2015 NBA Draft: Who to watch for in the Big 12

This week, we’ll be previewing each power conference at Upside & Motor, hopefully giving you an idea of who to watch for in regards to the 2015 NBA Draft on each team when the NCAA season kicks off. We continue with the Big 12.

For the past 10 years, the Kansas Jayhawks have ruled the Big 12, winning at least a share of the regular season conference championship every year. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, this season should be no different.

Kansas features three players in the top 15 of the Upside & Motor Big Board, including two in the top eight. The other nine teams in the conference combined only have one other player on the board, which speaks to the fact that the Big 12 is a bit weaker overall this season than it has been in the past.

While some players will step up and into the spotlight, this looks to be a down year for the conference outside of Kansas, who should, again, win the conference handily.

Without further ado, here is who to watch for in the Big 12.

Baylor

The Bears have been rather interesting over the last few years, always featuring at least one potential first-rounder. From Ekpe Udoh to Perry Jones III to Isaiah Austin, the Bears have had their fair share of excellent collegiate big man prospects. Unfortunately, that’s not at all the case this season. Point guard Kenny Chery returns and will take the mantle from Brady Heslip as the resident Canadian on the Bears. While he’s adept at creating offense for himself and others, he’ll also be 23 on draft day and still has a ways to go before he’d be in the draft conversation. Ultimately, this will be a down year for the Bears.

Iowa State

One of the most fun teams in the NCAA last season, the Cyclones return one-third of what was the best triumvirate in all of college basketball last season. However, it might look more like they’re only returning about one-sixth. Georges Niang worked hard this offseason to get himself into the best shape of his life, losing about 30 pounds and looking the part of an NBA small forward. It remains to be seen as to whether or not that will unlock some of the requisite athleticism he needs to play the 3 in the NBA, but the basketball instincts and skills are certainly there for him to play in the league. I have right on the edge of the second round on my board right now, which means that with a good season he could definitely work his way into the first round discussion.

Iowa State also brings in a couple of transfers in Abdul Nader and Bryce Dejean-Jones to replace the production of Melvin Ejim from last season. They’re both 6’6″ do-it-all forwards who can both rebound and pass in addition to scoring. However, neither can really shoot the ball. Given the way that Iowa State played last year, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see these guys come out firing from distance with aplomb. Nader has an extra season to get the shooting figured out as a rising junior, but ultimately my guess is that neither of these players amount to much in NBA circles.

In fact, the second best prospect on this team is probably rising sophomore Monte Morris, a slightly undersized point guard that already displays poise beyond his years. Morris should take a big step forward into the role that DeAndre Kane occupied last year, breaking down the defense and getting into the paint at will. However, whereas Kane was something of a weak shooter from distance, Morris shot 40 percent from beyond the arc last year. I’m a pretty big fan of his game, but he’ll probably be more of a 2016 draft candidate than a 2015 one.

Finally, Dustin Hogue is interesting, but suffers from the same problems that Melvin Ejim did as an undersized power forward that can stretch the floor. Naz Long also doesn’t do enough outside of stretching the floor to warrant draft consideration.

Kansas

Those three players in the top 15 of Upside & Motor’s Big Board, Cliff Alexander, Kelly Oubre, and Wayne Selden, all are different players in different places of their development. Alexander is a big physical, rebounding beast that is going to get his points and rebounds regardless of who goes up against him on the college level. I’d give it about four games until he throws down a poster dunk on a hapless center who can do nothing but watch.

The two wing players are also pretty interesting in their own rights. Selden is more of a powerful slasher that can spot up from three right now. Woefully miscast in a role that expressly limited him to stretching the floor last season, look for him to attack the paint more, and get easier points by drawing fouls. Oubre on the other hand will be a great running mate for point guard Frank Mason, who will look to push the pace when he gets the chance. Oubre is the guy that has all of the skill in the world, but just hasn’t quite put it together yet into the full package. He’s going to impact every game he plays in one way or another though, because you know he’s going to take his shots. It’ll be interesting to see how he adapts to the collegiate level, where he won’t be so clearly the most superior athlete on the floor anymore.

Beyond those three, the next most interesting player is someone who could redshirt next season in Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk. Rafael Uehara broke him down a few weeks ago, so I’ll just direct you there if you’re curious. Mykhailiuk made the Ukrainian National Team as a 17-year-old for the FIBA World Cup.

Then, of course, there’s Perry Ellis, a 6’8 power forward who scores well on the collegiate level, but whose game doesn’t particularly translate well to the NBA. While every team is looking for a 4 that can step into the midrange and knock down the 16 footer like Ellis can, he doesn’t do much else beyond scoring that warrants a draft spot. He’s an average rebounder, and a limited defender that doesn’t protect the rim. Basically, you’re looking at an undersized post player that can step into the 16-foot range and knock down jumpers. I’m not sure there’s a ton of use for that guy in the NBA. He’d need to become an elite rebounder for me to believe more in his ability to carve out a role in the NBA.

Jamari Traylor and the aforementioned Mason round out the Kansas rotation, but neither should figure into becoming an NBA prospect this season. Mason’s a bit too undersized as a combo guard, and Traylor hasn’t proven himself to have the skills to reach the NBA yet.

Kansas State

Marcus Foster is the intriguing prospect here, a 6’3 sophomore combo guard that is explosive enough to blow by most defenders in order to get into the paint and break down the defense. The question is whether or not he has the point guard skills to actually be a “combo” guard, or if he’s just a pure undersized 2. This season, look to see whether or not he can start not only making more plays for himself as he continues to mature, but also plays for others as he diversifies his game. He’s still young at 19 years old, so it’s very possible he’ll be able to improve the rest of his game enough to become well-rounded enough to make the NBA. He’s sitting around the 80th spot on my board for sheer offense creation purposes.

Oklahoma

The Sooners surprised last season, and at the center of that engine was 6’5″ shooting guard Buddy Hield. Chucking up threes with reckless abandon in 2014, Hield made 39 percent of the seven threes per game that he shot on his way to 61 percent true-shooting rate. In order to the take the next step this season, it’s paramount that he improves his ball-handling skill so that he becomes more of a half-court weapon. But given the shooting ability and his defensive potential, there’s a good chance that he’ll get drafted at some point. I have him right on the edge of my top 60, and he could certainly rise with a improvement in those targeted areas.

The other interesting prospect on the Sooners is incoming transfer TaShawn Thomas, but it’s unknown if he’ll be able to play immediately after coming over from Houston. Thomas is appealing the NCAA to play right away, but a decision has not yet been made. If he’s able to play this year, Thomas is strong, 6’8 power forward that is a fluid athlete who finishes well in transition and out of the pick-and-roll. He’s mostly a paint player at this stage though, so he needs to improve himself from the midrange in order to have an NBA shot. It’s worth keeping an eye on this situation to see what happens.

Oklahoma State

No longer having the luxury of draftees Marcus Smart and Markel Brown, coach Travis Ford could be on the hot seat this season if his team doesn’t play well. And that will probably revolve around whether Le’Bryan Nash can figure it out.

Nash was one of the top players in his recruiting class, a 6’7″ small forward that could attack the rim against anyone. And that’s what he’s done in the Big 12 when he’s been successful. His percentage of shots taken at the rim has risen from every season that he’s been in Stillwater, from 33 percent as a freshman to nearly 60 percent as a junior. That coincided with his junior year being his most efficient collegiate season, wherein he was the owner of a 58 percent true shooting rate on nearly 24 percent usage. That’s really good. The problem is that his his jump shooting has similarly declined as his efficiency has increased. And while that’s good for the team, it’s ultimately harmful for his draft stock. He needs to develop at the very least an effective 18 foot jumper to play the 3 in the NBA, and he hasn’t yet done that. If he does that, he’s probably somewhere in the 30s on my board. If he doesn’t, he’ll stay right where is now: on the outside looking in.

Beyond Nash, there isn’t a lot here. The Cowboys were hurt by the transfers of Kamari Murphy and Brian Williams. Michael Cobbins returns, but he’s basically an undersized center that won’t make it to the NBA. Incoming freshman Joe Burton might be the most interesting guy on this team outside of Nash, as a 6’6″ small forward who can already shoot and run the floor. But he’s at least one or two years away from the draft.

TCU

Surprisingly, TCU does actually have someone that is on the NBA radar. Point guard Kyan Anderson shot 41 percent and got to the line seven times per-40 on his way to a 61 percent true-shooting rate to go with his 34 percent assist rate. The biggest problem is that he’s an undersized point guard that struggled with the length that Big-12 teams could throw at him in the paint. Plus, he couldn’t reliably defend anyone last year. But he’s still a ball-handler that can get into the rim at will, has a good midrange pull-up game (41 percent on midrange jumpers, only 12 percent of which were assisted), and is an excellent three-point shooter. He’s not on my top 100 list, but he’s just on the outskirts of it and could make it on there if he has a big season. Look for him to likely shine at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament in the postseason.

Texas

The other player on the U&M Big Board is Myles Turner, the 7-foot shot blocker that was considered universally by scouting services as a top-five recruit in the country. Turner is probably ready to protect the rim in the NBA from day-one, but he’s not going to be able to do much else yet. His biggest issue is that as a defensive center he doesn’t move well outside of the paint. But he displays a high basketball IQ, shoots well from the perimeter, and attacks the boards. These are all good things that will help him transition to the NBA, and it’s why he’s in our top 10.

However, his playing time could be limited this season because Texas has another near-7-footer that doesn’t leave the paint on defense in Cameron Ridley. Ridley is more of a traditional, wide-bodied post center that carves out space for himself offensively. He has good hands, solid touch from out to about seven feet, and good instincts on the offensive boards. And because of that wide body and great strength, Ridley is an excellent post defender who can push most offensive guys off of their spot and block shots with ease. But the same things that make him excellent in the post harm him on the perimeter, as he struggles to move well against the pick-and-roll. NBA teams would take advantage of that with the increased space that the larger offensive zone provides. He’s another guy that is just on the outside looking in for me as a prospect, but he’s in my top 70, which means that he’s certainly got a good chance to be drafted should he declare.

Texas also features Prince Ibeh, a 6’11” center with a 7’4″ wingspan. He played 13 minutes per game last season and blocked nearly two shots per contest, which shows just how much potential he has playing in the paint. But because of the both Ridley and Turner, the odds are pretty high that Ibeh will be forced to settle for scraps of playing time again. He’ll need to hope that both Turner and Ridley leave after this season so that he can get more time as a senior to show off his tremendous shot blocking skill.

That’s not even where the Texas front court ends, as Jonathan Holmes could have a shot to be drafted this season. The 6’9″ rising senior power forward has shown increased proficiency from the NCAA three-point line and in the post, where he can be counted on to create his own offense. He’s also improved as a rebounder and can defend in space. This is the kind of player could have a breakout senior season if the Texas guards can put him in the right positions to succeed. I have him in the 80s on my board right now, and he could rise throughout the process with a big senior season where he finally puts all of the pieces of his game together.

The guard that will be counted on to get all of these big men involved is Isaiah Taylor, a rising sophomore who gets everyone involved on offense but still scores inefficiently when creating for himself. The biggest problem is that he’s not a good shooter, only making 26 percent of his three-point attempts, but he gets to the line a ton and passes the ball well on kick-outs in the lane. If he can improve from the perimeter over the course of the next couple years, he is absolutely someone to keep an eye on. However, I don’t think that he’ll be quite there yet for the 2015 version of the draft. He’s still pretty skinny, and NBA teams would simply be able to play off of his lack of jump shot.

Texas Tech

The Red Raiders were ravaged by transfers and departures, losing four of their top five scorers from a season ago. Robert Turner is their best returning player, a 6’3 point guard who doesn’t particularly pass well and doesn’t shoot well from the perimeter. Tubby Smith could be in for a tougher second go-around than his first one was, as he continues to attempt to attract talent to Lubbock. For now though, this is the team most bereft of NBA talent in the conference.

West Virginia

The Mountaineers have potential to make an NCAA tournament run this season on the back of point guard Juwan Staten, their 6’1″ dynamic point guard that can break down anybody in the conference off the dribble in order to get into the lane and attack. He took nearly half of his shots at the rim last season, where he finished at a solid 60 percent. That ability to break down the defense in the paint also helps his teammates, and Staten’s 32 percent assist rate belies the ability he has to make plays for others. The question I have about him is whether or not he can develop the semblance of a shot from the perimeter. He only took 15 three-pointers last season, and he’ll need to at least have the threat of an outside shot to play in the NBA, even if it’s not one of the strengths of his game. I have Staten in the low-50s on my board right now.

Staten is the only real perimeter prospect left on West Virginia because the other two of the Mountaineers’ top three leading scorers, Eron Harris and Terry Henderson, have both transferred. Forward Devin Williams, however, will certainly be a name to remember. Rocking the recreation goggles better than anyone else in the NCAA, Williams is a tough, physical rebounder with an NBA-ready body. His wingspan is a bit small at just a shade under 7-feet, but he plays with physicality and absorbs contact to draw fouls. Whether he can make that next step into being drafted will depend on if he can improve his lateral agility, which is problematic right now.