The AFC West is one of the best divisions in football according to records last season. This division contained a lot of interesting story lines last season, including the resurgence of Philip Rivers. It also had the number one fantasy football running back (Jamaal Charles), the break out receiver (Keenan Allen) and the NFL’s all-time leader in passing touchdowns and yards in a single season(Peyton Manning). Now we have to look towards this season. The best way to do this is to make some wacky predictions that have some sort of statistical backing. Most people think that bold predictions are complete guesses and they pay no attention to them. They aren’t just guesses, they are educated guesses. I have backing to them.
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With Decker now a Jet, Manning’s numbers might dip. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Denver Broncos:
Bold Prediction: Peyton Manning throws for no more than 35 touchdowns in 2014.
My thinking: Freak out! I get it. “Didn’t you see what he did last year? What’s changed?” Okay, actually a lot has changed. Starting with Eric Decker (touchdown machine) now with the New York Jets. Now Manning is stuck with Emmanuel Sanders, who Peyton mentioned that he isn’t close to being on the same page with him as he was with Eric Decker and also said that that connection won’t quite be there this year. The schedule gets tougher, as they will be playing the NFC West this season. Call me crazy, but Peyton Manning won’t have a 7-touchdown game again this season. Plus, the Fantasy Douche twitter account did some crazy deep research to show that the Broncos were just running up the score in attempt to get Peyton Manning that record. No quarterback has ever thrown for 50+ touchdowns and came back and did it again. Peyton will be a top-3 quarterback but I think 35 is the max he gets to.
Chargers Keenan Allen (13) and Donald Brown (34) could have big years this year.
Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
San Diego Chargers:
Bold Prediction: Donald Brown leads the Chargers in total touches this season
My thinking: Remember back to the free agent signing and we thought, “huh?”. Well this is why. The Chargers are clearly not comfortable with the health of Ryan Mathews, or perhaps his ability to hold on to the football. A lot of people will say “where’s Danny Woodhead, isn’t he the number two running back?”, and he is. However, the Chargers don’t feel comfortable with him running the ball 20+ times a game. Donald Brown would take over the feature running back role if Ryan Mathews goes down. Donald Brown is currently going in the 13th round of fantasy drafts this season, and he’d definitely be a guy I am targeting late in drafts.
Charles could be in for a down year this season.
Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
Kansas City Chiefs:
Bold Prediction: Jamaal Charles finishes outside of the top-5 at running back!
My thinking: Crazy as it sounds, I don’t love this offensive line at all. In fact, it makes me ill. Matt Williamson of ESPN has ranked them as the 3rd worst offensive line in the NFL and he is right on the nose. The Chiefs lost three offensive lineman from last season, and the schedule has gotten a lot tougher this season. Charles rushed for 12 touchdowns last season, and looking back at his career, I would take the under on that for this season. The numbers were completely inflated last season because they were in every game. This year he already has a bruised foot. I’d imagine they would use Knile Davis in the red zone more. No running back has had back-to-back number one fantasy seasons since LaDainian Tomlinson. If I had to pick someone out of the top-5 running backs that worries me this season, it’s Jamaal Charles.
MJD should be fantasy relevant even in Oakland. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Raiders:
Bold Prediction: We will have a fantasy relevant player from Oakland!
My thinking: If you talk to anyone, everyone is completely crossing Oakland players off their list. Maurice Jones- Drew is going in the 9th round of fantasy drafts! The public is so low on Andre Holmes they are taking him below Randy Moss, and of course Matt Schaub is going undrafted in majority of leagues. I am actually beginning to come around a little bit on Maurice Jones-Drew. He has a real opportunity to make a push at a running back number two spot. I think that Andre Holmes will be a solid flex play at some point this season. So that’s not just one fantasy relevant player, that’s two!