5 best MLB players you’ve probably never heard of
By JJ Keller
Drew Hutchison, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
2014 stats: 4.81 ERA — 4.08 FIP — 1.8 fWAR/0.9 rWAR in 144 IP
Hutchison is the one guy on this list that you can argue deserves to be unknown. As you can see, the ERA is high, and the rWAR is low. The runs-based results so far this year are not very good; but if you look past those numbers, and you should, you see a different story.
He has a much better — though still not great — 4.08 FIP, as he has done a nice job of striking out hitters (7.94 K/9), and respectable job at limiting walks (2.94 BB/9). But one of the reasons he has an unsightly ERA is that he is a fly ball pitcher who gives up more home runs than is ideal, at 1.13 HR/9.
But still, we know that FIP does a better job of projecting future performance than ERA does (here is a citation for those who want to learn more), so we should expect the ERA to trend down in the future, more in line with the ~4.00 FIP. On top of that, he was never a high home run guy in the minors, so there is some reason to believe he won’t give up quite as many home runs going forward.
His FIP numbers, and ability to eat some innings with 144, has him on pace for 2.5 fWAR or more. And while the rWAR is not nearly as kind, I am inclined to take the FIP numbers over the ERA numbers at this point in time.