Oakland Raiders: Is 10 wins out of the question in 2014?
The Oakland Raiders are done tearing things down. For two seasons now, general manager Reggie McKenzie has had to perform a demolition on what was a roster heavy on bad contracts and low on talent. Coming into this offseason, the Raiders had finally cleared up their salary cap situation. They had tons of cap space and a plethora of holes on the roster. The dust having now settled, it looks like McKenzie had a solid offseason.
Free agency got off to a rocky start, as the Raiders lost their two best players in LaMarr Houston and Jared Veldheer. They tried to overpay for Roger Saffold from the Rams before his contract voided and he went back to St. Louis. But McKenzie rebounded nicely, adding a multitude of solid veterans on reasonable deals. The Raiders tried to reel in some big fish, such as Darrelle Revis and DeSean Jackson, but were ultimately unsuccessful due to a lack of free agent capital. It’s hard to get guys to come to a perennially lousy organization that plays in one of the worst venues in the league.
Every year in free agency there are bad teams that throw crazy money at mediocre players. The Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins immediately come to mind, and unfortunately so does Al Davis — I wonder what Javon Walker is up to these days? McKenzie didn’t do that. Instead, he sifted the market for good veteran players he could acquire without overspending. Though the Raiders lost their two best players, they used their cap space wisely and upgraded both sides of the ball.
Oakland was just 28th in offensive DVOA a season ago and major changes were needed. McKenzie added size and depth to the offensive line, bringing in Donald Penn to replace Veldheer at left tackle and 6-foot-7, 333 pound Austin Howard to start at right guard. The Raiders had one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season, according to Football Outsiders. They ranked 26th in adjusted line yards, which measures run blocking effectiveness, and 28th in adjusted sack rate, which represents pass blocking.
The offensive line now projects to have Penn at left tackle, Khalif Barnes at left guard, Stefen Wisniewski at center, Howard at right guard, and last year’s second round pick Menelik Watson at right tackle. Penn is a slight downgrade from Veldheer and Watson is a bit of a question mark, but overall the line is bigger and should be better than it was a year ago.
McKenzie also added to the skill positions. The Raiders signed receiver James Jones from the Green Bay Packers, who led the league in touchdowns in 2012 and set a career high in receiving yards last season, 817, despite Aaron Rodgers missing seven games. Jones is strong after the catch, making him a good fit for a Raiders passing game that operates with lots of short and intermediate routes. McKenzie re-signed Darren McFadden on a cheap deal and brought in Maurice Jones-Drew from the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Raiders struck gold last season with Jones-Drew’s former backup Rashad Jennings. They hope a beefed up offensive line will help both running backs find their old elite selves again.
On defense, Justin Tuck, Antonio Smith, and LaMarr Woodley solidify the front seven. None of the three players are in their prime, but all can still be effective playing different roles. Smith is an upgrade over the departed Vance Walker inside and should pair nicely with the re-signed Pat Sims, a good veteran pickup last offseason. Throw in fourth round pick Justin Ellis, last year’s sixth rounder who showed promise Stacy McGee, and Tuck, who can kick inside, and the Raiders defensive tackle situation is much deeper and more versatile than a year ago.
All indications are that Khalil Mack will be a force to be reckoned with, and he’s a guy who can be moved around at different positions. His biggest impact will likely be as a pass rusher. Defensive coordinator Jason Tarver came into the league with a reputation for being a mad scientist schematically, and we started to see some of that last season. The Raiders had better players, and were also healthier in the secondary, than in Tarver’s first season which allowed him to do more creative things. Assuming good health in the front seven, it’ll be fascinating to watch the Raiders defensively in third-and-long situations. They have real potential to get after passers this year and Tarver has a lot of useful pieces he can move around the chess board.
The biggest question mark on defense is last year’s first round pick D.J. Hayden, who struggled as a rookie. It’s not uncommon for young cornerbacks to struggle, but he’s came into camp this year injured already. The Raiders have some adequate pieces at corner, but need Hayden to be good to tie the whole defense together. They’re a defense in desperate need of playmakers and he was brought in to be a franchise cornerstone. He doesn’t necessarily have to get there this season, but he needs to show improvement.
In the short-term, Oakland’s most impactful offseason acquisition was that of Matt Schaub at quarterback. He’s probably the best signal caller they’ve had since Rich Gannon, though that says more about the Raiders than Schaub. Playing on essentially a one-year deal, the former Houston Texans QB has to prove that his atrocious play from a year ago was a fluke. Schaub isn’t a franchise quarterback, he never was, but has proven to be a solid in the past. He piloted really good Houston teams that had a strong running game and dominant defense, a formula Oakland is looking to replicate.
Schaub’s performance will be a potential turning point for the franchise moving forward. Going from atrocious to competent quarterback play is often more impactful to a team than going from competent to elite play, just ask last year’s Chiefs. With Jones-Drew, McFadden, and Marcel Reece behind him, and a receiving corps devoid of an elite number one but stocked with solid twos and threes, Schaub and the Raiders have enough weapons to be solid this season.
After two consecutive 4-12 seasons, head coach Dennis Allen will be on the hot seat. Whether that’s fair or not is beside the point. The Raiders are improved from a year ago and headed on the right path, but they need to take a step forward this season. If everything goes right and they catch a few breaks, maybe they stretch this roster into 10 wins. They’re more likely to be in the 6-8 range. Whether that’s enough to save Allen is unknown, but at least they’d be taking a clear step in the right direction. Another four win season would likely result in a coaching change, and possibly McKenzie being replaced as well.
Oakland’s roster isn’t devoid of talent or depth like it has been in years past, but as a team Oakland’s ceiling is limited by an absence of elite players. It’s why not re-signing Veldheer and Houston was mind-boggling. Depth is obviously important, but stars win games. That’s especially true at the quarterback position. Schaub is solid, which is enough to win games assuming everything else falls into place, but he’ll never be elite. Maybe Derek Carr will be, but that likely isn’t happening this season.
If this is the last year McKenzie and Allen are in Oakland, their tenure will be marred by the fact that they couldn’t develop their young talent into stardom. They don’t just hope that Mack and Hayden become superstars, they need them to be. The Raiders don’t have a million draft picks to trade away for stars and aren’t miraculously going to become attractive to elite free agents overnight. Their best chance to add stars has been, and will be, through the draft. That hasn’t happened yet. It’s the third year of this regime and they should start to see a return on investment on some of these young guys.
So yeah, this is a big year for the Raiders. Rightly so, most are skeptical of this team. Hinging much of your success on a quarterback who was doing this last season is not ideal:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2hIearRWr8
And really, we don’t totally know what to make of Allen and his staff. They haven’t been impressive, but haven’t had a ton to work with either. Every season in the NFL is important, but really this one is monumental for the Raiders. Often times we talk about throwing young quarterbacks, or young players, into the fire to see what they are. This is the best opportunity of Allen and McKenzie’s three seasons in Oakland to see what they can do and what they are. It’s time for them to move forward and make some real progress or changes will be coming.