2015 NBA Draft: Who to watch for in the Pac-12

Jan 16, 2014; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (23) prepares to shoot the ball as he is defended by Arizona State Sun Devils forward Eric Jacobsen (21) during the second half at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports

This week, we’ll be previewing each power conference at Upside & Motor, hopefully giving you an idea of who to watch for in regards to the 2015 NBA Draft on each team when the NCAA season kicks off. We continue with the Pac-12.

To quote Kid Rock, we’re packing up our game and heading out west.

Okay, that was probably the worst lead ever to an article ever, but if you got this point I promise it’ll get better. We’re going to discuss the Pac-12 today, which features four players on the Upside & Motor Big Board.

The talent isn’t particularly deep in the conference this year, and it is dominated by what many believe to be the best team in the NCAA heading into the 2014-15 season. The Arizona Wildcats are an incredibly deep team that may struggle to get all of their potential NBA talent on the floor.

They’re the clear class of the conference, and everyone else will be looking up at them. Now, the question is whether or not any other players outside of the state of Arizona can step up and get into the first round. Right now, we have two players on the board who do not play for Arizona.

So without further ado, here is who to watch for in the Pac-12.

Arizona

This is probably going to be the longest section of any preview, because Arizona is absolutely loaded this season. With NBA prospects laden throughout their roster, I had to triple check to make sure I didn’t forget anyone.

It all starts with Stanley Johnson, the freshman with the most NBA-ready body to play in the NCAA in a while. At 6’8″, 240 pounds as a wing, Johnson had an excellent summer, winning the MVP award at the FIBA Americas U18 tournament. Skill wise, Johnson is the owner of a skillful yet explosive offensive game that allows him to pull up from just about any spot on the floor as well as get out in transition and finish with authority. His goal this season should be to develop a tighter handle in order to become a better half-court weapon. If he does that, he has an outside chance to go first overall in the draft. As such, I have him at fifth overall right now. Barring injury, I can’t see a scenario where he isn’t a lottery pick.

Next to him on the wing will be Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, a 6’5″ small forward that has boundless energy and strong defensive skill. Maximum effort will be expended on both sides of the ball by Hollis-Jefferson, and because of that he’s already an excellent defensive player that can both stay in front of his man and use his strength to push him off of his spot. It’s the other side of the ball that is the major question mark. Hollis-Jefferson can’t shoot outside of about eight feet, and barely attempted any shots outside of that range last season. He gets most of his job done on the offensive boards, where he’s a beast that had a 10.4 percent rebounding rate. Diversifying his offensive game beyond drives and put-backs will be extremely important to his NBA chances, so look for that at some point this season. He’s in the top 2o of the Big Board right now, and could rise or fall depending on development.

The third best prospect on the Wildcats is probably center Kaleb Tarczewski, a 7-foot tall post player that can step away from the hoop out to about 12 feet consistently. While his post moves aren’t particularly great, he has good footwork and a strong understanding of angles that allows him to get in deep on the block and either finish easy buckets or get fouled, where he converts at the line at a solid 76 percent clip. The questions revolving around him will mostly be defensively, as his wingspan is quite short at 6’11”. That defensive potential will be the difference between him carving out a role and not succeeding in the NBA. I have him in the 30s on my big board right now, and he is probably more likely to be a faller than a riser this season due to Arizona’s depth.

The fourth member of Arizona’s starting lineup who will get a draft look this year is Brandon Ashley, a 6’8″ combo forward that will likely continue to be a combo forward should he reach the NBA. He doesn’t particularly have the bulk to play the 4, but he does have the size with a 7’3″ wingspan. However, he also moves very well on the perimeter and could probably steal minutes defending bigger 3s. The key to his game will be continuing to develop his perimeter game offensively, as that’s the biggest thing holding him back at this point. Ashley doesn’t put the ball on the floor well, and he needs to improve his range out to the NCAA three-point line consistently. Given that he’s already a pretty solid midrange shooter, I don’t think that’s asking too much. After deciding at the last minute to pull his name out of the draft, Ashley will probably declare this season. I have him in the 50s right now, but think that where he goes is more important than when he goes.

The last few guys I’m just going to lump together. T.J. McConnell is an excellent caretaker point guard that has solid vision and can shoot from distance. But he’ll be 23 on draft day and has some definite athletic limitations. He’s not within my top 100 and probably will not be there by the end of the year. Gabe York is an undersized combo guard at 6’2″ that shoots well, but does little else right now. There are also freshmen Craig Victor and Parker Jackson-Cartwright who could feature into future drafts. Finally, there’s 7-foot center Dusan Ristic, a long-armed Serbian who arrives in the states this year. He’s something of an x-factor behind Tarczewski, and could turn into a first-rounder some day just due to his size. He’s probably more of a 2016 guy, but keep an eye on him.

Arizona State

Losing Jahii Carson and Jordan Bachynski to the professional ranks has sapped the Sun Devils of much of their fire power from last season. The most interesting player is probably Shaq McKissic, a senior guard that was more of a role player last season. He’ll be forced to step into the spotlight this year as potentially their leading scorer. At 6’5″, he has the size and athleticism to play in the NBA, the ball skills just aren’t there. He’s not someone I’ll be thinking a lot about this season though unless he comes out of the gates firing.

California

Just sitting on the outskirts of the Upside & Motor Big Board, wing Jabari Bird could have a breakout season for the Golden Bears. His jump shot is pretty smooth, and he’s a good slasher from the wing. Assuming his shot selection improves, his percentages should rise exponentially from last season. That shot selection is kind of a problem though, because he likes to take a lot of pull-up jumpers and a lot of contested shots. Instead of taking those shots, he needs to improve as a ball-handler and get all the way to the rim so that he can draw fouls for easy buckets. I have Bird in my low 30s right now, and he could go either way. I’d like to see a lot of production from him this year. If he does that, he’ll be a first rounder. If not, he could fall totally off.

Next to him on the wing will be 6’5″ Tyrone Wallace, and he’s more of a well-rounded player. Wallace has solid handle and at least a good looking shot, but he can’t finish at the rim despite his frame. Having said that, he’s a guy that does a lot beyond just scoring. He finds cutters well when passing, he defends well, and he always gives full effort. Wallace is not in my top 100, but there’s a chance he could get there by the end of the season with some development in his shooting and finishing.

Finally, 6’10” forward David Kravish averaged 11 points per game last season next to Richard Solomon, and could become a solid draft prospect without the now professional big man next to him. Rebounding and shot blocking are his two best skills that will translate to the NBA. Whether or not he can make anything of them will depend on him developing an outside shot. His midrange game was fine last year and he moves well with out the ball, but I don’t think he’s particularly athletic enough to play in the NBA at this stage. But with a three-point shot, that could be mitigated.

Colorado

Forward Josh Scott performed well in some of his biggest games last season. He had 15 and 11 against Baylor’s huge frontline, 20 and 12 against a good Oklahoma State team, 15 and 12 against Oregon, 19 and 9 against UCLA, 15 and 11 against Arizona, and then 18 and 8 against Arizona again. He seems to always play up to his competition, and that bodes well for his chances in the NBA. At 6’10” and 245 pounds, Scott is an absolute load to handle inside, but also possesses good agility and quickness in small spaces. Plus, he developed the ability to make the occasional midrange jumper, a skill that will undoubtedly need to be improved if he is to get drafted. Scott also knocked down 81 percent of his free throw attempts while getting there often with six attempts per contest. The biggest question around him right now is whether he can slide over to power forward or not because he’s not a great rim protector. But still, every back up big man in the NBA has flaws. Scott should be able to become a solid backup that can defend both power forwards and centers manageably, as well as rebound and get to the line. However, I don’t think he has much upside beyond that, so I have him in my late 30s at the moment.

Small forward Xavier Johnson is also a pretty solid potential second round prospect right now, after averaging 12 points and six rebounds per contest last season. Right now, he’s mostly a well-rounded player that can shoot well from distance, defend, rebound, and do the little things to help you win. That has a ton of value in the NBA, if he can iron out his catch-and-shoot skills. Getting up to around 40 percent from three-point range should be his goal. He already has the skills he needs to attack close outs, but without an elite skill, it will be tough for him to make a mark in the NBA. I have him in the 90s on my board right now.

Finally, guard Askia Booker will also be around next season, which will help out the Buffaloes with shot creation at least. The 6’2 guard isn’t much of a pro prospect because of his shooting, but he can get into the lane and attack the defense at least. He should receive an invite to Portsmouth, at the worst, but it would take a lot of improvement for him to reach a top 100 level.

Oregon

There might not be a team that had a worse offseason than the Oregon Ducks in 2014. After looking primed to return quite a bit of their team that advanced to the third round in the NCAA tournament, disaster struck in the form of dismissals and transfers. Damyean Dotson, Brandon Austin, and Dominic Artis were dismissed following a rape accusation. Ben Carter and A.J. Lapray are no longer affiliated with the program after transferring. Plus, the team already lost Mike Moser, Jason Calliste, Jonathan Loyd, Richard Amardi, and Waverly Austin to graduation. The deep team that Dana Altman had access to last season is no more.

However, he still has one player that could be drafted. Joseph Young was one of the best scorers in college basketball last season when taking both volume and efficiency into account. Averaging 24 points per-40 on a 63 percent true-shooting rate, Young is an elite shooter that made 42 percent of his three-point attempts and 88 percent of his foul shots. Simply put, the guy will score the basketball wherever he is. That should translate to the NBA, which is always starved for shooting and efficient scoring. However, the problem is that he can’t defend anyone. At about 6’2″, he suffers from being too small to guard other shooting guards. Plus, he shows no desire to be a competent defensive player, which will hinder him on the NBA level. He’s in the 80s on my board right now, but he might end up as more of a D-League/Euro star than an NBA role player.

It’s also worth mentioning the team brings in a big point guard that should play immediately in JaQuan Lyle. He’s more of a 2016-17 prospect, but keep an eye on him next to Young.

Oregon State

This is going to be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Beavers. Okay, so I guess you can’t really “rebuild” when there is nothing building to begin with. We’ll call it a transitional year. With new coach Wayne Tinkle in the fold and a big recruiting class prepared for 2015, Oregon State will simply just be treading water this year. The Beavers definitely have a bright future, but there is no one to really get excited about for the 2015 draft.

Stanford

After a surprising run to the Sweet 16 last season that resulted in two players getting drafted, the Cardinal will most likely drop off a bit from last season’s heights. However, they do return one legitimate draft prospect and bring in another.

Chasson Randle is a long 6’2″ inch scorer with a 6’6″ wingspan that should help make up for some of his height deficiencies. He’ll need every bit of that height because he’s more of a shooting guard than a point guard. That might not matter though, because Randle shoots the ball extremely well. At 40 percent on 539 three-point attempts through his NCAA career, Randle is pretty close to being an elite outside shooter. Plus, he’s excellent at driving and finishing for a player his size, as he took 35 percent of his shots at the rim and finished at a 59 percent clip. Plus, he draws fouls and knocks down his free throws. The questions about him will always revolve around his defensive ability, as he doesn’t particularly force turnovers and he isn’t big enough to guard other 2s. However, I think he can be a good defensive player against point guards. If a team can take him and place him with a big point guard (Philadelphia, for instance), Randle can have NBA value. I have him just outside of my top 100, and think there is a real chance he rises into it as the season progresses.

To replace some of the skill they lost at forward in Josh Huestis and Dwight Powell, the Cardinal did bring in Reid Travis, a 6’8″ freshman with a long wingspan and an NBA-ready frame at 240 pounds. He’s your traditional power forward that succeeds by crashing the glass and scoring with his back to the basket. Given that he doesn’t have a jump shot quite yet, I don’t think he’s ready for the NBA. However, come 2016 or 2017, this could be a first-round level prospect.

Beyond those two, Stefan Nastic is a near 7-footer that finishes efficiently and has an NBA frame. But he doesn’t block shots or move particularly well on the perimeter, meaning he probably profiles better over in Europe where the offensive zone is smaller.

UCLA

The Bruins lost a lot of talent when Kyle Anderson, Jordan Adams, and Zach LaVine departed for the NBA draft early. Plus, the Wear twins graduated, opening up two other scholarships. To compensate, the Bruins reloaded with a recruiting class ranked in the top 10 nationally. 

That class is led by power forward Kevon Looney, a player that some have already ranked in the lottery for the 2015 NBA Draft. I’m a bit less excited about his prospects for the 2015 draft, though. At 6’8″, 200 pounds, Looney is still pretty skinny for the position he’ll eventually have to move to in the NBA. His lateral agility isn’t strong enough for the small forward position.

I’d compare him to something of a Thaddeus Young. He’s tremendously skilled offensively with range out to the NCAA three point line and straight line driving ability from the midrange. Plus, he’s a tough offensive rebounder that will get easy put back buckets. I think Looney is absolutely going to be a first-round pick some day, but I’m just not sure it’s going to be this year because of his body and position.

They also bring in another McDonald’s All-American in center Thomas Welsh, although he is definitely not going to be draft-ready by 2015. He has a soft touch, but still needs to improve his range a bit, plus needs to get his body into better shape so he can become a better athlete. The Bruins also brought in another top-100 recruit in Jonah Bolden, but he will be academically ineligible this season. Bolden is an Australian power forward who will should be eligible next year.

Along with the new recruits, I’m excited about another former McDonald’s All-American that the Bruins bring into the fold. Isaac Hamilton, brother of Jordan Hamilton in the NBA, will finally suit up collegiately. Hamilton committed to UTEP initially out of high school and signed a letter of intent, then broke it in order to go to UCLA. However, the NCAA forced him to sit out a year before playing. At 6’5″, Hamilton has good size to play shooting guard in the NBA. Like his brother, he’s not a particularly great athlete but he knows how to get his shot in any way he needs to. That trait is always valued in the NBA, and I would think there is a good chance he’ll eventually get an opportunity to show it there. I want to see how he looks after taking a year off before rating him in my top 100, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him shoot in once he takes the floor.

Oh, and did I mention that UCLA already has a player that is rated in the Upside & Motor Top 30? Norman Powell is an elite defensive guard capable of defending both positions, and attacks the rim in transition. He’s undoubtedly one of the elite athletes in the NCAA for this coming season, and he’ll be fun to watch. He needs to improve as a shooter in order to really solidify his stock, but I like Powell and think there’s a solid chance he sticks in the league for a while.

Finally, forward Tony Parker should enter the starting lineup and show off his rebounding and skills close to the basket. He was the beneficiary of dump-offs last season coming from Anderson, but he won’t have that luxury this year with the 6’9″ point guard gone. Because of that, he’ll need to improve his back-to-the-basket game and try to develop the skill to get shots for himself. As a big-bodied 6’9″ forward with long arms, he should be able to use his strength to seal off guys on the block and then receive passes into his soft hands. I think he needs to probably get into slightly better shape though, and because of that he might be more of a 2016 prospect than a 2015 one.

USC

The renaissance under Andy Enfield is just beginning, which means that the talent isn’t quite there yet for the second-year coach. Katin Reinhardt is a 6’5″ guard who can slash, ball-handle and shoot. He’s a new transfer to the Trojan program so it’ll be interesting to see how he acclimates and he could be a draftable guy down the road. Also, Jordan McLaughlin is an interesting freshman point guard that may make waves later.

Utah

Featuring one player in Upside & Motor Top 30 and one borderline prospect, Utah should return to the NCAA tournament this season. I’ve written a full feature on Delon Wright, so I’m just going to direct you there. I’m a big fan of his, and have him in my top 25.

As a running mate, Wright will have Jordan Loveridge next to him. He averaged 14 points per-game last season as an undersized power forward that can shoot the three. I say he’s an undersized power forward because he doesn’t have the body or quickness to play the 3. I don’t think he’s got much of a chance to make the NBA, but he’s a scorer and decent rebounder on the college level.

Washington

The Huskies had a first-round pick in the 2014 draft in C.J. Wilcox, and could potentially have another one in 2015 with Nigel Williams-Goss. Williams-Goss is a 6’2″ point guard that distributes well, plays solid on both ends, and plays within himself at all times. He needs to improve a bit on his efficiency as a scorer, but he already has the framework that he needs for that to happen. Shooting 36 percent from three and 59 percent at the rim, Williams-Goss is already solid but could and should improve his efficiency. The biggest problem for him is that he’s not necessarily the quickest guy in the world, so he’s mostly getting by on good sense and intelligence. There’s definitely a chance that he could struggle defending against NBA point guards as well as getting into the middle on offense. I have Williams-Goss as a top 60 prospect right now, so it’ll be interesting to see what happens with him as his role expands.

Washington State

The Cougars also only have one prospect worth knowing in DaVonte Lacy, a smooth-shooting guard. He scored 19 points per-game, getting most of them on jump shots. Even when he was able to attack close outs, Lacy seemed much more likely to just settle for a midrange jumper. Lacy’s also able to shoot coming around screens and coming up from the baseline off the catch, which is certainly going to be intriguing to NBA teams. However, he’s also not a particularly useful or reliable defensive player, and there are guys out there who are just as good at shooting the ball who also defend. I have Lacy outside of my top 100, but if he’s able to take another step forward and average well over 20 points per game this year, he could certainly move into the rankings.