Oakland A’s: Why Lester trade follows “Moneyball” principles

Let’s air out the basics first. The Boston Red Sox have shipped Jon Lester and Jonny Gomes to the west coast in exchange for Oakland Athletics OF Yoenis Cespedes.

If you were to walk up and ask the random casual baseball fan to name you three… no, two… Oakland A’s position players, the Vegas odds are that Yoenis Cespedes is certainly one that would have named — pre Thursday afternoon. The Cuban defect, in his third year, has made a name for himself in the league thanks to his power hitting at the plate and cannon arm in the field. He has already won the home run derby twice.

It appears Oakland A’s GM Billy Beane is pushing a lot of chips in for this team to win the World Series by, more or less, “renting” Lester — and with good reason. The team is first in the league in runs, sixth in OBP and has arguably the best starting rotation in baseball. With Lester, Sonny Gray, Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir, most teams will have their hands full trying to squeeze out runs against Oakland in the post-season. However, it may not hurt them as bad at the plate as it appears on the surface, while also being a decent deal long-term for the team.

Cespedes, who has a relatively confusing contract himself, is going to be a free agent at the end of next season. Whatever his value may be, odds are the Oakland A’s were not going to want to pay it. Lester is going to be a free agent at the end of this season, and if his asking price is anywhere near what he wanted in Boston, the A’s – again – aren’t going to want to pay it. Gomes is a different story, he may hang around across the bay for a few seasons.

That being said, the A’s were (most likely), not going to be able to keep Cespedes, especially through arbitration (which, he no longer is required to do; again, it’s confusing). Ergo, Billy Beane got a playoff pitcher and a playoff experienced outfielder who is struggling, but certainly is not worthless for a player who he couldn’t retain anyway.

All of that was common knowledge, let’s get back to the Money Ball concept, ESPN’s Kevin Blackistone said this of the A’s transaction: “Beane does a good job in Oakland, but he really stepped up here and is playing a little Yankee Ball. Money Ball sells movie tickets, Yankee Ball wins championships.”

I’m not convinced the trade can’t be both, and if I had to fit it in one category, I’d be pressed not to call it a “Money Ball” move.

In fact, Jonny Gomes may fit in Oakland after all. Cespedes is a rare talent; there’s no denying that, and he can hit the ball a country mile. However, he is only batting .254 with a .308 OBP. His patience at the plate is that of an eight-year-old at a candy store. He walks about six percent (28 walks in 432 plate appearances) of the time at the plate. Granted, power (17 home-runs) and his RBI totals (67) can’t just be tossed into the wind, but if you have seen the movie Money Ball, what’s important with a hitter, according to the A’s: getting on base. Let’s ask Pete about it.

Gomes, despite only batting .234 on the season, has an OBP of .336, and walks in 11 percent of his plate appearances — that’s pretty good plate patience. In fact, last year Cespedes batting average was .240 and Gomes hit .247. The drop-off at the plate may not be as dramatic as it appears, even if numbers tend to inflate in Fenway, which could very well happen for Cespedes.

Side note: The Sox, if they have any interest in keeping Cespedes – which, I would assume they do – in the long run, the deal should be made sooner than later. A lot of balls that weren’t leaving the park in Oakland will find their way out in Fenway, and singles will turn to doubles off the Green Monster.

If given the choice between Cespedes and Gomes, I choose Cespedes 10 times out of 10. Well, maybe nine times, sometimes I do love a good playoff beard. Cespedes may not get on base as much, and may swing at just about anything coming his way, but he is too big of a threat in the lineup, and scores/brings home more runs than Gomes, generally speaking.

That said, in the sweetener of Jon Lester, which is more like a truck full of sugar, you’d be a fool not to appreciate Beane’s move here. It may not be the typical “Money Ball” move, but it certainly isn’t Yankee Ball. He gained a lot of value for this year, by basically letting a fluctuating, defensively liable, but power-hitting all-star go one year in advance.

Maybe, Cespedes will turn out to be the next Manny in Boston (again, note the power-hitting defensive liability), but Beane is much too focused on his team, who is leading the AL West, than the Red Sox, who are trailing the pack in the AL East.