College Football Week 5 betting odds: Picking Top 25 teams against the spread
By Mike Dyce
Another week of college football action is upon us and that means another week of betting against the spread. In this weekly column we look at the spread for each game, the trends involved in the match up and try to determine how it should be bet.
We focus strictly on the spread though. Let’s dive right into it.
Thursday
Texas Tech at No. 24 Oklahoma State
A Big 12 clash that sees the Cowboys as 13.5 point favorites. The Texas Tech defense has been rather horrendous this year and Oklahoma State could easily cover. Texas Tech is also 0-5 against the spread in their last give games against Oklahoma State and 1-4 against the spread in their last five games in Stillwater. Take the Cowboys.
No. 11 UCLA at No. 15 Arizona State
A top-25 match up between a pair Pac-12 schools. UCLA comes into Sun Devil Stadium as four point favorites. Both teams are horrendous against the spread this season and only eight points has been the difference in the past three match ups between these schools combined. Arizona State is 3-8 agains the spread in the past 11 games against UCLA, take the Bruins.
Saturday
Wyoming at No. 9 Michigan State
Michigan State comes in as huge favorites over Wyoming, by 30.5 points to be exact. Still, coming off a 73-14 win over Eastern Michigan it is had to thing that the Spartans won’t get it done here. Roll with Sparty.
Tennessee at No. 12 Georgia
The Bulldogs come into the game as 17 point favorites over the Tennessee Volunteers. Tennessee is 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games on the road against Georgia. The problem is the the Vols lost by 24 to the Sooners earlier this year, so they’re capable of losing by this spread, and the Bulldogs have a potent offense as well with a dominant running game. I’m leaning to Georgia.
South Florida at No. 19 Wisconsin
The Badgers are 32.5 point favorites against South Florida. Not a huge favorite of large spreads like this. To make this decision a little bit more difficult, South Florida is 7-13-1 against the spread in its last 21 games, but Wisconsin is 1-5 in its last six. I struggled with this one but will take Wisconsin to cover since they’ve won by this margin in their last two games.
UTEP at No. 25 Kansas State
The UTEP Miners travel to the Little Apple as 26.5 point under dogs. That is a rather large margin of victory, and one that I’m not necessarily comfortable with. UTEP is also 3-0 against the spread this season, while Kansas State is 1-2 against the spread. You broaden that sample size though, UTEP is 1-6 agains the spread in its last seven games on the road and 5-12 in its last 17 games. Still, with a large spread I think you can take UTEP here.
Arkansas vs. No. 6 Texas A&M
The Texas A&M Aggies and Arkansas Razorbacks clash in a SEC match up and the Aggies are 8.5 point favorites. Both teams are 3-1 against the spread this year. The Aggies are 1-4 against the spread in their last give games against Arkansas, but this team seems stronger than years past. I think the Aggies defense helps them cover the spread.
Louisiana Tech at No. 5 Auburn Tigers
The Auburn Tigers are 32.5 favorites over Louisiana Tech. Slightly more than the margin of defeat between LaTech and Oklahoma in the season opener. Still, I’m not too confident given the large spread, but seeing as the Tigers demolished San Jose State you hope for a similar result here and take Auburn.
No. 16 Stanford at Washington
No. 16 Stanford travels to take on Washington as 7.5 point favorites. The Huskies are 2-5 against the spread in its last seven games at home, they’re also 1-4 against the spread in its last five games when playing at home against Stanford.
Cincinnati at No. 22 Ohio State
The Buckeyes host in-state rivals Cincinnati and are 14.5 point favorites in the game. Ohio State is 2-4 against the spread in its last six games at home and 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games. Both teams pack potent offenses, but it’s hard to see Ohio Stat covering.
Missouri at No. 13 South Carolina
The Gamecocks host the Tigers as 5.5 favorites in the clash. The two offenses have similar outputs but the South Carolina defense has struggled to keep opponents off the board. There aren’t any other trends to really look at in this one, and personally I don’t think South Carolina covers.
Memphis at No. 10 Ole Miss
Ole Miss are 18.5 point favorites to defeat Memphis, a rather large spread considering both teams are 3-0 against the spread this season. That being said, the Ole Miss defense has been stout this year and could really slow down Memphis. The question is whether Ole Miss could score enough points to cover, and averaging 44 points a game so far I think so.
New Mexico State at No. 17 LSU
The LSU Tigers are huge 43.5 point favorites at home to New Mexico State. I hate large spreads, and there is no doubt that LSU will blow out New Mexico State, just by this margin? I’d take New Mexico State just for fun.
No. 7 Baylor at Iowa State
The Baylor Bears travel to take on the Cyclones and are 21.5 point favorites. I’m kind of shocked that it is that low of a number, given the fact that Baylor’s offense is averaging nearly 60 points a game and they beat them 71-7 last year. I’d take Baylor to cover.
No. 8 Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Notre Dame travels to take on Syracuse as 11 point favorites. So far this year the Notre Dame team is 2-1 against the spread, while Syracuse is 1-2 against the spread. The Notre Dame defense is capable of holding down Syracuse’s offense and I think they get the job done.
Illinois at No. 21 Nebraska
No. 21 Nebraska Cornhuskers are hosting Illinois in a Big Ten match up and as 18 point favorites. The Illinois defense has been pretty awful giving up 32 points per game and Nebraska could core at will, but 18 is a large number. The Illini are 1-10 in their last 11 road games though, take the Cornhuskers.
Oregon State at No. 18 USC
The USC Trojans take on the Oregon State Beavers as 11 point favorites. Surprisingly USC is 2-5 against the spread when playing Oregon State in the last seven meetings between these teams. Oregon State hasn’t played anyone of note really, and USC has had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off the upset to Boston College. I think USC looks to make a statement and covers.