NFL: Green Bay, New Orleans and the best Week 4 picks

Football is hardly recognizable from a decade ago for a variety of reasons. Whether intentional or not, officials are greatly impacting games this season with calls in the secondary that award chunks of free yards and new sets of downs. It’s affecting game outcomes and point spreads. I’ve been on the wrong end of some terrible calls. It should balance itself out, but until then I proceed cautiously with a selective number of NFL picks in Week 4.

Green Bay -1.5: Aaron Rodgers is telling rabid Packers fans to chill out at Lambeau Field, sparing the hyperbole. Green Bay is 1-2 and the passing game looks different with Jordy Nelson as a number one receiver. Eddie Lacy needs to be featured more and should against a Chicago defense that has relied on timely interceptions from Colin Kaepernick and Geno Smith win ballgames. Also, they have been dealt quality hands receiving pass interference and illegal contact flags, plus a Jay Cutler fumble was ruled down and the Jets lost a touchdown before halftime on Monday night.

The Bears are charmed lately, but lost to the Bills at home. With two games played on both coasts, Green Bay is the more desperate team and beating Chicago on the road would restore order to a sluggish beginning.

New Orleans -3: Sean Payton and Drew Brees haven’t been able to shake the stigma of being a different team outside the Superdome. It didn’t prevent them from winning a Super Bowl in 2009 outdoors at Florida. Texas native Drew Brees should be anticipating this matchup to play the NFL franchise he grew watching.

After Dallas lost convincingly to San Francisco in week one, the Cowboys have won back-to-back road games. Tony Romo and company rallied from a 21-0 deficit for a 34-31 victory. Rod Marinelli is long removed from going 0-16 as Detroit Lions head coach in 2008. He’s scheming to patch up a Cowboys defense prognosticated by outsiders to be quite vulnerable. They will have several disadvantages facing a Saints offense, which is always more comfortable playing in a dome.

Houston -3: Depending on where you get this line (it’s hovered between 3 and 3.5), oddsmakers don’t expect a lot of scoring in this one with a set total of 41 points. I don’t especially prefer backing erratic quarterbacks. In this game Ryan Fitzpatrick and E.J. Manuel are two unpredictable signal callers. While I think Buffalo is headed in a positive direction with Doug Marrone, there have been stories of discontent between the coach and its front office.

Gauging from what happened last weekend at home to San Diego, Bill O’Brien and Romeo Crennel should have a gameplan to contain Buffalo’s run game and force Manuel into the 23 for 39 passing day he incurred last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a turnover machine in his NFL career and had three picks in last week’s 30-17 loss. Now he faces a team who endorsed him with a starting QB contract only to release him two years ago. Arian Foster’s bothersome hamstring makes him a game time decision, but Houston should be prepped for beating the Bills at home.

Jaguars +13.5: Getting it at 14 would be ideal in a matchup of a winless team flying across the country to play a home team brimming with confidence. An old bromide exists for NFL gambling in that when you get double-digit points you must take them. Even if Jacksonville ranks near the bottom of every offensive and defensive stat. Even if Phillip Rivers is playing like an elite quarterback. It’s not only a semi-contrarian pick, but it’s based on perceived value.

Chad Henne was finally pulled in last week’s 44-17 burial, paving the way for Blake Bortles. He flashed glimpses of competence well beyond that of Henne in preseason exhibitions. The key will be limiting anticipated rookie errors and sustaining drives. The Chargers rely on Donald Brown to run the ball after Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead suffered major knee and leg injuries. If San Diego becomes one-dimensional, it may serve as a vehicle for an interception or two to keep it closer than most surmise. A lot of “ifs,” but it’s a lot of points too.

Atlanta -3?: I put a question mark by Atlanta because I consider it the foremost trap game of the week. The Falcons harshly disposed of the Buccaneers last Thursday 56-14. Statistically they came into that game with the worst defense in the NFL. They may get a chance to improve upon those numbers facing a Minnesota Vikings squad using rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Matt Cassel is lost for 2014 with a fractured foot.

Adrian Peterson’s career in Minnesota could very well be done, but defensive expert Mike Zimmer’s team stayed in the game last Sunday at New Orleans. They battle another NFC South opponent with several offensive weapons. It’s logical to think a spread of more than three points would be lined for this game. That’s where I have to convince myself linesmakers made it three for a reason. Not because they are in a giving mood. I can’t envision betting the Vikings, but contrarian viewpoints urge me not to pick what appears to be the surest cover of the week on paper.

Tail them, fade, them, flip a coin, or continue with your own hot streak. Just don’t unload all you got and blame me. This is for entertainment purposes only right? Good luck.

Clark Griswold: Eddie, has anyone ever told you you’re bad luck?
Cousin Eddie: Those were my mother’s dying words. But I guess if your body’s covered in third degree burns, and your foot’s caught in a bear trap, you tend to start talkin’ crazy.

-Vegas Vacation (1997)

More from FanSided.com

NFL Power Rankings Week 3: Seahawks, Broncos flip-flop; Cardinals crack top 5
College Basketball: Preseason AAC  power rankings
NBA: 7 players with the most to lose in 2014-15
College Football Player Rankings: Week 4
All 30 NHL franchises ranked by all-time greatness