Xander Bogaerts: Is Red Sox SS really turning a corner?

Sep 16, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Boston Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts (2) singles against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the third inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Xander Bogaerts came into the season as arguably the top prospect in all of baseball, with an everyday spot in the lineup of the defending World Series Champs all but guaranteed to him. This obviously made him a hot sleeper coming into the 2014 fantasy baseball season. It has not gone well since.

Based on just about every measurable metric, Bogaerts has been a disappointment this year. He’s hitting only .237 on the year with 12 homers. Those are not startable numbers in just about any league setup. An interesting thing has happened in September, however.

Bogaerts has been hitting .308 with four home runs and a .830 OPS. That’s not only a huge turnaround from his disappointing year, but also startable. Actually, it’s a little more than startable. He’s been a great fantasy baseball shortstop.

Is this just good luck? A top prospect coming into his own? Just enough to make him a hot sleeper for 2015 fantasy baseball drafts?

When looking a little deeper into Bogaerts numbers and interesting trend jumps out. He had a drastic change in his hitting approach in September.  In September Xander Bogaerts is swinging a lot more, and making solid contact. For the month, Xander Bogaerts is swinging at 52.2% of the pitches he sees. This is up almost ten percentage points over the rest of the year.

He’s also making more contact with all that extra swinging. In September he’s making contact with 82.5% of pitches, this is up about seven percentage points over the rest of the year.

This is usually not a recipe for success and any success is usually due to luck on the players batting average n balls in play (BABIP). I’m not sure that’s the case for Bogaerts however. His BABIP is right around MLB norms. The biggest noticeable difference in his hitting stats is a huge increase in his line drive rate. For the month his line drive rate is 26.5%. That’s 5th among shortstops for the month, between Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez. This sort of line drive rate will lead to a solid, if not superior, batting average.

This is seemingly a 180 degree change for Bogaerts. He’s always been a patient hitter with high walk rates throughout his minor league and short major league career. This new approach seems the exact opposite, and contrary to the patient approach the Red Sox have been preaching for years. Yet, it seems to be working, at least for now.

I question how much of this is sustainable, as on the surface it appears contrary to his career and what his team is looking for. I’ve been riding his hot hitting for my fantasy baseball teams this year, but I’d be hesitant to make him a 2015 target at this point. I’d need to see if this approach is something he will look to continue, and if it’s even sustainable at its current levels, before I believe this is the new and improved Xander Bogaerts.