Corey Kluber: Cy Young chances for Indians ace

In July, Corey Kluber went 4-0 in five starts with a 1.54 ERA and 43 strikeouts over 41 innings pitched for the Cleveland Indians. His great month wasn’t an outlier, but rather a continuation of a fantastic season. Kluber is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball, but maybe the most underrated.

Despite not being selected to the All-Star game in July, he is starting to get the proper recognition he deserves as a candidate to win the Cy Young award in the American league. Kluber isn’t a big name like Felix Hernandez or Chris Sale, but he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath; elite.

As of August 5th, these were the top five candidates to win the AL Cy Young award according to online gaming service Bovada:

• Felix Hernandez 9-4
• Chris Sale 3-1
• Max Scherzer 6-1
• Sonny Gray 7-1
• Corey Kluber 7-1

If we compare the records and key statistics (courtesy of FanGraphs) of each of those five guys to date, this is what we get:

Hernandez is clearly the best pitcher of the group and will rightfully win the Cy Young. But after him, the conversation is up for debate. Sale has probably had the best season of the remaining four pitchers in this case, but suffered an early season injury that forced him to miss time. He’s made five or more fewer starts than the other guys on the list, and thus has thrown fewer innings. I’d still put him second behind Hernandez, but the case could be made to drop him lower.

Of the remaining three, Kluber has clearly had the best season. He bests both Scherzer and Gray in IP, ERA, FIP, WHIP and WAR. His numbers put him closer to the Hernandez/Sale group than with Scherzer and Gray. However, we know that the numbers aren’t the only thing that matters when it comes to award voting.

Scherzer is the reigning AL Cy Young and plays for a first place team. Team success doesn’t matter as much to voters in Cy Young voting as it does in MVP voting – Hernandez won the award with a 13-12 record in 2010 – but it’d be naive to say it’s not a factor at all. Reputation also matters, which is far more defensible. Despite Scherzer’s numbers being less impressive than a season ago – and less impressive than Kluber’s – he’s thought of by many as one of the best pitchers in the game. He’s earned that reputation, and one could argue that he’s earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to picking him for an award versus a relative no-name like Kluber.

I buy that argument to a certain extent. It won’t be egregious if Scherzer finishes ahead of Kluber in Cy Young voting, but I’d pick Kluber third behind Hernandez and Sale. In a vacuum, is Scherzer better? Probably. But Kluber’s numbers this season are superior, and it’s not really that close. He’s averaging more innings per start, his ERA, FIP, and WHIP are far lower, and his WAR is much higher.

If Scherzer was, lets say, at a 2.75 ERA with a 2.80 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, and 4.3 WAR, then it’d be different. It’s easier to justify choosing the more established pitcher who had a slightly worse season than it is to choose him if he’s had a much worse year. It’s not that Scherzer has been bad, he just hasn’t been nearly as good as Kluber.

And though the Cy Young conversation is a fun one, it’s not all that important. Hernandez is going to win and the order in which the others finish below him doesn’t really matter that much. For Kluber, it’s just important that he’s part of the conversation. He is, and that shouldn’t change from here on out. The Indians currently sit 3.5 games back of Toronto for the second wild card spot. They shouldn’t be favored to get to the postseason, but barring a major collapse they’ll be a relevant team the rest of the way. Kluber is also on an absolute tear and is garnering, well deserved, attention from the more popular talking heads in the game.

Kluber emerged last season as a legitimate major league starter. In 24 starts, he posted a 11-5 record with a 3.85 ERA. At age 28, he still has potentially many good seasons ahead of him. He’s become one of the best starters in the game and there’s no reason why his success can’t be sustained. Kluber has a full arsenal of pitches, misses bats, doesn’t walk guys and doesn’t give up home runs.

He’s not someone like Matt Cain, whose FIP, among other advanced metrics, always suggested that he was over-performing. The metrics like Kluber, and he’s been good these past two years over a 48 start sample size. If he was meant to regress, we’d have seen it by now. Instead, he’s in the midst of the best stretch of his career. Kluber isn’t just continuing to pitch well; he’s getting better.