Quarterbacks: Should you wait on them?
Any expert you talk to will tell you that quarterback is incredibly deep and you can wait on them. The keyword is ‘can’, you don’t have to. Personally, I would not touch a quarterback in round one unless I was in a 16-to-20 team league and I was sitting between the 16th and 20th overall picks.
Aug 22, 2014; Green Bay, WI, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) during the game against the Oakland Raiders at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
The ideal strategy: Relax, the position in really deep. I just had a 12-team draft last week, in that draft I passed on quarterback for the first two rounds. Of course, I missed out on the top-3 quarterbacks. However, if a top-3 guy on my board is there, I’ll draft him in round three. Otherwise, I’ll take Stafford in the fourth round or i’ll wait even longer and take Matt Ryan/ Jay Cutler/ Tony Romo
Chris Brent’s Quarterback Rankings: (Updated August 29th, 2014)
1.) Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers)
2.) Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints)
3.) Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos)
4.) Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)
5.) Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons)
6.) Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
7.) Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys)
8.) Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears)
9.) Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
10.) Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)
11.) Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks)
12.) Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)
13.) Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
14.) Robert Griffin III (Washington Redskins)
15.) Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers)
16.) Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers)
17.) Carson Palmer (Arizona Cardinals)
18.) Andy Dalton (Cincinnati Bengals)
19.) Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
20.) Jake Locker (Tennesse Titans)
21.) Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs)
22.) Eli Manning (New York Giants)
23.) Matt Cassel (Minnesota Vikings)
24.) Geno Smith (New York Jets)
Running Backs: Get them early!
Running backs dominate the first round, and have done so ever since I started playing fantasy football. However, after last season where five of the top-10 running backs busted, people are starting to have doubts if they can trust this position. Last season was the worst year for first-round running back busts, as five of them busted. Before last season, the most running backs that busted in the top-10 since 2008, was one bust per top-10. Even though these stats are true, people want to remember what has most recently happened, and they are starting to sway on running backs.
Dec 1, 2013; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) against the Chicago Bears at Mall of America Field at H.H.H. Metrodome. The Vikings defeated the Bears 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
The ideal strategy: I go after running backs in my first round because this is just a strategy that has worked for me. If you can hit on a running back early, your team is set. You won’t have to look through the watered down position for a backup running back who averages five touches a game, and you have to start him because you failed to take running back early. I think there is a big five at the position (Charles, Forte, Lacy, Peterson, and McCoy) even though most experts call it the “big 3” and leave out Forte and Lacy. Then I have three other running backs who I think should be locks for the first round (Murray, Bernard, and Ball) which some are highly worried about becoming their “RB1”. Don’t worry, Draft a back.
Chris Brent’s Running Backs Rankings: (Updated August 29th, 2014)
1.) Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings)
2.) LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles)
3.) Matt Forte (Chicago Bears)
4.) Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers)
5.) Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs)
6.) Montee Ball (Denver Broncos)
7.) DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys)
8.) Giovani Bernard (Cincinnati Bengals)
9.) Doug Martin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
10.) Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks)
11.) Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins)
12.) Andre Ellington (Arizona Cardinals)
13.) Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers)
14.) Zac Stacy (St. Louis Rams)
15.) Arian Foster (Houston Texans)
16.) Frank Gore (San Francisco 49es)
17.) Toby Gerhart (Jacksonville Jaguars)
18.) Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers)
19.) Joique Bell (Detroit Lions)
20.) Shane Vereen (New England Patriots)
21.) Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens)
22.) Trent Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
23.) Ben Tate (Cleveland Browns)
24.) Steven Ridley (New England Patriots)
25.) C.J. Spiller (Buffalo Bills)
26.) Reggie Bush (Detroit Lions)
27.) Chris Johnson (New York Jets)
28.) Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills)
29.) Rashad Jennings (New York Giants)
30.) Maurice Jones-Drew (Oakland Raiders)
31.) Andre Williams (New York Giants)
32.) Shonn Greene (Tennessee Titans)
33.) LeGarrette Blount (Pittsburgh Steelers)
34.) Steven Jackson (Atlanta Falcons)
35.) Knowshon Moreno (Miami Dolphins)
36.) Bishop Sankey (Tennessee Titans)
37.) Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati Bengals)
38.) Carlos Hyde (San Francisco 49ers)
39.) Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints)
40.) Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins)
41.) Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints)
42.) DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)
43.) Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers)
44.) Benny Cunningham (St. Louis Rams)
45.) Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons)
46.) Christine Michael (Seattle Seahawks)
47.) Donald Brown (San Diego Chargers)
48.) Jonathan Grimes (Houston Texans)
49.) Alfred Blue (Houston Texans)
50.) Darren Sproles (Philadelphia Eagles)
Wide Receivers: Making a late first round push!
Like I said before, the ADP on running backs are dropping and the top receivers are rising! Receiver is safe, and I like the idea of picking late in the first because I can wrap up my risk at running back and get my top-6 wide receiver in the second round. Receivers are one of the most consistent positions in fantasy football. They are the definition of safe. Out of the top six last year (same as this year), 5 of the 6 receivers finished in the top seven of wide receivers last season. The one that didn’t was Julio Jones, and that’s because of injury. He was on pace to tie Josh Gordon in fantasy points.
Nov 28, 2013; Detroit, MI, USA; Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (81) scores a touchdown during the third quarter against the Green Bay Packers during a NFL football game on Thanksgiving at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports
Ideal strategy: Locking up your stud receiver in the second round is always key for me. I like having that go-to guy that I can count on week-in, and week-out to get me the points I need.
Chris Brent’s Wide Receiver Rankings: Updated August 29th, 2014
1.) Calvin Johnson (Detroit Lions)
2.) Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys)
3.) DeMaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos)
4.) Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons)
5.) A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals)
6.) Brandon Marshall (Chicago Bears)
7.) Jordy Nelson (Green Bay Packers)
8.) Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers)
9.) Alshon Jeffery (Chicago Bears)
10.) Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers)
11.) Andre Johnson (Houston Texans)
12.) Randall Cobb (Green Bay Packers)
13.) Roddy White (Atlanta Falcons)
14.) Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers)
15.) Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals)
16.) Cordarrelle Patterson (Minnesota Vikings)
17.) Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
18.) Emmanuel Sanders (Denver Broncos)
19.) Pierre Garcon (Washington Redskins)
20.) Percy Harvin (Seattle Seahawks)
21.) Michael Floyd (Arizona Cardinals)
22.) Jeremy Maclin (Philadelphia Eagles)
23.) Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina Panthers)
24.) T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts)
25.) Julian Edelman (New England Patriots)
26.) Wes Welker (Denver Broncos)
27.) Torrey Smith (Baltimore Ravens)
28.) Victor Cruz (New York Giants)
29.) Mike Wallace (Miami Dolphins)
30.) DeSean Jackson (Washington Redskins)
31.) Terrence Williams (Dallas Cowboys)
32.) Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis Colts)
33.) Eric Decker (New York Jets)
34.) Golden Tate (Detroit Lions)
35.) Marques Colston (New Orleans Saints)
36.) Kendall Wright (Tennessee Titans)
37.) Riley Cooper (Philadelphia Eagles)
38.) Rueben Randle (New York Giants)
39.) Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks)
40.) Brandin Cooks (New Orleans Saints)
41.) Sammy Watkins (Buffalo Bills)
42.) Dwayne Bowe (Kansas City Chiefs)
43.) Justin Hunter (Tennessee Titans)
44.) Marquise Lee (Jacksonville Jaguars)
45.) Aaron Dobson (New England Patriots)
46.) Greg Jennings (Minnesota Vikings)
47.) Hakeem Nicks (Indianapolis Colts)
48.) Steve Smith (Baltimore Ravens)
49.) Anquan Boldin (San Francisco 49ers)
50.) Andre Holmes (Oakland Raiders)
Tight Ends: Roll the dice!
After the top three tight ends, it’s a complete dice roll. You have no idea what these other tight ends will be able to score for you on a week-in, week-out basis. If you have done mock drafts, you see people reaching for tight ends like crazy. I’ve seen both Rob Gronkowski and Julius Thomas go in the second round, which made me go back and look at some more numbers. I looked at a system called value based drafting, which compares value between positions. In a 10-team league, even after Jimmy Graham’s ridiculously good season, he still wasn’t a first round pick. He finished 11th in VBD scoring. The other surprising thing was that Graham was the only tight end in the top thirty, meaning in the first three rounds only one tight end should be off the board. People reach for this position and I don’t want to.
Aug 8, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph (82) catches a pass against the Oakland Raiders in the first quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. Vikings win 10-6. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Ideal strategy: Wait! I’ll take Jimmy Graham in the first round, but if I don’t get him, I’ll just wait for Kyle Rudolph in round 6 or 7. Do people always forget the coaches that have a track record of good tight ends? Gary Kubiak (Dennis Pitta), Norv Turner (Kyle Rudolph), Rob Chudzinski (Dwayne Allen). Even though Chudzinski is only a special assistant on offense, he could really push the Colts to throw to the tight end.
Chris Brent’s Tight End Rankings: Updated August 29th, 2014
1.) Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints)
2.) Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)
3.) Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots)
4.) Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys)
5.) Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota Vikings)
6.) Vernon Davis (San Francisco 49ers)
7.) Jordan Reed (Washington Redskins)
8.) Dennis Pitta (Baltimore Ravens)
9.) Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles)
10.) Antonio Gates (San Diego Chargers)
11.) Jordan Cameron (Cleveland Browns)
12.) Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers)
13.) Martellus Bennett (Chicago Bears)
14.) Ladarius Green (San Diego Chargers)
15.) Charles Clay (Miami Dolphins)
16.) Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis Colts)
17.) Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)
18.) Richard Rogers (Green Bay Packers)
19.) Heath Miller (Pittsburgh Steelers)
20.) Delanie Walker (Tennessee Titans)