Statistical NFL power rankings for Week 4
By Keith Myers
Power Rankings are always fun, but they are too often skewed by expectations and team reputation. Statistical NFL power rankings, on the other hand, are entirely based on how team have performed on the field thus this season.
The mathematical model these rankings are based on comes from 12 years worth of correlational data of winning to over 30 different statistical measures. These include offensive and defensive yards per carry and yards per pass attempt, special teams return and coverage stats, turnovers, and third-down efficiency. There is also a strength of schedule adjustment.*
Interestingly, the league currently lacks any dominant teams (power greater than 80), and no team is even close to the threshold. There is also only one team that distinctly bad, and even the Jacksonville Jaguars aren’t as bad statistically as the worst teams in past years have been.
The Philadelphia Eagles are currently undefeated, but statistically they are just 19th in the league. Perhaps their low ranking shouldn’t be surprising though, as they’ve had to come from behind in each of their three games despite playing the league’s easiest schedule.
The Seattle Seahawks being number 1 is a bit surprising given their loss to San Diego and their difficulty on third downs this season. They are held up by having the best net adjusted yards per play of any team in the league by a wide margin. Having the league’s second-toughest toughest strength of schedule is helping offset their deficiencies as well.
Similarly, the Detroit Lions are statistically above average in almost all areas, but having the league’s best net third down efficiency is what is currently propelling them to number two in the rankings.
On the end of the spectrum is the Green Bay Packers, who have been shut down offensively thus far this season. Green Bay is a team with a ton of talent, but their poor performances against Seattle and Detroit means the Packers are currently sitting 28th.
An oddity in the ranking this week is the San Diego Chargers. They’ve played well against a tough schedule, including a victory over Seattle, but currently sit at 17th in the rankings. Much of this has to do with the fact that the Chargers do not yet have a kick return of record so their “average return” is statistically zero. Without this key stat for the special-teams index, the Chargers’ overall ranking is fairly meaningless.
Clearly there are some small sample size issues in these power rankings created by doing this so early in the season. For example, Washington has played much better since Kirk Cousins has taken over at quarterback, but he hasn’t had enough time to make up for the team’s lackluster start. If they continue to play well, they should move up in the rankings in the coming weeks.
Enough with the commentary; it is time for the rankings.
Statistical Power Rankings
| Rank | Team | NYds | ST | SoS | Power |
| 1 | Seattle | 3.1 | 14.5 | 3 | 66.48 |
| 2 | Detroit | 1.1 | 19.7 | 0.2 | 66.29 |
| 3 | Arizona | 1.4 | -4.9 | 1.8 | 64.82 |
| 4 | Atlanta | 1.1 | 15.2 | 0.2 | 64.81 |
| 5 | Cincinnati | 1.0 | 15.0 | -0.7 | 64.77 |
| 6 | New Orleans | 0.8 | 33.4 | 0.2 | 64.51 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh | 1.4 | 11.2 | 1.4 | 63.14 |
| 8 | Buffalo | 1.3 | 18.8 | -0.9 | 62.44 |
| 9 | Washington | 1.7 | 29.3 | -1.9 | 62.35 |
| 10 | Houston | -0.2 | 24.5 | -2 | 62.06 |
| 11 | Dallas | 0.3 | 19.6 | 0.1 | 61.98 |
| 12 | San Francisco | 0.7 | 20.5 | 1.9 | 61.94 |
| 13 | Baltimore | -0.6 | 15.8 | 0.2 | 61.31 |
| 14 | Indianapolis | -0.4 | 24.8 | -0.3 | 61.15 |
| 15 | Denver | -0.4 | 31.3 | 2.1 | 60.95 |
| 16 | New England | -0.3 | 13.6 | -2.5 | 60.60 |
| 17 | San Diego | -2.2 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 60.36 |
| 18 | NY Jets | 2.5 | 21.5 | -3.4 | 60.34 |
| 19 | Philadelphia | 1.1 | 20.9 | -3.9 | 60.10 |
| 20 | Kansas City | -1.4 | 22.7 | 0.7 | 60.00 |
| 21 | St. Louis | -1.5 | 26.0 | -3.9 | 59.95 |
| 22 | Carolina | -1.8 | 28.7 | -2.4 | 59.74 |
| 23 | Cleveland | -1.1 | 21.5 | 1 | 59.62 |
| 24 | Chicago | -2.4 | 16.3 | 0.2 | 59.54 |
| 25 | Miami | 0.5 | 30.7 | -0.7 | 59.53 |
| 26 | Tennessee | 1.0 | 21.7 | 1.8 | 59.20 |
| 27 | Minnesota | -0.6 | 27.6 | 2.3 | 57.67 |
| 28 | Green Bay | -0.4 | 15.8 | 2.5 | 57.45 |
| 29 | Tampa Bay | -1.0 | 12.8 | -1.5 | 56.51 |
| 30 | NY Giants | -1.5 | 18.0 | 0.7 | 56.06 |
| 31 | Oakland | -1.8 | 28.7 | 0.7 | 53.18 |
| 32 | Jacksonville | -2.0 | 24.9 | 1.3 | 47.85 |
NYds – Weighted net yards per play
ST – Special teams index, combination of kick and punt return averages as well and kick and punt coverage averages
SoS – Strength of schedule, provided by teamrankings.com
* This model should be considered a work in progress. Data from the 2013 season has not been included, and thus the shift to mobile quarterbacks around the NFL is not fully realized in these rankings. In the coming weeks, the formula will be tweaked slightly as this new data is included.
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