Baltimore Orioles: Machado injury won’t derail October plans
The Baltimore Orioles minus third baseman Manny Machado are a lesser team. With a decent lead in the American League East division, the loss of Machado to right knee surgery will be quantified as September looms near.
Playing without Machado isn’t foreign to the O’s. The 22-year-old went down in September of 2013 after making the All-Star team and winning a Gold Glove. Baltimore finished 85-77 and missed the playoffs. It’s a much different situation in 2014. Baltimore is 75-56, 6.5 games up in the A.L. East with a month to spare.
Machado floundered much of the first half. He missed all of April and was suspended for his actions towards the Oakland Athletics. He began finding his groove in close proximity to the All Star break with a .301 average, .337 on-base percentage, and .458 slugging percentage. On July 5, Machado was hitting .243 and lifted his average to .278 by August 11, the day his right knee collapsed on him while batting.
Perhaps Machado would have continued trending upward, but it’s unknown if he would have regained 2013 form by September. What’s certain is Baltimore has a deep enough roster to dispel concerns regarding a final month collapse.
Their pitching staff is vastly improved and their bullpen is top five in ERA and completed saves. If they don’t win a pennant, New York or Toronto will have churned out an incredibly torrid month of winning baseball to catch them.
Home runs are a prodigious aspect of Baltimore’s offense. Although, it’s not predisposed to being a hit-or-miss lineup. They lead MLB with 168 bombs. Baltimore is sixth-best hitting .269 with runners in scoring position.
For comparison’s sake grouping American League teams, Houston and Toronto have clubbed 146 and 145 round trippers each. That’s good for third and fourth-most in baseball. Bunches of runs come via homers.
The Astros tighten up with runners in scoring position at .236. The Blue Jays .252 number lists them middle-of-the-pack. It’s common for teams who are heavily dependent on home runs to display offensive extremes with outrageous strikeout totals.
The Orioles’ aren’t in that quandary. Their 1,019 whiffs are 14th, so there’s plenty of contact during at-bats that don’t result in a shot over an outfield fence. Baltimore’s tallied the seventh-most hits (1,160) and their .730 on-base plus slugging percentage is ranked fifth.
It’s not an indefatigable offense. They have walked second-fewest in baseball and are dead last in stolen bases (33). It’s nitpicking to a degree. Buck Showalter is eerily akin to Early Weaver in that manner. He doesn’t covet speedy baserunners to manufacture scoring. He’s instilled a mental toughness and winning baseball philosophy that began the day he inherited a team with MLB’s worst record in late July of 2010.
Baltimore has a wide array of hitters in their lineup who can handle the bat, starting with Nick Markakis and J.J. Hardy at the top. Three names vital to the Orioles success without Machado are Steve Pearce, Chris Davis, and Nelson Cruz.
The ball has jumped off Pearce’s bat in 2014. He’s hitting .290 with 15 home runs and been an unlikely offensive source. In a rare organizational transaction, Pearce declined a claim put into him by Toronto and re-signed with the O’s as a free agent. Good thing for Baltimore general manager Dan Duquette. 31-year-old Pearce has manned various positions and is now at first base. It’s the most he’s ever played in his eight-year MLB career and doesn’t appear fazed as pressure mounts.
Chris Davis has played third for Showalter. The position isn’t foreign to him, but the glaring issue is at the plate. The Orioles have one of MLB’s biggest, most powerful third baseman at 6-3 and 240 pounds. He’s an easy vote for most surprising drop-off, if there were such a category.
Davis broke out when he came over to Baltimore from Texas. In 2012 and 2013 he hit a 86 home runs, with 53 launched off his bat in 2013. His average in two seasons never dipped below .270. He’s played more like the inconsistent 2008-2010 version of himself in Texas in 2014.
The power remains (23 homers), but his contact rate has dipped to perilous levels. Davis is hitting .190 with a .291 on-base percentage, and 158 strikeouts in 113 games played. His 2014 season template appears to have written itself. A terrific September for the mammoth slugger would vanquish memories of his last five months. And the O’s would gladly accept it.
Nelson Cruz has shaken off bad publicity for suspension via 2013 PED usage. Credible or not, Baltimore signed the 34-year-old to a one year, $8 million contract. He’s been a top 10 offensive force in home runs (34), RBI (88), and slugging percentage (.508). The American League home run leader’s presence as bona fide clean-up hitter behind Adam Jones has lengthened this batting order.
Machado publicly admitted his knee physiology to be “abnormal.” Procedures on both these knees in the past two years aim to correct this flaw permanently. Baltimore is better with a healthy Manny Machado, but this injury won’t severely impede their quest for a pennant and deep October run in 2014.