Head to Head Playoffs: Good, Bad Ideas and Strategies
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
The head to head playoffs are either here, or almost here. Personally I am in a dogfight for the last playoff spot in a money league. I have also made the championship match in each of the four years we’ve had this league, so I have a reputation to uphold.
In one of those years, I made the championship as the 6th seed and tied Clave (who was 4th that year) and lost the championship with the higher seed taking the tiebreaker.
That year was interesting, I mean we had the 4th seed facing off against the 6th seed in the championship in a fairly competitive league. Well, of that league, I would put Clave and I in the Top-3 favorites to win it all with the other favorite being. Spoiler alert: The other was Dixon, the other original Crackerjack, who won the league the year before and after. He was fifth that year but had an unfortunate match-up in Round 1 (Clave).
So why would I, without hesitation call us the favorites to win it all in years where we were the bottom three to make the playoffs? We know how to manage.
Managing is SO important in crunch time in fantasy baseball, but especially in head-to-head leagues. Of course you do have to have a solid core of guys that you can rely on. However drafting is not nearly as important in fantasy baseball as other fantasy sports. Throughout the season, you can build a solid squad come playoff time you assess your bankable stats and where you need to get creative. Creativity is sometimes the best way to a great new strategy.
Some of the most creative strategies I have seen include:
- Dropping all closers and just go starter heavy pitching.
- Streaming in hitters based on schedule
- Relying on hitting and going predominantly relief pitchers
Strategy 1: You are safer than the other two because starters can account for 4 of the 5 main pitching categories. If you claim those in a standard 10-team league, then you only need two categorical wins in hitting.
However, head to head is only a week, not a season. If you have a few bad starts in that time, it can kill your ERA and WHIP. Then you find yourself scrambling to win extra hitting categories, which may be a roll of the dice.
Strategy 2: Pretty much the polar opposite of Strategy 1 as you hope to dominate hitting and hope for the best in pitching. The problem is that if you don’t get that production, you have the opposite — yet similar — problem from Strategy 1.
It is also unlikely that there are many reliable bats sitting in free agency at the end of the season. So you are rolling with guys on hot streaks, which don’t always last.
Strategy 3: This one is tricky unless you have VERY bankable hitters. RP’s can only really nail down saves, ERA, and WHIP…MAYBE Ks if you have guys like Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel. So you are hoping for three pitching categories and three hitting ones.
Well it is great if you know your team can mash or maybe you are built for AVG, Runs, and Steals. Either way, you need to be sure. Because if you cannot nail down those three, it really doesn’t matter how sharp your RP’s are. Also, even if you have great relievers, relying on fewer innings makes you far more vulnerable in ERA and WHIP.
I have never seen anyone win it all employing one of these. They are too risky. The idea behind each is basically to bank on a few stats, punt others, and hope for the best elsewhere.
Another huge factor in head to head managing, is when your league has a transaction limit. Ours for instance has a max 5 transactions per week. I like to save my last transaction for Sunday morning. If I need it that day, I use it. However I am actually hoping I do not need it that day, and here is why.
I like to use it for the following week as to have one extra on my next opponent. It is of course paramount that you secure the win in your current week, but having an extra move over your next opponent is a huge perk! Also I am willing to sacrifice a little in bankability for an extra game.
So if I am going to nab pitching, I look early in the week for the best options, but also look closely at the two start options. If I can grab Tim Hudson for one start or Jason Hammel for two, it is a no brainer. Even if Huddy is at home against the Padres and Hammel is on the road for both. They are close enough that it is a good sacrifice. Same, if I need to fill in for say the injured Carlos Gomez, then I look to see if my options have games all seven days, or even better if they have a double header in there too.
I have always built a team with a bit more balanced attack knowing that when it comes down to managing I can figure out where my opponent is weaker and I can focus my moves to exploit that.
I also don’t want to say that those more extreme strategies cannot work for you. You just had to have the intent to use those strategies when you set your roster. Also, if you have a couple late season injuries to key players, it is probably not gonna work out well for you. You also could get really lucky and have a couple guys catch fire in a bottle and carry you further than you should have gone.
While managing is a huge part of your success, never forget to acknowledge that we are still playing a game in which we will never 100% control over. Otherwise you may overthink decisions and manage yourself right out of a win, I’ve seen it happen.