Who is Kyle Hendricks?

Jul 27, 2014; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks (28) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field.at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Kyle Hendricks has burst onto the scene in Chicago the last month or so. Never a top rated prospect, he has but up top prospect numbers this far. In just under 35 innings this year he has three wins and a 2.10 ERA.

Fangraphs had Hendricks as the 10th best Cubs prospect coming into the year. John Sickles at Minorleagueball.com had him as the 16th best prospect in the organization.

I know the Cubs have a great farm system, but it’s not so great that they have a 2 ERA pitcher buried at the bottom of their prospect lists. So, is this is swing and miss from the prospect guys, or a hot start by a mediocre/average pitcher?

Honestly, it may be some of both.

Hendricks’ 2.10 ERA is quite misleading. His FIP on the year stands at 3.45. He has been very fortunate with luck on balls in play (.245 BABIP) and his strand rate (81.3%). Based on his small history, we have to assume that these will correct themselves to normal levels.

Even if those numbers regress, a 3.50 is ownable in the fantasy game if it comes with strikeouts and wins. That is not the case for Hendricks. His strikeout rate on the year is 5.50 per 9 innings. If he had innings to qualify, that would be one of the lowest strikeout rates in the game. He owns a very low 8% swinging strike rate, which backs up his low strikeout rate. He also pitches for the Cubs, so wins will be hard to come by.

His minor league numbers this year were very good. In 102.2 AAA innings this year he had a 3.59 ERA with a strikeout rate of 8.50 per 9 innings. That’s the highest strikeout rate of his minor league career. He’s typically been around 7 strikeouts per nine innings in the previous two minor league seasons. Per scouting reports, he has a 92 mph fastball and a good-to-very good change-up. Per his Fangraphs PITCHf/x stats, his fastball has averaged 88 mph, and his change-up has been solid, creating a 13% swinging strike rate.

Due to his nice change-up he may have some increase in that strikeout rate down the line, but I doubt he will ever be a strikeout pitcher. In the future he may end up as a 3.50-ish ERA pitcher with an average strikeout rate. That’s solid in the real MLB game and makes a great mid to back end starter.   It’s not so hot in the fantasy game and would only be playable in deep or NL leagues.

As far as this year goes, I’d stay away. He’s a rookie and subject to hiccups where he gets rocked. Even more so as he’s a pitch to contact pitcher. The upside in strikeouts and wins simply is not there to make up for the risk involved in relying on a rookie, pitch to contact, pitcher.