NBA: A milder Heat with the Suns setting

Phoenix and Miami are two franchises which seem to be going in opposite directions.

After making their fourth straight NBA Finals appearance, the Heat lost LeBron James to free agency, and with him went their championship window. Dark days are ahead for an aging remaining core on South Beach. Conversely, expected to be one of the worst teams in the league last year, the Phoenix Suns almost made the playoffs in the historically tough Western Conference. Adding to that momentum with three first round picks and the outright theft of free agent point guard Isaiah Thomas from the Kings, the Suns are rising.

If I may make a couple of bold predictions, I think neither narrative will hold true for the coming season.

Miami Won’t Be That Bad

The Heat will be worse in 2014/15 than they were at any time in the LeBron era, that much is all but assured. However, they won’t fall off to nearly the extent that has been predicted. In fact, it would not be a total surprise if they were competing for home court advantage in their first round playoff match-up towards the end of the season.

Part of the reason while their fall will be arrested was the astute way in which the team responded from losing James. While one option would have been to blow the team up completely, once Chris Bosh signaled his intent to return, a bottom-out rebuild was never on the cards. Thus, adding Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts (and taking a flyer on Danny Granger returning to some degree of impactfulness) in free agency went some way towards filling the gap left by James.

Deng has never been quite as good as James on either end of the floor, but can do a passable “poor man’s LeBron” imitation, soaking up minutes, playing above-average or better defense and providing versatile if not terribly efficient scoring. McRoberts has quietly developed into perhaps the best passing big man in the game, and if his newly discovered three-point stroke from 2013/14 proves not to have been a fluke, he becomes an extremely interesting piece as well.

But the bigger reason why Miami won’t drop off as much as expected is not their new additions, but their remaining talent.  Dwyane Wade’s health is of course a major question mark.  Brian Windhorst has reported Wade has redoubled his offseason training regimen this summer, focusing on weight loss to allow his troublesome knees to better hold up over a full season. Certainly, Wade will have a chip the size of a sequoia (the tree, not the car) on his shoulder based on the sheer number of critics writing him off.

The single most important aspect keeping the Heat from dropping off will be Bosh. Expect the 30-year old big man to have an absolute monster year to remind everyone exactly why he was considered a worthy member of a “big 3” with James and Wade. He has shown in spurts over the last few years that with Wade or especially James out of the lineup, he can still be the extremely efficient high usage scorer he was for his all-star seasons in Toronto. This change in his role will also allow Bosh to return to being a quality rebounder.

In essence, though they won’t be able to replicate James’ MVP-level of performance, spreading those responsibilities among the new signings along with largest shares of the pie for the remaining stars will cushion the still substantial blow of that departure.

The Phoenix Suns Will Disappoint

Aside from just missing the playoffs, almost nothing went wrong for Phoenix i 2013/14. Nearly every player on the roster outperformed every realistic expectation, while the collective jelled quickly under the surprisingly astute leadership of rookie coach Jeff Hornacek. Just from that standpoint alone, the team is due some degree of regression as career years don’t tend to repeat. Especially for seven or eight guys all at once.

Further, while nothing went really wrong off the court last season, this year has already started poorly on that front. Defensive ace P.J. Tucker will miss the first three games, suspended for committing “super extreme DUI” this summer.  Rising star and restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe’s contract negotiations have started to become acrimonious. Bledsoe will enter the year either feeling slighted by the team, in a contract year (with all the chemistry destroying possibilities that entails) or both.

Meanwhile, the Suns elected to let Channing Frye depart for Orlando in free agency. While on a strict talent basis, the Suns did add Thomas on the cheap, with Bledsoe and Goran Dragic in place, the Suns needed Frye’s ability to stretch the floor in the pick-and-pop more than they needed a third dynamic point guard.

Team optimists point to the continued improvement of Markieff Morris as a means to replace the loss of Frye, but I’m skeptical. Frye was a truly elite stretch big man last season, whereas a great deal of Morris’ improvement was stepping in from the arc (he cut his rate of attempting 3 pointers nearly in half, yet still shot a career low 31.5 percent from deep) and operating as sort of a LaMarcus Aldridge light. Morris is unlikely to provide nearly the sort of spacing created by Frye. Nor do Morris and Dragic have the seemingly telepathic understanding of the two-man game as did Dragic and Frye.

Meanwhile, none of Phoenix’s plethora of picks is poised to help this season. Though T.J. Warren impressed in Las Vegas Summer League, he might struggle to translate his game into the NBA as he’s caught tweener limbo between bullyball wing and quick power forward. With the addition of Thomas, 18th overall selection Tyler Innis becomes the fourth point guard on the roster unlike to get enough minutes to contribute even if he were ready. Bogdan Bogdanovic is having a decent FIBA World Cup, but is likely staying in Europe for a few more years.

The draft haul was disappointing in a way, because the sheer number of young assets encompassed by those picks as well as last years’ selections Alex Len and Archie Goodwin could have led an intriguing package of a star-level player at one of the front-court positions.  Despite seeming to be a natural fit for Kevin Love, Phoenix was never really rumored to be involved in that chase.

By failing to move aggressively forward, the Suns are running the extreme risk of falling back. The good luck and good feeling from last season aren’t going to last indefinitely as the sheer number of young players on the roster will start to agitate for more minutes and opportunities. Unlike 2013/14, the Suns and their frenetic, free-wheeling style won’t take anyone by surprise this season either.

Finally, even though Phoenix needs to pass one of last year’s playoff teams to get in this year, they might not be the most likely team to crash that party.  While everything went right for Phoenix last year, nearly everything went wrong for New Orleans. Not only have the Pellies addressed some of their defensive issues with the addition of Omer Asik, it’s hard to imagine them having worse luck in terms of health. Plus, Anthony Davis is coming to destroy us all sooner rather than later.

NBA history is replete with instances of one year’s surprise package being the next year’s disappointments, the “We Believe” Warriors and last years Knicks being two recent examples. The Suns are in more danger than supporters might like to admit of being the latest victim of that trend.