NFL: Studying how turnovers affect winning percentage

Dec 22, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) and Seattle Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas (29) celebrate after Sherman intercepted a pass thrown by Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (3) (not pictured) during the second half at CenturyLink Field. Arizona defeated Seattle 17-10. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports /

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Aug 9, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) against the Arizona Cardinals during a preseason game at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports /

Conclusions:

The NFL is a “win now” league. If a GM, coach, or quarterback doesn’t produce they won’t be given much time before they find themselves out of a job. In order for these men and their perspective teams to find success they simply must find a way to consistently win the turnover battle. In looking at the teams that have had drastic changes in their turnover differential and win/loss records it is clear that while the entire team is ultimately responsible, no two people possess as much control over the results as the head coach and starting QB.

In Kansas City and Philadelphia last season their new head coaches were instrumental in bringing a new attitude to their respective teams that helped bring about the improvements needed. At the opposite end of the spectrum were the coaching performances of Gary Kubiak, Jim Schwartz, and Mike Shanahan in their drop off seasons. Those coaches found their teams stuck in turnover “quicksand” and could not find a way to get them back out.

In terms of QB play, the teams that had drastic improvements all did so in large part thanks to their starting quarterbacks. In their three combined turnaround seasons Alex Smith, Nick Foles, and RGIII threw a COMBINED 14 interceptions in 1,218 attempts.

Think about that for a second……

That’s one interception every 87 attempts.

While fans of today’s pass happy NFL dream of finding a QB that can put up a million yards and a million TDs, the old adage of winning the turnover battle still rings true. While putting up big points is nice, if it means constantly putting the ball at risk it may not be worth it. Look no further than last year’s Super Bowl. Peyton Manning is an all time great, but the Seattle defense could still take the ball away and their QB, while not as flashy, protected the football and was patient enough to wait for the plays he needed to bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

In today’s fantasy football obsessed culture, we may not appreciate an “efficient” offense as much as an explosive one, but if that’s how a team needs to operate in order to keep the turnover numbers in their favor then recent history show that its the right call……at least as long as they have a defense that can create a few turnovers of their own.

Thanks for reading.

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