What’s wrong with LeSean McCoy?

After taking the league by storm in his debut NFL season, Chip Kelly has his Philadelphia Eagles on track for more success in year two. A successful start has not been without bumps and bruises, however, and the struggles of star running back LeSean McCoy are becoming too prevalent to ignore.

Having won the rushing title with 1,607 yards on the ground in 2013, McCoy has been a massive disappointment to start the season. Though his team is in much better shape through four games — the Eagles are 3-1, after starting 1-3 last year — Philadelphia’s leading rusher looks like a shell of himself. McCoy pondered whether he could join the 2000-yard club in the offseason, and cut weight in an effort to reach new heights,  but he has struggled to live up to his own standard of excellence.

Part of McCoy’s brilliance last season stemmed from his ability to turn nothing into something, and something into a home run, dancing around defenders into the endzone. Barry Sanders comparisons were a bit of a stretch given the resume of the former Detroit Lion, though you could certainly see the echoes of Sanders in open-field jukes that turned defenders into bystanders. Those same cuts are appearing too often in the backfield in 2014, and McCoy’s 2.7 yards per carry average reflects his struggle to build any momentum.

Teams were always likely to hone in on Philadelphia’s running game after the season McCoy had on the ground, and holes in the lineup haven’t helped either. The Eagles were without starting right tackle Lane Johnson to open the season after he tested positive for performance-enhancing substances, and it’s only gone downhill from there. Separate injuries to All-Pro Evan Mathis (MCL) and Jason Kelce (sports hernia) have vaporized any sense of continuity in the trenches, forcing backups into primetime duty. Coach Kelly preaches the philosophy of “next man up” across the team, but it’s tough to carry on with so many key teammates on the mend.

Attributing McCoy’s struggles to offensive line play might be oversimplifying things, however.  Through four weeks, he hasn’t looked like the best back on Philadelphia’s roster. Darren Sproles, acquired for a fifth-round pick and believed to be nearing the end of his career, has thoroughly outproduced McCoy on a per-play basis. You could subtract his longest run of the season — a 49-yard, fourth-down touchdown that caught Jacksonville with their pants down — and Sproles would still be outrushing McCoy by over a yard per run. He has been authoritative where McCoy has been indecisive.

The Eagles haven’t alluded to any sort of health concern with McCoy, and they even inserted him back into their week three game against Washington after McCoy looked to have suffered a head injury. But something might be amiss with Philadelphia’s star runner, who gave a non-answer regarding his condition following a loss to San Francisco. “It doesn’t matter if I’m healthy or not. We have to win games. I am fine.”

Many would interpret that as a standard football player non-answer; few players will admit that they’re hurting in a public forum, as it opens them up to potential targeting on the behalf of other teams. McCoy being less than 100 percent would provide an explanation for his play, though, and it seems a more logical conclusion than anything else. Running backs may have a short shelf life, but McCoy is only 25 and its unlikely that he hit the proverbial wall so suddenly. He’s not a power runner that exposed himself to droves of hits, and his elusive style would seem to lend itself to a longer, healthier career.

Where I think the answer lies is in the meta of the game, more specifically in Philadelphia’s tendency to throw the ball early in the season.

Philadelphia succeeded early and often in 2013 by balancing McCoy’s rushing with the combined efforts of Michael Vick and (predominantly) Nick Foles. The Eagles run/pass split ended in almost a dead heat last season, 500 rushes in comparison to 508 passing attempts. Early in 2014, Kelly’s offense is passing much more than they run, throwing 123 times against 85 runs. That’s roughly 59 percent of the offense being devoted to the pass attack, a far cry from last season’s end results.

The rushing offense doesn’t necessarily deserve more chances based strictly on results, but they also haven’t been placed in position to establish any rhythm. Philadelphia went down by 10-plus points in each of its first three games, necessitating more of a reliance on scoring quickly through the air. When used creatively — as on Sproles’ long fourth-down rush, and a third and long draw play against the Colts — the run game has rewarded Kelly with results. Not falling behind early would make it more palatable to establish the run, and the Eagles would do well to let the game chase them, rather than the other way around.

One thing to remember — as a general rule, the NFL is the most difficult sports league to analyze due to the brevity of each season. 16 games (plus playoffs, if you’re lucky) grind the bodies of participants into dust, but it’s an impossible sample to draw meaningful conclusions from. Hockey and basketball play five times the games, while baseball plays 10 times the contests as football, making the data and lessons learned feel a little more meaningful.

To use a more specific example, “Linsanity”, the meteoric ascension of hooper Jeremy Lin, was captured mostly in a 12-game stretch prior to basketball’s All-Star Break. When an NFL season is the equivalent of Linsanity plus McCoy’s four-game freeze-out, it’s no wonder the playoffs constantly shock us. When the season concludes, it’s within reason to believe that Eagles fans will look back on McCoy’s struggles and laugh. Kelly’s Eagles didn’t find their quarterback let alone their footing til the season’s second half in 2013, and it’s not time to panic just yet.

In-season, it’s much tougher to write off struggles as aberrations. Football fans live and die on the week-to-week results of their favorite teams, and when a surefire star can’t find his footing, the instant reaction is to throw your hands up and wonder, “What gives?”

Take a minute to breathe. Eagles fans should remember that the struggles of LeSean McCoy go deeper than the individual, or even the unit he plays for. McCoy has been a letdown to open the 2014 campaign, but time will tell if its more a product of his teammates and coaching staff than his own failings. If we’re still having this conversation in December, I’ll be pressing the panic button along with you.

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