Danny Welbeck’s arrival shows Arsene Wenger won’t change his ways

Arsenal fans went into the final day of the transfer window dreaming of Falcao and few of them would have been breaking out the champagne when the club ended up with Danny Welbeck instead.

The consensus has long been that Arsenal were a ’30 goal a season’ striker short of a sustained title challenge but instead of shelling out the $40 million or so which would have been required to secure the services of the Colombian for 12 months Arsene Wenger decided to take a gamble on a relatively inexpensive and unproven young Englishman.

In the modern market $26 million represents an eminently reasonable price for an England international who is still just 23 years old and Welbeck has plenty of potential but, averaging a goal approximately every five games, he is not the proven marksmen which Arsenal supporters have been hoping for.

Falcao supplements a Manchester United strikeforce which already included Robin Van Persie and Wayne Rooney, Chelsea replenished their attacking resources with the additions of Diego Costa and Loic Remy while Manchester City have Stefan Jovetic, Edin Dzeko and Sergio Aguero competing for places and Liverpool have the luxury of choosing between Daniel Sturridge, Mario Balotelli and Rickie Lambert.

Jun 4, 2014; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; England forward Danny Welbeck (11) warms up prior to a game against Ecuador at Sun Life Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

By contrast Arsenal went into the season with Olivier Giroud as the first choice striker, a player who managed a modest 22 goals in 51 appearances last season. The backup plan was Yaya Sanogo who has yet to score despite being involved in 16 competitive matches for the first team.

Everyone, with the apparent exception of Wenger, felt that going into the season with such a paucity of proven goalscorers represented a ridiculous risk for a club with title winning pretensions. The already intense level of scrutiny surrounding his decision not to sign an out and out striker increased to fever pitch once Giroud was ruled out four months after fracturing a tibia in only the second EPL game of the campaign.

The question was; ‘how would Wenger respond?’ And up until the dying hours of the transfer window on Monday night many fans feared the manager would do nothing at all but in the end he made a move which was typically opportunistic, taking advantage of Man Utd’s big money Falcao deal to snap up a striker who suddenly found himself surplus to requirements.

Picking up an unwanted fourth choice striker from a rival was not exactly the sort of deal which fans had envisioned, particularly as Arsenal are known to have significant funds at their disposal these days, but signing Welbeck is exactly the type of gamble with which Wenger has made a name for himself.

The list of strikers he has turned into elite EPL performers is impressive and includes names such as Van Persie, Emmanuel Adebayor and Thierry Henry, none of whom were at the peak of their powers prior to signing for Arsenal.  Wenger is presumably hoping Welbeck will go on to have the same sort of goalscoring impact as some of these illustrious names.

It’s a big ask for a player who scored ten times in 36 appearances last season but there is precedent for strikers to suddenly find form under Wenger. Henry found the back of the net just three times in his sole season with Juventus but bagged 26 the following year at Arsenal, although admittedly Adebayor and Van Persie both took a little longer to become prolific.

While Welbeck’s goalscoring record is underwhelming the statistics do come with a caveat because he has been played out of position for virtually his entire Man Utd career. With Arsenal already in possession of an impressive collection of wide players he has presumably been signed as a central striker and will finally get a chance to prove himself in his preferred role.

It is an opportunity which Welbeck should relish but one that brings an inordinate amount of pressure because he will be expected to make an immediate impact. With Giroud out until the new year there is no time for him to be gradually introduced to first team football at Arsenal and it is imperative that he can hit the ground running with goals and assists.

Henry, Van Persie and Adebayor all had the opportunity to train for a prolonged period with the first team and makes a series of substitute appearances before being handed the mantle as Arsenal’s first choice frontman. Welbeck will not be so lucky, he needs to step up and fill the void left by Giroud’s injury straightaway and his ability to do so should dictate whether or not this surprise transfer goes down as yet another Wenger coup.

The Arsenal manager has been handed a much bigger budget than never before but is reluctant to splash out on big name players because he thinks there is better value to be found elsewhere. Ignoring Falcao in favour of a last grasp move for Welbeck was an archetypal gambit which shows that, while he finally has the funds at his disposal to operate at the top end of the market, Wenger still has an eye for a bargain and won’t change his ways.