NBA Shooting Guards: Who’s the Best?
By Eric Saar
This continues my series on the top players at each position in the NBA. For centers, power forwards and small forwards, click the links.
NBA shooting guards used to be so dominant. Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Ray Allen and Jerry West are some of the all-time greats just to name a few. Jordan is heralded as the game’s best player, while Bryant is a close second. Iverson is easily the best pound for pound player ever. Allen is the best three-point shooter ever, and much more. Meanwhile West was so good, he became “The Logo” for the sport.
Note: Kobe has the ability to play well this year if he’s healthy (and stays that way), but I didn’t include him in the list because he missed far too many games in 2013-14 due to injury.
Shooting guards are usually consistent and polished scorers, okay passers with excellent court vision. They shouldn’t be a liability on defense, but don’t have to be amazing either. Who are the elite shooting guards in the NBA right now? James Harden (HOU), Goran Dragic (PHX), DeMar DeRozan (TOR), Monta Ellis (DAL) and Jamal Crawford (LAC) are seemingly the overall best shooting guards right now in the NBA.
Let’s start sifting through the stats to find a winner. We’ll of course start with points per game, which is especially key for shooting guards.
Points per game
- James Harden: 25.4
- DeMar DeRozan: 22.7
- Goran Dragic: 20.3
- Monta Ellis: 19.0
- Jamal Crawford: 18.6
We all knew Harden was going to lead this category. He has the ball for most of the Rockets’ possessions and gets to the free throw line so often.
DeRozan’s high number is surprising due to him carrying the load with Kyle Lowry. Dragic sits at three. (He’s really a shooting guard, but he and Eric Bledsoe can pass for both. For this exercise, Dragic is a shooting guard and Bledsoe is a point guard.)
Ellis and Crawford are near each other at the bottom. Next is assists as these players need to dish the ball to open teammates and be able to safely escape double-teams successfully.
Assists per game
- Assists per game
- James Harden: 6.1
- Goran Dragic: 5.9
- Monta Ellis: 5.7
- DeMar DeRozan: 4.0
- Jamal Crawford: 3.2
Harden wins this statistic too, but with Dragic right on his heels. Ellis isn’t far behind the Dragon either. Then DeRozan and Crawford are at the back of the pack. The difference is, considering their roles, Crawford “should” be a low assist guy, while DeRozan definitely shouldn’t have only four assists per game.
The next category would usually be rebounds for all the bigger players, but for shooting guards who shoot the ball a lot, field goal percentages are important. The True Shooting Percentage (TS%) metric takes into account free throws, two-pointers and threes.
True Shooting Percentage
- James Harden: 61.8%
- Goran Dragic 60.4%
- Jamal Crawford: 55.6 %
- DeMar DeRozan: 53.2%
- Monta Ellis: 53.2%
Another statistic that Harden leads and Dragic is a close second. Then there is a pretty significant drop-off.
All the players can shoot the three, but the disparity between Dragic and Harden is mostly due to free throws.
The next metric is Player Efficiency Rating (PER) that takes into account most everything a player does on the court. In this category, the average NBA player is a 15. For reference, Kevin Durant and LeBron James both have nearly 30 PERs.
Player Efficiency Rating
- James Harden: 23.51
- Goran Dragic: 21.43
- DeMar DeRozan: 18.42
- Jamal Crawford: 17.39
- Monta Ellis: 16.83
It’s like a broken record. Harden then Dragic right behind. Followed by a drop-off.
The final metric is value added, which analyzes the number of points a player adds over the course of the season.
Value Added
- James Harden: 539.2
- Goran Dragic: 435.4
- DeMar DeRozan: 356.8
- Monta Ellis: 285.4
- Jamal Crawford: 215.2
Harden wins this metric and Dragic is second. It’s unbelievable how consistently good across the board they both are. It’s easy to see how Phoenix fans got frustrated at Dragic’s All-star snub while Harden was an All-Star starter with their stats so close. At least The Dragon got the All-NBA third-team honors at the end of the year.
Harden is the best shooting guard in the league right now by nearly every statistical category with Dragic as the clear number two. However, factoring in defense, it is very possible Dragic can pass him in 2014-15 as the best of the NBA shooting guards.
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