The second week of the college football season is upon us and teams are still trying to find their identities. Most teams are playing non-conference opponents and a weaker schedule at this point in the season.
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Still, we looked at the spreads of the games that had them and broke it down to help you navigate the schedule of the Top 25 this weekend.
Saturday
Florida Atlantic at No. 2 Alabama 12 pm ET
Alabama are 41 point favorites against Florida Atlantic. I don’t like large spreads, but you’d have to think there is no way Alabama covers this big spread. They only put up 33 against West Virginia last week, albeit a better team than Florida Atlanta. In 2012 when the two teams met, they Alabama won 40-7, not covering the spread or even scoring as many points against Florida Atlantic. These are different teams but I don’t think you can bet on Alabama to cover. Betting the over, which is 50.5, might be the better option.
No. 4 Oklahoma at Tulsa 4 pm ET
The Sooners are heavy favorites on the road in this one with an average of a 24.5 spread. They won last week against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs by a 32 point margin, so covering doesn’t seem to be an issue. Tulsa is also 1-5-1 in their last seven games against Oklahoma and 2-5 in their last seven home games. Sooners cover.
No. 20 Kansas State at Iowa State 12 pm ET
Kansas State goes on the road as 12 point favorites. They walloped the Cyclones at home last year but the three seasons before that were a lot close. I still think you can take Kansas State to cover here.
No. 24 Missouri at Toledo
Missouri is only favored by 6.5 points against Toldeo. It seems kind of shocking that a top-25 team is only favored by less than a touchdown against Toledo, even with their struggles against South Dakota State, which was still a 20 point win. I think Mizzou covers.
No. 14 USC at No. 13 Stanford 3:30 pm ET
USC goes on the road to play Stanford as three point underdogs, though the line has drifted to 2.5. You’d think USCC is turning around under a new head coach. Unfortunately Stanford has a tremendous home record, and USC is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games when playing Stanford and they’re 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 road games.
No. 15 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt 4:30 pm ET
Ole Miss comes into this game as 20 point favorites. Mississippi is 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 games against Vanderbilt. With the spread so large, you’d think Vanderbilt should cover.
No. 7 Michigan State at No. 3 Oregon 6:30 pm ET
Oregon are 13 point favorites in this Top-10 clash in Eugene. It is an intriguing match up pitting Oregon’s offense against Michigan State’s defense. The trend here is that Oregon is 2-4 against the spread in their last six home games and 1-5 against the spread in their last six games period. I think you’d have to go with Michigan State to cover given those numbers, but the real draw might be the over/under at 56 points.
San Jose State at No. 5 Auburn 7 pm ET
Auburn open as 30 point favorites against San Jose State. I hate huge spreads like this but it is one that is tempting. It seems like they’re expecting a bit of a shoot out with the over/under at 64, but I think Auburn should cover at home, barely. Maybe in the 48-16 style Oklahoma won by last week.
No. 17 Arizona State at New Mexico 7 pm ET
Arizona State are 26.5 favorites on the road, I don’t think there is anyway they win by that much on the road. It is just too large of a spread. Arizona State is also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.
East Carolina at No. 21 South Carolina 7 pm ET
South Carolina open as 14 point favorites at home against East Carolina. It is somewhat mind boggling that this spread is smaller than that of two SEC teams playing one another. East Carolina is 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games, many of which probably weren’t in SEC country. South Carolina bounces back and covers.
Michigan at No. 16 Notre Dame 7:30 pm ET
An interesting “rivalry” match up between the two. Notre Dame opened favored by five points at home to the unranked Michigan Wolverines, but that line has dropped to 3.5. This one is a little bit tricky. Michigan is 7-15-1 against the spread in their last 23 games on the road. They’re 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games against Notre Dame.
On the flip side, Notre Dame is 1-4 against the spread in the last five games against Notre Dame regardless of location. The last two years the game was won by a spread larger than what it is this year. If you find 3.5, I think you take Notre Dame.
Virginia Tech at No. 8 Ohio State
An interesting match up with Ohio State sitting as 11.5 point favorites. Virginia Tech is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games and 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 road games. Buckeyes cover in this one.
San Diego State at No. 21 North Carolina 8 pm ET
North Carolina are 15 point favorites at home here. There are no real trends to look at in this one, I think you just have to operate under the faith that the Tarheels cover against an inferior opponent.
Memphis at No. 11 UCLA 10 pm ET
UCLA are 24 point favorites against Memphis. The line is large but close to what you might expect. This one doesn’t really have any trend to examine other than UCLA is 0-1 against the spread this year, in a road game. I think they win but not by this much.