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NFL: What to expect from rookie wide receivers

By Lyle Graversen

May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Sammy Watkins (Clemson) poses for a photo after being selected as the number four overall pick in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft to the Buffalo Bills at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
May 8, 2014; New York, NY, USA; Sammy Watkins (Clemson) poses for a photo after being selected as the number four overall pick in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft to the Buffalo Bills at Radio City Music Hall. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports /
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Dec 16, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) and Baltimore Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (22) during the game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 16, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) and Baltimore Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (22) during the game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports /

Rookie Averages

So after looking at all these rookie seasons over the past five years, what do the numbers say should be expected from the first round draft picks in 2014? Well, if you added up all the numbers and averaged them out you come up with the following stat line:

43.3 receptions
592.2 yards
3.7 TDs

That is the average season produced by rookie first round draft picks over the past five NFL seasons. While having a receiver put up those numbers can certainly be a valuable contribution, it’s not exactly a game changer. For a point of comparison, the Bills’ Robert Woods was right around those numbers last season with a line of 40 receptions, 587 yards, and 3 TDs. Now, I think Woods has a promising NFL future and had a solid rookie season, but I wouldn’t say that he was a game changing NFL wide receiver last year. So is it fair to expect this year’s first round picks to be game changers as rookies if those are the averages?

I decided to include one more average in this little study. I wanted to look at the absolute best case scenario for drafting a wide receiver. While we could debate a few other names, I believe the five best wide receivers in the NFL are (in no particular order) Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, and Dez Bryant. I think if any of the teams that drafted a first round wideout in 2014 ended up with a player the same caliber as one of those five they would be thrilled. So what was the average rookie season of the best wide receivers in the NFL like? To find out I averaged the previously listed seasons by Green, Jones, Thomas, and Bryant with Calvin Johnson’s rookie numbers (48 rec, 756 yards, 4 TDs). That gave an average of about….

46.8 receptions
723.2 yards
5.4 TDs

So the difference in average rookie numbers of the typical first round receiver and the best in the NFL is not all that different. The biggest difference is that the elite wide receivers put up more yards and an extra TD or two. That line is similar to what Oakland wideout Denarius Moore put up last season (46 rec, 695 yards, 5 TDs). Again, Moore is a good wideout who put up solid numbers last year, but was not an elite game changing player.

So when evaluating this year’s rookie wide receivers, keep a little perspective. Even if they produce numbers similar to the best wideouts in the NFL, it will only equate to about 3 catches for 45 yards per game over a 16 game season. So while I’m as excited as the next guy to see what Sammy Watkins and Brandin Cooks will do this season, it’s probably best not to set your expectations too high.

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