Mar 5, 2014; Madison, WI, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Frank Kaminsky (44) moves the ball as Purdue Boilermakers center A.J. Hammons (20) defends at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin defeated Purdue 76-70. Mandatory Credit: Mary Langenfeld-USA TODAY Sports
This week, we’ll be previewing each power conference at Upside & Motor, hopefully giving you an idea of who to watch for in regards to the 2015 NBA Draft on each team when the NCAA season kicks off. We continue with the Big Ten.
Ahhh #B1G basketball. Is there anything sweeter than watching Bo Ryan and the Wisconsin Badgers eat down 30 seconds of the shot clock every possession? Could anything be more beautiful than watching Northwestern attempt to muck it up with teams so that every final score turns out to be 50-47? Who doesn’t enjoy the fact that only three of the 12 teams in the Big Ten were above average in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo rating?
Okay, so undoubtedly the Big Ten is not the best when it comes to the aesthetic quality of basketball being played. And this season, the level of play might even be a little bit down in conjunction with the style. Only four players appear in the Upside & Motor Top 30, undoubtedly the product of a weak recruiting year that only saw three McDonald’s All-Americans enter the conference fold.
So let’s get to it, here’s who to know in the Big Ten this year.
Illinois
While the Illini will be looking to return to the tournament after missing out last season, they don’t really have any notable NBA talent on their team right now. Rayvonte Rice (he goes by Ray, but that’s not the best name for him to go by right now) is their best player and scorer, but he’s a 6’4 shooting guard who looks like a power forward and can’t shoot.
There are also three rising sophomores who might be slightly better prospects than Rice in Kendrick Nunn, Malcolm Hill, and Jaylon Tate. Nunn is probably the most skilled of the three, but is a bit undersized for the two-guard position as a shooter. Hill is probably the most interesting from a physical standpoint as an athletic, long 6’6″ wing, but he needs to improve the consistency with both his ball-handling and shooting from distance. Finally, Tate is a point guard that will look to take over for Tracy Abrams as the senior will miss the season with a knee injury. He has the most opportunity out of these three for this year, but all three are likely at least one or two years away from the draft picture.
Having said all of that, Nnanna Egwu might be the best 2015 prospect on the Illini completely due to his size. At 6’11”, 250 pounds, Egwu has a prototypical body for the center position, but needs to improve as a rebounder and with his assertiveness. He should at least get an invite to Portsmouth after the season to see if he can impress enough to get a camp invite.
While no one should expect to be drafted from Illinois in 2015, their next recruiting class is shaping up to contain their next NBA player. Rated sixth in the country currently by 247 Sports, the Illini have brought in three four-star recruits, including top-40 point guard prospect Jalen Coleman.
Indiana
After an incredibly disappointing season in 2014, the Hoosiers will look to rebound in 2015, even though they lose Noah Vonleh to the draft. Their best prospect for the 2015 draft is Kevin “Yogi” Ferrell, a six-foot point guard that has excellent distribution skills, above-average ball-handling ability, and a strong first step to blow by opponents. He’s a creator of offense both for himself as he proved last season, and for others as he proved when he juggled getting the ball to Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller, and Christian Watford during his freshman season. Plus, last season he vastly improved as a shooter, making 40 percent of his six three-point attempts per game. He’s still smallish and might never defend well, but he should continue to improve on that end due to his quickness so that he can eventually be passable. I have him in the late 30s of my draft board right now, and he could easily become a first round pick in this draft bereft of point guards.
Looking past Ferrell, James Blackmon Jr. is a McDonald’s All-American that should have a major impact on the Hoosiers. He’s probably more of a 2016 prospect than a 2015 one because as a combo guard there might be an adjustment period. But he’s a very good shooter and has an excellent basketball IQ that allows him to make good decisions. There are questions about who he can defend on the next level, but I’d expect Blackmon to eventually reach the NBA.
Finally, there’s sophomore Troy Williams, a smooth 6’6″ athlete that has potential as a 3 and D player in the NBA. Despite only shooting 20 percent in his first collegiate season on limited attempts, Williams was a good shooter in high school with solid range. Right now on offense, he’s mostly a running mate in transition for Ferrell because of his ball-handling. Improving his handle is essential because with Will Sheehey gone, he’ll be counted on to create more offense from the wing. This will be a telling season as to whether or not he can reach the NBA. He’ll get much more opportunity than he had last season, and it’ll give us more information on his readiness to take the next step.
Iowa
Losing Devyn Marble will be a big deal for the Hawkeyes, but they still possess one of the deeper rosters in the conference. The best of those returnees is Aaron White, a 6’9″, 220 pound forward. He was the most underrated player in the conference last season, and received a vote from me for first team all-Big Ten on the SBNation vote. He’s a very complete player on the college level, playing well in the post and midrange as well as excelling as a rebounder and passer. Plus, he does all of these things efficiently. Having said that, I don’t think he’s NBA caliber athletically or physically. White’s one of my favorite returning players in the NCAA and he should get an invite to Portsmouth, but I’m not sure he’ll go much further than that.
The Hawkeyes also have two near 7-footers in Adam Woodbury and Gabriel Olaseni who will get looks based on their height alone. Olaseni is also an incredible athlete that can run and jump with any other big man, but he doesn’t have great basketball skill. Woodbury, on the other hand, has a strong pedigree at 7’1″ with decent athleticism. However, he has short arms, still struggles with conditioning, and hasn’t been as productive as advertised coming out of high school. He’d need to do a great deal of improvement to reach the NBA.
Finally, for the future I’m interested in 6’6″ shooting guard Peter Jok. The rising sophomore was considered one of the best players in his age for his first couple years of high school before suffering an injury and general ineffectiveness. However, the guy can still shoot the lights out of the gym, so there’s a chance that with some luck he could reach in the NBA in 2016-17.
Maryland
No team was more ravaged by transfers than the Maryland Terrapins this offseason. Losing Seth Allen, Nick Faust, Shaq Cleare, and Roddy Peters is a major step backwards for a program that could have stepped immediately into the Big Ten and competed. As such, they look to be more of a middle-of-the-pack squad led by guard Dez Wells, who somehow still has NCAA eligibility.
At 6’4″ with a near 6’9″ wingspan, Wells has excellent size for the shooting guard position in the NBA. He can slash into the lane from the wing at will, and takes nearly half of his shots at the rim. He also has pretty good defensive ability on the ball when he wants to play. The problem is that his focus wavers in and out, and he really can’t shoot the ball from the perimeter. NBA teams are going to be able to sag off of him in order to stop his penetration, which will make him a pretty useless player in the league. Learning a jump shot is essential to his draft hopes. He’s inside my top-100 due to his athleticism and body, but barely.
To deal with the outgoing transfers, Maryland brings in an excellent recruiting class that is led by McDonald’s All-American Romelo Trimble. Trimble is more of a combo guard at this stage that will take a couple of years to make the full transition to point guard. However, once he does, he has the athleticism, instincts in the pick-and-roll, and shooting ability to be a great college player and potential first round pick. He’s my favorite freshman entering the Big Ten this season.
Also, keep an eye on Dion Wiley in the future, a good shooting guard that may or may not play a lot as a freshman this season.
Michigan
The Wolverines always seem to have that one player that steps up and becomes a first round pick as the season progresses. This year, look for that to be Caris LeVert. I’ve written an awful lot about him and how he is the clear winner of #MUSCLEWATCH2014, so I think we can dispense with that and move on. I have him at 19th overall on the Upside & Motor Big Board, and think there is a chance he could move up into the lottery.
While LeVert will handle most of the ball-handling duties vacated by Nik Stauskas, I look for one of my biggest potential breakout candidates of the 2015 NCAA season to step up and replace some of the shooting that the Kings’ lottery pick takes with him. Very few players were able to guard Zak Irvin in high school, and I think that will carry over to the college level this season. He’s already an elite shooter, knocking down 43 percent of his four three-pointers per game, but that’s not all he does. Possessing the ball-handling ability to attack wild closeouts and the off-ball movement coming off of screens to catch and shoot with ease, Irvin’s game is tailor-made for the pros. He needs to put on a bit of weight and improve defensively, but the pieces are there for him to be Michigan’s next breakout star.
Finally, there is Derrick Walton. Walton is a point guard in the Mario Chalmers mold that isn’t particularly asked to do a lot because of the ball-handling skill of his wings. He’s a good spot-up shooter and plays a hard-nosed brand of basketball that is always high-effort. It’ll be interesting to see what he does this year with higher usage. I don’t have him in my top 100 right now, but I guess there’s a chance he could get there with some improvement.
Michigan State
After losing Adreian Payne, Gary Harris, and Keith Appling to the NBA, Tom Izzo might have less talent than he’s ever had on a Michigan State team. However, he does have one potential NBA player in his midst.
Branden Dawson is a rebounding and defensive dynamo that could make the NBA on those skills alone. He’s absolutely an elite athlete from the wing, both from a quickness and from a leaping standpoint. Dawson can guard both wing positions, and legitimately has potential as an all-NBA defender with his combination of size, strength, length, and athleticism. However, his offensive game is so problematic that he might never get the chance. On that side of the ball, he’s a power forward in a wing’s body, a player that makes his living off of offensive rebounds and put-backs. Developing the semblance of an outside shot is critical to his NBA chances. If he can do that, there’s a good chance he’ll rise on my board from mid-second rounder to potential first rounder.
Outside of Dawson, there really isn’t a lot here. Eron Harris has transferred in from West Virginia, but he’ll sit out this season. The incoming freshman class has no true standouts. Maybe Denzel Valentine steps up as a potential defensive wing stopper, but the odds are low. This could be a fairly weak Spartan team for the first time in a long time.
Minnesota
Coach Richard Pitino has built a solid core and respectable system in his first season, but he wasn’t left with a ton of talent. Andre Hollins can create offense, but he does so pretty inefficiently for a lead guy. DeAndre Mathieu is an excellent defensive pest and slasher, but is very undersized for the NBA. The recruiting class wasn’t fantastic, either.
Simply put, while Hollins will likely earn himself an invite to Portsmouth, it would be a major surprise if anyone on this roster developed into an NBA caliber talent.
Nebraska
Nebraska, however, does have two interesting, long wing prospects that are unique and different from each other.
Terran Petteway was among the Big Ten’s leaders in scoring last year. Even though he shot the ball inefficiently from beyond the three-point arc, Petteway looks to have a good stroke from there and could develop into a plus shooter. However, it’s the rest of what he does at nearly 6’7″ that’s enticing. Attacking constantly, Petteway got to the line 6.4 times per contest, where he shot 82 percent. He also crashes the boards, can be counted on to play solid man-to-man defense, and looks for the open man when the pass is there. His handle is solid, and he’s a pretty complete scorer. He’s a top 90 prospect for me that could eventually move into the second round.
Shavon Shields is the other guy here that I like, and it’s mostly because of the do-it-all nature of his game. He’s the glue that holds Nebraska together, taking the toughest wing assignment on defense, providing secondary scoring behind Petteway, and generally playing smart basketball within the team concept. He isn’t in my top 100 prospects right now, but could easily get there by the time his time in Nebraska is up if he can continue to take strides with his shooting and half-court creation skills.
Northwestern
Under new head coach Chris Collins, Northwestern was able to upset a few NCAA tournament teams such as Wisconsin and Iowa a season ago. That’s an incredible testament to Collins’ skill, given the dearth of talent that occupies this roster. The only player that will even be slightly confused as an NBA prospect is JerShon Cobb, a 6’5″ shooting guard that developed into a solid leading option for the Wildcats last year. The problem is that he’s still pretty inefficient, and would need a lot of athletic work to eventually be able to reach the NBA. He’ll probably put up a few big games against tough opponents, but that won’t be enough to get him a spot in the NBA draft.
Ohio State
Surprisingly, the Buckeyes did not cancel the season after losing senior guard Aaron Craft to graduation. Dan Dakich’s favorite player has moved on and will bring grit, hustle, toughness, and defense to the Warriors this training camp. LaQuinton Ross is also gone after leaving early and going undrafted.
However, that doesn’t mean the Buckeyes have been left without talent. In fact, Craft has been replaced by a point with better NBA potential in Shannon Scott. Scott, a senior, is pretty close to Craft’s equal as a defender, and should leave Ohio State as a three-time member of the Big Ten’s all-Defensive Team. But to bring what Craft doesn’t, he’s a better athlete and distributor of the basketball. The shooting continues to be a work in progress for Scott, but it’s markedly better than when he was a freshman. I have him in the 90s on my top 100 list. If he shows improvement shooting the ball, he could easily become a draftable player.
Another player in that same boat is senior center Amir Williams, an excellent defensive big man at 6’11” who can defend the rim well and hedge hard on the perimeter due to his length and average foot speed. Williams already has an NBA body at 250 pounds and a 7’2″ wingspan, but there are major questions about his offensive game. Simply put, his hands are terrifying. There’s about a 30 percent chance that throwing an entry pass or dump off to him will end in a turnover as the ball flutters out of his hands. That said, when he does catch the ball he’s an excellent finisher at the rim. Plus, he already moves really well in the pick-and-roll with Scott. He’s outside of my top 100 now, but could creep in with improvement on that end this season.
There is also another senior that has potential to be drafted in high-flying small forward Sam Thompson. One of the best athletes in the NCAA, Thompson utilizes his quickness and length well on the defensive end where he stays in front of opposing wings and forces turnovers through both blocks and steals. He’s also made strides as a shooter the past two seasons, shooting 37 percent from three-point range on 133 attempts. You can’t call on him to create at all, but he moves really well without the ball on cuts towards the rim. I’ll be interested to see him in an increased role this season, and it could lead to him making a name for himself as a “3 and D” type prospect.
Finally, the Buckeyes also feature some names to know for the future. Rising sophomore Marc Loving has the length, basketball IQ, and shooting ability to become an NBA 3, but needs to produce this season. Freshman D’Angelo Russell, a McDonald’s All-American this past year, is a smooth-shooting two-guard. He can take over the point guard role from time-to-time, but his off-ball game is what impresses me most. Look for him to be more of a 2016 guy than a 2015 one though. Finally, Keita Bates-Diop brings an intriguing package offensively as a potential NBA 3, but needs to iron out some of his offensive game, such as his handle.
Penn State
The Nittany Lions always seem to feature one or two guards that can make the NBA. Talor Battle had that ability in the past, and Tim Frazier is in training camp with the Boston Celtics. This year, guard D.J. Newbill takes over the reins completely from Frazier and has potential to be the leading scorer in the Big Ten. An excellent slasher and ball-handler, Newbill got to the rack with ease last season, drawing fouls and upping his true-shooting rate to 55 percent. The problem is that he still can’t really shoot from the perimeter, and slashing guards have to be super elite at getting to the rim in order to make that work in the NBA. He’s somewhat similar to Maryland’s Wells, but he has a bit worse of a body and seemingly less length. That’s the difference between a potential NBA career and being forced to ply your trade in the D-League. I have Newbill outside of my top-100, but with strong play he could get there eventually.
Purdue
There is only one player worth knowing on the Boilermakers this season, and it’s someone that I have in the Upside & Motor Top 30. A.J. Hammons is one of the most effective players in the NCAA on a per-minute basis. His two season PER is 22.3, with per-40 numbers of 17 points, 12 rebounds, and five blocks. Simply put, he’s an immovable force with long arms and excellent touch that can dominate stretches of the game when he plays.
The problem is that “when he plays” qualifier. Due to conditioning and some foul trouble, Hammons has only been able to play about 24 minutes per contest during his time in West Lafayette. If he can improve his body, lose weight, and commit to basketball, he could be a starting caliber NBA center. If he doesn’t, he might not reach the NBA. I think someone will take a risk on him, but it would be nice to see Hammons mitigate some of that risk this season by improving.
Rutgers
There are a couple of borderline prospects that Rutgers will feature this season. Kadeem Jack averaged 14.3 points and seven rebounds per contest last season as a power forward, but doesn’t do much away from the paint. His jump shot has slightly improved over the years, but it’s still not strong enough to be counted as a consistent weapon. What Jack brings is energy and athleticism. That’s not enough for me to put him in my top-100, but it’s possible that with perimeter improvement he could eventually get here.
Guard Myles Mack is also an interesting guy that is ultimately just a bit too small for the NBA. He’s a good distributor and excellent scorer that shoots well from three, but at 5’10” you really have to be elite at both of those things to make it. He could improve by leaps and bounds this season, but he’s probably more of a Portsmouth guy than real prospect.
Wisconsin
Finally, we get to the favorites to win the Big Ten. The Wisconsin Badgers feature two players in the top 18 of the Upside & Motor Big Board in Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker. We’ve written at length about both here and here. Then, we’ve written about them separately. Here are scouting reports of Kaminsky and of Dekker. There’s not much else for us to say about them, so we’ll focus on two other guys.
Forward Nigel Hayes is a bit undersized for the forward position, but he’s a load to handle inside at 6’7″, 240 pounds. He’s also flashed the makings of a jumper that will be essential to his potential success in the NBA. Hayes will likely be much more of a factor next season after Dekker and Kaminsky depart, but he’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on this season to see how he progresses.
Guard Traevon Jackson was a solid contributor in all categories last season from the lead guard position for the Badgers, but likely doesn’t have that one specialized skill needed to make the league. He could make the leap into all-conference status this season though, which could mean an invite to Portsmouth.