs behind him, and it only makes sense that he’d slowly be getting phased out of the offense.

It’s going to be a gradual fade, but Lynch may not be worth the first round pick fantasy owners have to spend to get him anymore. In fact, the Seattle Times predicts Lynch to lose around 40 carries in 2014, while his hit in total touches could be even more.  And even if Lynch’s touches aren’t to take a hit, fantasy owners still have to factor in the potential regression with such a heavy workload.

Chances are Lynch will still be a very effective fantasy back, but for the price you have to pay, it’s possible he could border on being a bust.

Dec 9, 2013; Chicago, IL, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray (29) is pushed out of bounds by Chicago Bears free safety Chris Conte (47) during the first quarter Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Murray surprisingly made it through a career high 14 games a year ago, finishing as fantasy’s 7th best running back behind his first ever 1,000-yard rushing season.  With offensive coordinator Scott Linehan coming into town, Murray’s value is set to soar through the roof with projected career highs across the board.

However, is a massive role increase really what everyone wants to hear about a guy who has struggled to stay healthy through the first three years of his career?  Murray is set up to be that classic boom or bust pick this year, as his talent and role are absolutely through the roof.  He could easily climb even higher in the ranks this year, but that red-flagged injury history will surely be in the back of everyone’s minds, making him a legit bust candidate for 2014.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins

Jackson is set up to be a pretty big bust for anyone expecting him to just pick up where he left off in 2013. There’s absolutely no denying his immense athletic ability or his elite production from a year ago.  He was fantasy football’s 10th ranked wide receiver thanks to career best numbers across the board.

Unfortunately, D-Jax is no longer stationed where he posted those prolific numbers. Instead of staying in Philly and trying to build on that epic year, he changes locations and offenses. Now he’s playing with an equally explosive weapon in Pierre Garcon, and also has to worry about losing targets to tight end Jordan Reed.  No longer the sure-fire top weapon in his team’s passing game, Jackson is in danger of a significant drop-off in targets and overall production.  He still carries terrific upside, but depending on how things shake out, the change of scenery could have him turning into a pretty big bust.

Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns

There is a lot to like about Jordan Cameron. He has outstanding size and ball skills, is an elite athlete for the position and is pretty much the only weapon worth talking about in Cleveland right now.  The bad news is that there is still continued uncertainty under center.  He’ll experience a complete schematic and coaching change and the potential of no Josh Gordon (likely suspension looming) will make it easy for defenses to focus on him.

That could equate to Cameron putting up even better numbers in 2014 than he did a year ago, or it could make him one of the worst fantasy busts.

All of these guys were studs in fantasy football a year ago. A couple of them have been beastly for years. However, each one has a unique situation and could bust out, one way or another. That doesn’t mean you can’t draft any of these guys, but it does mean they’re on notice to potentially be major disappointments.

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