ESPN’s Nate Silver: Pacers will make playoffs even if Paul George doesn’t play

Mar 14, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (24) during the first quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Pacers defeated the Sixers 101-94. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 14, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (24) during the first quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Pacers defeated the Sixers 101-94. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Indiana Pacers suffered an enormous blow Friday when Paul George suffered a horrific leg injury in Team USA’s Blue and White scrimmage. Many are expecting George to miss the upcoming season.

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With the Pacers also losing Lance Stephenson to the Charlotte Bobcats this offseason, it’s fair to wonder if Indiana will make the postseason in 2014-15.

However, ESPN’s Nate Silver and his projection system have some good news for Pacers fans after what’s been a tough 24 hours.

"We can consider what the Pacers might look like next season assuming that George doesn’t play but they otherwise don’t make changes to their roster. I’ll do that by running a projection based on the technique described here, which evaluates players based on their age and performance over the past three regular seasons. In contrast to the previous article, which used a metric calledstatistical-plus minus, I used ESPN’s NBA Real Plus Minus, which better accounts for a player’s defense — a key consideration whenever you’re talking about the Pacers(…)This method projects the Pacers to a 44-38 record, which last year would have translated into a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference."

As Silver notes, the Pacers also might be able to sign another contributing player by using the disabled player exception, which could come into play following George’s injury.

While Indiana in all likelihood won’t be making a third straight trip to the conference finals next year, they’re not in as of dire straights as many of us are making them out to be in, according to Silver’s math.