National League MVP coming from an unlikely place
Tradition is going to have to be broken when it comes to this year’s National League Most Valuable Player. I’m imagining some voters breaking out in a cold sweat filled with horror as they have to think outside of a singular mindset.
Surprisingly, this isn’t about advanced statistics versus traditional stats that’s infested the American League voting the last two seasons as Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera won the MVP over Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout.
Unless the voters decide to pull an absolute stunner, the National League MVP will be either Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton or Los Angeles Dodgers Clayton Kershaw. The two players have separated themselves from all other contenders.
Stanton leads the National League in WAR for hitters ( 5.9/Fangraphs), home runs (36), slugging percentage (.566), OPS (.968), OPS+ (163), fifth in runs scored (86) and is the only player in the NL with a OBP over .400.
The Marlins are currently 67-71. Since the BBWAA has been in charge of the MVP voting in 1933 only four players have won the award on a losing team — Hank Sauer in 1952, Ernie Banks in 1958 and 1959 plus Andre Dawson in 1987. All of them played for the Chicago Cubs.
Kershaw leads the National League in WAR (6.0 Fangraphs), wins (17), K/9 (10.74), ERA (1.70), has the second best BB/9 (1.33), and is third in HR/9 (.48).
The Dodgers ace is obviously a pitcher. The last starter to win the NL MVP was Bob Gibson in 1968. Between 1933 and 1968 eight different pitchers won the award. In the 46 years after not a single one. The last time a pitcher finished in the top five of the voting was Greg Maddux in 1995 when he placed third behind winner Barry Larkin and Dante Bichette.
To be fair, I do need to point out Justin Verlander won the AL MVP in 2011.
We don’t have to look far to see a situation where the an emphasis on “winning” and ignoring another deserving candidate plus a pitcher was done on the ballot. In 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen was a deserving winner of the NL MVP, but he blew away the competition.
Finishing second was Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt whose offensive season profiled pretty similar to McCutchen’s. He also had significantly more home runs and RBI. The Pirates starter obviously had more positional value playing center field versus first base.
Kershaw closed 2013 with an ERA of 1.83 and his strikeout/walk numbers weren’t as spectacular as this season, but he was still extremely effective. The lefty finished seventh in the voting.
There’s no doubt I’m nitpicking with this point yet it still does an effective job showing what voters have emphasized in the past. Goldschmidt played on a .500 team and didn’t receive one first place vote. Kershaw couldn’t crack the top five with an ERA under 2.00. Both deserved to be given more credit for the seasons they put together.
There are seven teams competing to advance to the postseason in the NL during 2014 — Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.
The best position players on those teams have been Jonathan Lucroy, Carlos Gomez Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Jason Hayward, Justin Upton, Jhonny Peralta, Andrew McCutchen and Yasiel Puig.
By any measure none of those players are more deserving of the NL MVP than Stanton or Kershaw.
As long as the award goes to one of those two and voters buck the trend of years past, they will have done justice for the prestigious honor.