The case against starting Blake Bortles
Judging by the first two weeks of the NFL season, the Jacksonville Jaguars once again look like they’re going to be very bad at football. They’ve been outscored 75-27 by the Redskins and Eagles, and rank 32nd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Jacksonville’s putrid play has only turned up the volume on calls for third overall pick Blake Bortles to start at quarterback over the embattled incumbent Chad Henne.
Henne, who actually looked serviceable as a stop-gap quarterback last season, has struggled mightily. While he’s never going to compensate for a subpar unit around him, Henne hasn’t exactly gotten a lot of help on offense. Jacksonville’s offensive line has looked like the worst unit in the league, surrendering 13 sacks so far, including 10 in week 2. They haven’t been much better in the running game either, as they rank dead last in Football Outsiders’ adj. line yards metric. The Jaguars ran for just 2 yards per carry in both weeks one and two.
Some of Jacksonville’s pass blocking issues stem from Henne holding onto the ball too long.
Even if Henne was responsible for six of Washington’s 10 sacks, a four sack performance isn’t encouraging. Tuesday, Jacksonville released Cameron Bradfield, the starter right tackle over the first two games. The line is a mess right now.
And so is the defense, which was supposed to be much improved after a free agent spending spree. It’s been just two weeks, but early returns on investment have not been good. Sunday, Jacksonville allowed Kirk Cousins to come in for an injured Robert Griffin III and complete 22/33 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Inserting Bortles, known for his big arm, into the lineup will dissuade defenses from stacking the box more than Henne does. Maybe he jump starts the offense, but that’s unlikely to be unless the offensive line starts to play better. The defense is a whole other issue altogether. The Jaguars aren’t situated to develop a rookie quarterback; not right now at least. This is especially true given Bortles’ pre-draft reputation as a talent who wasn’t pro-ready right away.
Derek Carr had a similar M.O. and has fared about as well as can be expected on his own bad team, the 0-2 Oakland Raiders. However, his situation differs greatly from Bortles’. For starters, because of differences in their draft positions, the Raiders have Carr only for four years under team control. The Jaguars have Bortles under contract for five. It makes a lot more sense for Oakland to throw Carr into the fire right away to see what they have. It’s also easier for them to turn around and draft another quarterback next season, due to Carr being on a more cap friendly contract.
The Raiders also have a better offensive line. While Jacksonville has been a disaster in pass protection, the Raiders have fared much better in the first two weeks of the season against stiff competition in New York versus the Jets and at home versus JJ Watt and the Texans. The Raiders have been the 6th best offensive line in the league when it comes to adjusted sack rate. They haven’t fared much better in the ground game, but overall it’s a better unit.
I’ve also advocated for Teddy Bridgewater to start in Minnesota. But again, a totally different situation than the one Bortles is in. Minnesota has, for the time being, the best running back in football, a dynamic playmaker on the outside in Cordarrelle Patterson, and a solid pass catching tight end in Kyle Rudolph. And possibly most importantly, they have Norv Turner, who’s worked wonders with quarterbacks in the past, coordinating the offense. Bridgewater handled pressure better than any of the major quarterbacks in this draft class, which naturally makes him better suited to play right away.
No two quarterbacks are alike, and so maybe it’s unfair to say that Bortles would struggle right away playing behind a bad offensive line, and with a bad defense on the other side of the ball. Andrew Luck has done very well for himself with an average at best supporting cast in Indianapolis. But history suggests that throwing a young quarterback into a bad situation typically ends poorly. Coming off the disaster that was Blaine Gabbert, the Jaguars shouldn’t feel rushed to get Bortles into the game, and so far it doesn’t seem like they are.
This isn’t to say Bortles shouldn’t play at all this season, but now is not the right time. The defense and offensive line may not improve by much, but it’s too early to say definitively that they’re this bad. It’s safe to write off Jacksonville as being good this season, but incremental progress in these areas is very possible, and I would say likely. They can’t be much worse than they’ve been these first two weeks. If and when they do solidify, starting Bortles becomes a lot more feasible.
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