Why the Charlotte Hornets’ championship window is now
By John Bauman
In a piece titled “The 5 Percent Theory,” Grantland’s Zach Lowe laid out one of the basic tenets of NBA team building. The title of the piece comes from the idea that any NBA team with at least a five percent shot at winning an NBA title should be 100% focused on taking home the Larry O’Brien trophy. In the article, Lowe writes,
"“If you have some pieces, you’re almost there, and if you’re almost there, you go for it — even if the chances of toppling a superpower are slim. “If you’ve got even a 5 percent chance to win the title — and that group includes a very small number of teams every year — you’ve gotta be focused all on winning the title,” says Rockets GM Daryl Morey. Mark Cuban, the Mavs’ owner, agrees: “One sprained toe or two, and the competitive landscape changes,” he says. “You don’t want to miss that opportunity. You should always put the best team you can on the floor within the parameters you have set for yourself.””"
The article focuses mostly on the Thunder’s decision to delay their championship window until after the NBA’s superteams of the Heat’s Big Three and the Laker’s Big Two of Kobe and Dwight had dissolved. Lowe called this practice of delaying your team’s dynasty to wait for the perfect time “sort of ludicrous,” because you never know when, in Mark Cuban’s words, “One sprained toe or two, and the competitive landscape changes.” The article goes on to point out the perfect example of the theory — Cuban’s 2011 Mavericks, which caught a couple breaks and rode them all the way to the franchise’s first championship.
That article and quotes were taken from 2012, and the NBA landscape has changed drastically from then. The Miami Heat’s band has broken up, the aforementioned Lakers superteam never worked out, and new superteams have risen in their place — the Spurs are the defending world champions, the Thunder still have two of the top ten players in the league, and I hear the Cleveland Cavaliers have big plans in their first season with LeBron James back in town. However, the five percent theory referenced still very much holds true, especially this season.
The Charlotte Hornets have slowly risen from the ashes of an ugly, ugly 2011-12 season, in which they went 7-59, the worst winning percentage of any team in NBA history. Only a lockout shortened season kept the Hornets from losing the most games in NBA history, an honor that belongs to the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers. General manager Rich Cho was hired in 2011, and has made some shrewd roster moves since then. There have been some hiccups, like trading up for the seventh pick in the 2011 draft and then wasting the selection on Bismack Biyombo. But overall, the Hornets front office have done a good job building a team with an eye for the future, something the previous front office regime lacked.
The franchise pieces slowly started coming together in the non-botched part of 2011 draft, when the Hornets drafted Kemba Walker, an active point guard out of UConn. Next came the consolation prize in Anthony Davis’s 2012 draft — Kentucky teammate Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. With the signing of Al Jefferson in the 2013 free agency period, the Hornets finally had a playoff team, even though making the playoffs in the lowly Eastern Conference deserves an asterisk at least. This offseason, the Hornets pushed their collective title odds even higher, inking Lance Stephenson to a three-year, $27 million contract.
The Hornets got their first taste of playoff basketball last year, and its seemed like a long playoff window was being opened in Charlotte. Even a four game sweep at the hands of the Heat was a major step in the right direction for Buzz City, and that was without center Al Jefferson for much of the series. Jefferson was the key in transforming the Hornets from a 21 win team in 2012-13 to a 43 win team last season. Rich Cho and the front office knew Jefferson’s low post prowess would demand double teams on the block, opening up the offense for scorers Gerald Henderson and Walker. That was true, but the Hornets weren’t fully able to capitalize due to poor three-point shooting. Gary Neal was brought in to try and add more shooting, and Cody Zeller was drafted to stretch the floor next to Big Al, but both options never quite thrived.
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The Hornets brought in Lance Stephenson to try to add that offensive spark that the team never had last year. Stephenson is better known for his on-court antics with ear-blowing and trash-talking, but he is also pretty good at basketball, too. He led the league in triple doubles last season and could do really well in Charlotte playing alongside All-NBA third teamer Jefferson and up and coming point guard Walker. He signed a three-year deal, with a team option on the third season. That allows the Hornets some flexibility with the contract and makes it a tradable one if everything goes south with Stephenson’s attitude.
But it would take a lot, like gale force wins coming from Stephenson’s mouth, for the Hornets to end that contract. Big time free agents like Stephenson rarely pick small markets like Charlotte. His team-friendly three-year contract appears to give the Hornets at least a three-year playoff window, barring that this current core of Walker, Stephenson and Jefferson stays together over that span. Keeping that trio together may be harder than it seems, however. Jefferson has a player-option next season for $13.5 million. I imagine that he would opt out to try to secure one more contract before his age catches up to him and before the league’s next impending lockout in 2017.
Re-signing Jefferson will be vitally important to keeping this playoff window alive. Not only was Jefferson very good last year, but the Hornets also don’t have anyone who could replace him. Recent draft picksZeller and NoahVonleh will never demand a double-team on the block, at least not until they hit their primes. Waiting around forZeller andVonleh to develop wouldrequire the Hornets to wait for another playoff window to emerge in a few years, probably starting around 2016 or 2017 after a tank job in 2015. And hoping to sign a star free agent to replace him and fix all the team’s needs is poor team buildingtheory — just ask theLakers. Even if the Hornets keep Jefferson around in the near future, he is 29 years old. Who knows how many good years he has left? The Hornets need to recognize this and act quickly to make a late playoff push in Jefferson’sprime, which is right now.
The Hornets are a playoff team in the East next season, I firmly believe. A starting lineup of Walker, Stephenson, MKG, Zeller/Marvin Williams and Jefferson can be a mid-seed in the East in 2014-15. Kidd-Gilchrist is the key to the Hornet’s developing into a true playoff contender. I look at the situation that Indiana was in a few years ago — in 2012, the Pacers pushed Miami to six games in the Eastern Conference semis. The next year, they made a mini-leap jumping up the next tier in the East and took the Heat to seven games in the conference finals, mostly due to the improved play of Paul George. If Kidd-Gilchrist puts his offensive game together (i.e. can make an open three pointer at least) next year and adds it to his already stellar defense, the Hornets really have something.
The Pacers needed some breaks to get to the conference finals in 2013– Derrick Rose got hurt in Chicago, ruining a potential juggernaut team, and J.R. Smith lost his head against Boston, throwing off what the Knicks had built all season. The Hornets could get the same breaks in a weakish Eastern Conference- Cleveland can’t figure things out in year one, Derrick Rose isn’t the same in Chicago, the Pacers can’t field a league average offense without Stephenson, or maybe someone sprains a toe in the playoffs. This is the year for the Hornets. With an extension coming for Kemba Walker, Al Jefferson’s prime coming to a close, and the team getting a unique break with Lance Stephenson’s free agency, the Hornet’s may never get their 5% chance at an NBA title again for the next few years. They should go for it, and you never know — they could find themselves in the Finals next June with a couple lucky breaks.