Fantasy football: Bold predictions for the 2014 season

This is it! This is my final preseason piece before I roll out the week one fantasy football mailbag right here on FantasyCPR. I will also give you the breakouts/busts for week one, and I will even top it off with my week one rankings. Once a year, I make five bold, but possible, predictions that could help you strike fantasy football nirvana. There won’t be anything along the lines of Matt Cassel throwing 60 touchdowns because that is quite frankly nearly impossible. I’m a guy who likes to be right and in order to be right, you have to tend to lean a bit more conservative in these predictions while remaining bold at the same time.

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I have never wrote one of these before, meaning I can’t tell you how I’ve done in the past with these predictions. I hope you enjoy them!

Aug 15, 2014; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham (80) dunks over the goal post following a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during a preseason game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sport

BOLD PREDICTION NUMBER 1: JIMMY GRAHAM CATCHES 20 TOUCHDOWN PASSES THIS SEASON!

My thinking on this:

Go back to last year and look at the numbers that Jimmy Graham was able to provide for you. If you didn’t look, he caught 86 passes on 144 targets for 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns, coming to a total of 211 fantasy points. If you dig deeper into those games, you will have two games pop up that seemed quite unusual for Jimmy Graham. Week 6 at New England he managed to score zero fantasy points and in week 15 against the Rams he only scored two fantasy points.

Last year, a lot of people don’t understand the pain that Jimmy Graham was actually going through at the time. Graham was playing through a torn plantar fascia in his foot. Everyone who has ever had this injury talks about it like being stabbed in the foot with a knife every time you run on it. I spoke to a doctor and asked him about this injury and he said that in order for it to heal properly, you should be out 7-12 weeks. Jimmy Graham played in every football game last season with this injury.

Aug 22, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch (24) breaks a tackle by Chicago Bears strong safety Danny McCray (29) to score a touchdown during the first quarter at CenturyLink Field. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

BOLD PREDICTION NUMBER 2: MARSHAWN LYNCH HITS THAT RUNNING BACK WALL!

My thinking:

This is a tough one to sell because of the consistency that Marshawn Lynch has provided fantasy owners over the past three to four seasons. However, I avoid the numbers that I hold in my face. CBSSports Fantasy Analysts Jamey Eisenberg wrote a great article on this “400-touch” rule which doesn’t end very well for running backs that reach that mark. In the article he goes in-depth on the players that had succeeded and the players that had failed miserably after reaching this mark.

From Jamey Eisenberg:

"“There were 17 running backs who had 400-plus touches on 27 occasions over that span. Of those 27 times, only five — Edgerrin James (2004), LaDainian Tomlinson (2005), James again (2005), Adrian Peterson (2009) and Ray Rice (2011) — produced an increase in Fantasy points the following season.The 22 other examples where a running back hit 400 touches over that span produced negative results. Two running backs — Tiki Barber and Ricky Williams — retired following consecutive seasons with 400 touches. And nine times a running back suffered an injury — Arian Foster (2013), Peterson (2013), Michael Turner (2009), Steven Jackson (2007), Larry Johnson (2007), Shaun Alexander (2006), Clinton Portis (2006), Curtis Martin (2005) and Jamal Lewis (2004) — that caused him to miss games following a 400-touch campaign. Some of those injuries could be attributed to the heavy workload the year before.”"

So when you see these numbers, the odds clearly aren’t in Marshawn Lynch’s favor. I say he hits the wall and goes south, but if anyone can overcome the odds, it’s “Beast Mode”.

Aug 3, 2014; Canton, OH, USA; New York Giants running back Andre Williams (44) carries the ball against the Buffalo Bills in the 2014 Hall of Fame game at Fawcett Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

BOLD PREDICTION NUMBER 3: WE WILL BE TALKING ABOUT ANDRE WILLIAMS AS A FIRST ROUND FANTASY PICK NEXT SEASON!

My Thinking:

For the last two years, we have talked about some second year players as first round fantasy picks. Two years ago, we had three sophomores being selected in the first round. Doug Martin second, Trent Richardson eighth, and Alfred Morris at eleven. Now this year we have Eddie Lacy going fifth, and we have Montee Ball going eleventh. So who breaks out this year? Who is that guy that makes a first round fantasy push for us next year?

It’s Andre Williams. The guy is a power runner with the ability to be a three down back in the league. If you look at his role, he is going to be scoring all the rushing touchdowns for this offense, and he is backing up Rashad Jennings. I actually like Jennings, but it’s fair to say that Jennings is no stranger to injury. Once Jennings misses a game, Williams will seize that opportunity to show Tom Coughlin that he can be the guy. If he does, then we are looking at a fantasy football 2015 stud!

Aug 23, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (84) celebrates as he scores a touchdown in the first half against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

BOLD PREDICTION NUMBER 4: CORDARRELLE PATTERSON IS THE NUMBER ONE FANTASY WIDE RECEIVER!

My Thinking:

Right when Minnesota hired Norv Turner to become their offensive coordinator, the very first thing I did was go compare Cordarrelle Patterson and Josh Gordon. There numbers in the 40-yard dash were separated by 0.01 in Patterson’s favor, and they were separated in the vertical leap by one-inch in Patterson’s favor. Then you look at the hight and weight, and Josh Gordon holds one inch and 5-pounds on Cordarrelle, however that inch isn’t a big deal because Patterson can jump an inch higher. So basically when going for the ball they are at the same height.

This is a huge stretch because I don’t think the Vikings offense can be good enough to support the number one wide receiver and the number one running back, meaning something would probably have to happen to Adrian Peterson. Josh Gordon was able to put up these numbers from the Browns literally having no running game, and the Vikings have Adrian Peterson to fall back on. Maybe that will just open things more up for Patterson. I have him currently inside the top-15 at wide receiver. Remember over the last five weeks of the regular season he scored a touchdown every week. He capped that five week stretch off with six total touchdowns (three rushing and three receiving).

Jul 26, 2014; Spartanburg, SC, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (13) makes a catch during training camp at Gibbs Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

BOLD PREDICTION NUMBER 5: KELVIN BENJAMIN PUSHES HIMSELF INTO THE TOP 12 FANTASY WIDE RECEIVERS THIS SEASON

My Thinking:

I have been sold on Benjamin since day one. I looked at the receiving corps in Carolina and said “I don’t trust Jerricho Cotchery, Tiquan Underwood or Tavarres King”. So back in late May, I already had Benjamin sitting on top of my Panthers wide receiver list, and then after preseason I can’t resist. He’s a top 24 wide receiver for me right now. That sounds crazy, but Cam Newton has got to get the ball to someone, and Benjamin has all the tools. He is 6-foot-5, and he can go up in traffic and catch the football. He has struggled with his hands at times, but most of the top wide receivers lead the NFL in drops. I think that Benjamin has a real opportunity at double digit touchdowns this season and can make an impact for you right now.

Of course, if for some reason Cam Newton’s ribs are more serious and he’s out several weeks, then forget about it. But I think he plays week one, and I think he will be looking for Benjamin often.

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