How worrisome is Javier Baez’s strikeout rate?

The first few weeks of the Javier Baez era in Chicago have reminded us a few things, including what it’s like to not be completely miserable as a Cubs fan and the sheer joy of towering home runs. They’ve also reminded us that great prospects, even ones like Baez, show up in the big leagues with legitimate warts.

Overcoming those issues is often what separates the guys who make it from those who don’t, and in the context of Baez, it’s got me thinking about strikeouts. While we’ve already seen why the Cubs infielder is such a tantalizing talent — that bat speed is honestly off the charts — he’s also got a nasty habit for flailing at pitches he should be laying off of.

The five home runs in 68 plate appearances is certainly great — that’s a pace of 44 homers per 600 PAs — but it’s difficult to ignore the 25 strikeouts. A 37 percent strikeout rate is pretty much unsustainable, and leaves one wondering which number is ultimately going to come down, his strikeout rate or homer rate.

That’s because this recent streak of play isn’t going to last, at least in this form. Baez’s overall numbers (.231/.265/.492) are above-average, but nobody gets to a 103 OPS+ by hacking into a homer every three games. It’s a testament to his raw talent that he’s still performing in spite of the issues, but eventually pitchers will start adjusting and challenging him in new ways.

So just how worried should fans be about Baez’s strikeouts, when he’s ultimately still contributing to the team? How much does the 21-year-old need to alter his approach to continue improving at the big league level?

One thing that cannot be emphasized enough is the importance of Baez addressing this issue. There isn’t a qualified hitter in baseball with a K rate near Baez’s, with Baltimore’s Chris Davis leading the sport at 33.9 percent. Only four players in all of MLB strikeout more than 30 percent of the time: Davis, Chris Carter, B.J. Upton and Adam Dunn.

Hitters may strike out more frequently now than in the past, but there’s still a threshold that pretty much every successful player meets in terms of making contact. Right now, Baez isn’t there, and while he’s not far away, it’s certainly worrisome.

The numbers bear out a player who doesn’t necessarily swing too much, but isn’t making enough contact when he does. According to FanGraphs, Baez has swung at 52.5 percent of possible pitches, a high number but one that’s in line with other sluggers like Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Braun and Yoenis Cespedes.

However, among qualified hitters, Baez’s contact rate would be the worst in baseball. He’s getting the ball on just 62.2 percent of his swings, an unsightly figure that’s several percent worse than Carter’s 65.6 percent rate. Combine that somewhat high swing rate with a downright brutal contact rate, and you’re talking about a guy who’s wasting an astonishing number of at-bats.

So there’s definitely reason to be worried about Baez, just as there’s reason to be excited. He’s indeed a special talent, but we’ve seen other gifted players foiled by similar issues. And while he didn’t discount the importance of striking out less, that’s not exactly a specific goal for him:

"“I’m not going to change my approach because I strike out a lot,” he responded. “I just have to be patient and get a good pitch to hit.”"

Now, he’s right — finding a balance between patience and aggression is often one of the greatest challenges for big league hitters. And as the above numbers revealed, his issue is less about how frequently he’s swinging and more about when he’s swinging. But there’s pretty clearly an issue with the latter.

On balls outside the strike zone, Baez has a 44 percent contact rate, compared to the league average of 66 percent. He’s not seeing nearly the same issues on balls in the zone. So it’s not unreasonable to suggest his best route to improvement is simply laying off more bad pitches, whether he considers that a “change in approach” or not.

And should Baez manage to address and fix these issues, it’s scary to consider the possibilities for the rest of the National League. Few players in the sport have his bat speed and raw power, and if he can cut back on the strikeout rate by even a few percent, it could pay huge dividends in overall production. The alternative, where he bounces around the league as a low-OBP, big-power slugger, certainly isn’t as attractive. Luckily, there seem to be clear ways for Baez to improve, and given how much better he’s gotten the past few years, that progress could certainly continue.