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New York Yankees: Betances, Robertson pacing playoff push

ByBryan Gibberman|
Jul 24, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; New York Yankees hat and glove sit on the dugout steps during the game against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Texas won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 24, 2013; Arlington, TX, USA; New York Yankees hat and glove sit on the dugout steps during the game against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Texas won 3-1. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Yankees are in the process of trying to accomplish an achievement that doesn’t happen in Major League Baseball very often.

Sitting at 54-49, the Yankees trail the Orioles by three games for first place in the American League East and are tied with the Blue Jays for the second wild card spot. The Yanks have been able to put themselves in this position despite a minus-27 run differential.

Yankees’ World Series odds remain unchanged despite Aaron Judge’s expected return
Yankees’ World Series odds remain unchanged despite Aaron Judge’s expected return

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    • Run differential is a basic, but telling statistic. Teams that are good tend to outscore their opponents over the course of a season. Since 2002 only two teams, the 2005 San Diego Padres and 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, have made the postseason with a negative run differential.

    San Diego won a miserable National League West with an 82-80 record.  The Padres were a negative 42.  They scored the fourth lowest amount of runs in MLB and had the 17th ranked starting staff going by ERA.  The Friars strength was their bullpen, which finished the season sixth with a 3.49 ERA.

    The Diamondbacks were able to manage a 90-72 mark despite being a -20.  Arzona’s starting staff had the sixth best ERA and bullpen came in at 13, while the offense was fifth worst.

    The two teams combined to go a fluky 61-40 (60% winning percentage) in one run games.

    New York profiles somewhere in the middle of the two listed above – the Pinstripes starters have the 16th best ERA and bullpen is also 16th.  The bats are ranked 21st for total runs scored across MLB.  The biggest difference is the Yankees are only 15-12 in one-run games (55%). That’s a good record, but not spectacular.

    Jul 3, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher Dellin Betances (68) delivers a pitch in the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Yankees won 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
    Jul 3, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; New York Yankees relief pitcher Dellin Betances (68) delivers a pitch in the eighth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. The Yankees won 7-4. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

    The main reason the Yanks can potentially be an outlier if the team doesn’t improve across the board is the bullpen combination of reliever Dellin Betances and closer David Robertson. The two relievers have formed a devastating one-two punch.  In 61.1 innings Betances has struck out 92 batters (13.5 K/9) with a 1.47 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. Robertson has tossed 38.2 innings with 67 strikeouts (15.59 K/9), 2.33 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

    In games both pitchers have pitched when they’ve first taken the mound with the score being tied or having the lead the Yankees have an incredible 19-3 record, accounting for 35% of their victories. What makes it even more impressive is these Ws aren’t of the blowout variety, New York’s average margin of victory is 1.79.

    The Yankees ability to shut down opposing teams with these two pitchers give them a unique ability to consistently win a higher percentage of close games most teams don’t have.

    Things would be easier if the Yankees bats, makeshift starting rotation and other relievers were able to pick up their performance, but if they can figure out a way to get these two enough chances over the final 59 games New York might be able to sneak into the playoffs anyway.

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