2015 NBA Draft: Who to watch for in the SEC, Part 1

Mar 8, 2014; Gainesville, FL, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Alex Poythress (22) and guard Aaron Harrison (2) against the Florida Gators during the second half at Stephen C. O

This week, we’ll be previewing each power conference at Upside & Motor, hopefully giving you an idea of who to watch for in regards to the 2015 NBA Draft on each team when the NCAA season kicks off. We finish up with the SEC.

SEC basketball has been extraordinarily top-heavy for a while, typically dominated by Kentucky and Florida as the rest of the conference fell by the wayside. Only three teams have made the NCAA tournament each of the last two seasons, as the middle of the conference has devoured itself and popped many of its own bubbles.

Throughout that time though, draft prospects have held steady throughout the league. Since having the top three overall picks in the 2012 NBA Draft, the conference has only had five combined first rounders in the last two seasons combined. That will change this year.

The SEC is the most dominant conference on the Upside & Motor Big Board, with seven players being featured already and three more in the next five who just missed the board. A lot of that has to do with Kentucky being somehow deeper than they’ve ever been, but even the lower teams are littered with intriguing prospects that could end up being drafted.

Because of these factors — and my own loquacious nature — I’ve been forced to split this into two halves. There is no deeper conference in the NCAA this season as it comes to NBA prospects.

So without further ado, here is who to watch for in the SEC.

Alabama

The Crimson Tide had a down season at 13-19 in 2014, and lose leading scorer Trevor Releford, who is now plying his trade in Poland. Unsurprisingly after that poor season, they also don’t really bring back any intriguing guys that could be drafted in 2015. Levi Randolph is a 6’5″ shooting guard that should lead the team in scoring this season if he can iron out his jump shot a bit more. Shannon Hale is a long, skinny 6’8″ stretch forward that can step away from the hoop to the NCAA three-point line, and those guys are always intriguing. But still, none of these players are anything to write home about from a draft perspective.

For the future, the team does bring in an excellent recruiting class by Alabama’s basketball standards. Justin Coleman is an excellent pass-first point guard that could make waves in a couple of years, and Riley Norris is a knock down three point shooter that could become an interesting 6’7″ wing with some development. Both of these guys were four-star prospects, and they’ve added another one in Donta Hale for the 2015 class already. Alabama basketball should be on its way back, but it just won’t be this season.

Arkansas

With their two best NBA draft prospects in nearly ten years in tow, the Razorbacks should make the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008 this season.

Let’s start with Bobby Portis. Portis is a 6’10” power forward that can stretch the floor into the midrange, attack the basket, and block shots. Those guys tend to have a place in the NBA, period. I’d like to see improvement in two marked places this season, though, in order to not only solidify his stock, but also potentially send it soaring. If he can possibly get his range out to the NCAA three-point line, that would be exceptional for his potential. A 6’10” stretch-four that has a fair amount of athleticism is every modern coach’s dream. He also needs to improve a bit as a rebounder. His 15.5 percent defensive rebounding rate is far too low for a first round big man, and that’s the main reason I seem to be a bit more down on him than most evaluators. I have at 24th on the Upside & Motor Big Board right now, but with stronger rebounding he could rocket up that list.

The second Razorbacks’ prospect that could get into the first round is Michael Qualls, an explosive 6’6″ wing with a near 7-foot wingspan that can leap out of the gym. Because of his length and his great athletic ability, Qualls obviously has a ton of potential on the defensive end, where he can guard four collegiate positions right now. NBA teams will look to turn him loose on the wings and let his length pester the hell of opposing offensive players. However, Qualls also possesses a bit more offensive potential, and really improved as a perimeter shooter in 2014. If he can get that three-point number up from 35 percent to 40 percent, he has great potential as a 3 and D player. As such, I have him rated in the 40s on my top 100 right now. However, like Victor Oladipo before him, Qualls could really shoot up the draft process if he shows the ability to create plays for himself this season.

Outside of those two, shooting guard Rashad Madden also returns to the fold as a 6’5″ wing who made 40 percent of his nearly four three-point attempts per game in 2014. This was a marked improvement on his first two years so there could be a bit of a regression, but shooters are always worth watching, and Madden could move into our top 100 at some point depending on how his team performs this season. Remember, this was actually their leading scorer last season and he could easily do it again this year.

Finally, I’m also intrigued by Moses Kingsley, a little-used forward last season who only played 368 minutes last season. At 6’9 with a near 7’3 wingspan, Kingsley obviously has some potential as a shot blocker and rebounder, and his per-minute statistics bear that out. However, I’m rather unimpressed at this point by his rudimentary offensive game. I like the athleticism and defensive skill, but I’m going to wait until he sees more game time this season before ranking him. He could be a first round-type guy, or he could be someone that isn’t worth giving a third look.

Auburn

Auburn basketball is back on the map with Bruce Pearl taking over as head coach this season. While his returning roster from the Tony Barbee era doesn’t have much to get excited about, he brought in one big time transfer that should make a big impact in the SEC.

Doug McDermott was not the leading scorer in the NCAA last season, Antoine Mason was. The 6’2″ slasher can get into the lane against any competition, and once he’s there he uses a various array of floaters, lay-ins, and midrange jumpers to finish against the competition. However, his best skill is clearly getting to the free-throw line. He lived at the line last year, averaging nearly 11 attempts per contest even though he only made 73 percent of them. Mason will absolutely put up points in the SEC because of that, but I’m less bullish on his NBA prospects due to his shooting. Only making 29 percent of his 431 threes throughout his career, Mason must improve as a shooter at this size to succeed in the NBA. I don’t have him in my top 100 right now, but if he becomes a better shooter from distance there is a chance he could move in.

Florida

The Florida Gators lose four starters off of their Final Four team last year, but still have plenty of talent in the tank for the upcoming season. Leading the way will be potential lottery pick Chris Walker, possibly the most athletic power forward to enter the draft in a while.

Greg Mason wrote a pretty extensive profile of Walker earlier this offseason, and not much has changed since then. He’ll still largely be under the microscope this season and we’ll need to see how he effective he is as he makes a large jump in competition from the lowest level in Florida high schools to the SEC. I have him as my 11th best prospect on the Upside & Motor Big Board, and think he’ll probably either rise or fall from that position as opposed to staying steady.

That one remaining starter mentioned earlier is Michael Frazier. Frazier was possibly most efficient three-point shooter in the country last season when taking volume and effectiveness into account, making 45 percent of his 265 three-point attempts. He’s also an excellent defender that utilizes his length to make up for his slightly underwhelming height at 6’4″. His role last season for the Gators will be much more indicative of what his NBA role will look like, so I’m not particularly sure what I want to see from him this season. Improved ball-handling would be nice, but it’s not totally essential. I have him as one of the next five guys off of my big board, and he’ll probably stick in that 25-45 range throughout the season.

Also, Kasey Hill will take the point guards reins from Scottie Wilbekin and be expected to flash the potential that made him the consensus second-best point guard in the 2013 recruiting class. However, given that he’ll be 21 on draft day and 22 midway through the 2015 NBA season, this is an extremely important season for him. Last season, Hill was still at his best when he could get out into transition and make plays in the open floor. For him to reach the lofty potential that was expected of him out of high school, he needs to start making better plays in the half-court and start making better decisions. He’s not in my top 100 right now, but he could easily get there by the end of the season.

Two other forwards intrigue me on this roster. Dorian Finney-Smith had a good first season for the Gators, but is still an undersized power forward by the looks of it. It’s clear that he’s working to improve upon his shooting, but he only make 29 percent of his three point attempts last season. Still, he’s a good rebounder and has a strong NBA-ready body so it’s worth seeing how he adjusts to an increased role this season.

Finally, freshman Devin Robinson enters the fold as a near 6’9″ small forward. He can shoot the ball from distance already, but really needs to improve as a ball-handler in order to attack closeouts. There’s a chance he’ll start as a freshman as a floor spacer next to Michael Frazier, and we’ll likely report on him as the season progresses.

Georgia

The Bulldogs went a surprising 12-6 last season in the SEC on the coattails of an easy schedule. However, Georgia does return an interesting backcourt in Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann, and Mann is the better player from an NBA perspective. He’s a 6’5″ point guard that got to the line over 11 times per-40 minutes last season. He can clearly get into the lane with ease, but there are definitely problems for his NBA potential. First of all, he doesn’t shoot well from distance, meaning defenses can sag off of him and not worry a ton about whether he’s going to hurt them from deep. Also, he turns the ball over more often than he makes plays for others, with a 0.9 assist-to-turnover rate last season. Improving upon those two aspects will be critical.

Kentucky

I don’t even know where to begin with this team that is just laden with NBA talent. Karl Towns leads the way as the second-rated prospect on the Upside & Motor Big Board. He’s a well-rounded, new-wave 7-footer that can attack the basket from the midrange, play in the post, and even knock down jumpers out to the NCAA three-point line. There’s very little that this Dominican product can’t do on offense skill-wise, and when taking that in conjunction with his excellent athleticism it’s pretty easy to imagine him becoming one of the two or three best offensive big men in the NBA at one point. That athleticism and length should help him in the paint defensively as well, and I expect him to be able to protect the rim at an NBA level. The only real question I have for the future is if he’s going to be able to move well enough in space on defense to play the power forward spot regularly, or if he’ll be better suited to the center position. I’m a pretty big fan of Towns, and wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him go first overall in this draft.

While Towns is the only super elite prospect, Kentucky does still have five other players in the top 35 of the Upside & Motor Big Board. Tops of that group is Willie Cauley-Stein, an entirely different type of center than Towns. Cauley-Stein is a defensive big man that will draw comparisons to Tyson Chandler with the way that he moves in the pick-and-roll — both offensively and defensively — and defends the rim. These guys are always extraordinarily valuable. The downside is that he can’t shoot from outside of the lane, and doesn’t particularly have any post moves. However, with playing time staying constant, Cauley-Stein should be a lottery pick due to the defensive potential he possesses in the modern NBA.

My next favorite Kentucky player is Aaron Harrison, the clutch-shooting wing from the 2014 NCAA tournament. I think that his ability to slash to the rim and get to the line will translate well to the NBA. Also, he doesn’t turn the ball over often, and isn’t afraid to swing the ball if there’s nothing there for him. However, the key for Harrison will be ironing out the jump shot. He did shoot 36 percent from three-point range last season, especially coming on late in the year (he shot 46 percent on his final 50 attempts), but he needs to prove that he can be counted on to make threes consistently. If he does that, he should go in the first round.

The final Wildcat on my big board is Alex Poythress, the 6’8″ combo forward that has seen sporadic playing time in his first two seasons on campus. He’ll likely be making the full-time transition to the small forward spot this season with the depth that the Wildcats have in the front court, and that’s the best thing that could possibly happen for his development. Poythress possesses all of the athleticism needed to play on the wing, but doesn’t have the requisite ball skills or shooting quite yet. Getting this offseason to work on those things should only help him in the long run, and with a little bit of projection it’s not difficult at all to see him going in the first round.

The big board right now does not feature Dakari Johnson, but that shouldn’t be a slight at his potential as a post center. It speaks more to the logjam that Kentucky has at the center position, as I think he’s going to receive precious few minutes of playing time again this season. While he’s on the floor, he’s an absolute load in the post that very few players are capable of pushing off of the block, and it’s damned near impossible once he establishes position. The biggest question for him going forward will be whether or not he can improve his efficiency around the rim. He took 83 percent of his shots within five feet of the rim last season, only making 62 percent of them. A guy with his sort of size needs to finish better there. Plus, he struggles to move well outside of the paint on defense, which limits his value. My guess is that he ends up being back in 2016, but he would have a shot to go near the end of the first round if he declared in 2015.

Then, of course, there’s Andrew Harrison, who I’m more down on than most. The problems with Harrison are two-fold. First off, he doesn’t look comfortable shooting from the perimeter. While he made 35 percent of his three-point attempts last season, his shooting motion is not nearly as fluid as Aaron’s and he simply looks less confident in the jumper. However, the much larger problem revolves around his point guard skill. Harrison struggles to get into the middle against larger, longer opponents because of a below-average first step. Oftentimes, he’s able to bully his opponents into the lane, but this is a much lower percentage play for a point guard in the NBA for two reasons. First, the shot clock is shorter and that wastes precious seconds. Second, it’s much more difficult to actually bully your way into the paint in the NBA. So while his height for the position is exceptional, he’s still missing the most important part of point guard play, and that’s being able to consistently break down the defense to either make plays for himself or others. I have him as a top 35 prospect right now, but it wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him lose minutes to the next guy on our list.

Tyler Ulis is an undersized jitterbug point guard that has exceptional quickness and feel for the game in addition to playing smothering, pestering defense. Also, if the trip to the Bahamas was any indication, he’s forming an excellent relationship with Towns in the pick-and-roll already, and might be the better option for the Wildcats in the future. At 5’9″, it’s always going to be difficult for him to make his way in the NBA. But I expect him to be one of the breakout freshmen of this NCAA season.

Next, there is a pair of big men who are intriguing on an NBA level, but likely won’t receive the playing time they need to declare for the 2015 draft. Marcus Lee is a springy, long 6’10” shot blocker that was very highly rated coming out of high school but simply got lost in the shuffle last season. Basically, he has no tangible offensive skill to speak outside of energy and athleticism, but oftentimes that is enough for him to contribute in meaningful ways on the offensive glass and in transition. He also needs to put on quite a bit of weight still to reach his most effective levels. Having said all of this though, Lee still could eventually become a first round pick because of his length and defensive potential.

The other big man is freshman Trey Lyles, a consensus top-10 recruit this season out of Indiana. He’s a post player that has range out to about 15-18 feet, to go with good footwork and moves on the block. Lyles is probably one of the more purely skilled post players to come out of high school in a while. But the questions with him come up on the defensive end, where he’s not particularly quick enough right now to defend in space, nor is he a factor defending the rim. My suggestion to him would be to use this year where playing time will be a at a premium to really improve his body and try to get better in space and potentially add some inches to his vertical. At nearly 7’4″, he has the wingspan to become a factor at the rim and in space. I think he eventually will be a first rounder, but probably not until 2016.

Finally, another five-star wing joins the Wildcats this year in Devin Booker, a 6’5″ wing shooter that should actually see some time behind Poythress and Harrison. He’s a smart player that will fit in immediately off of the bench for the Wildcats, a player that they’ll be able to trust to take open shots but not force bad looks. Again, this is another first-round talent.

LSU

After a season that culminated in the Tigers having their bubble burst due to a late swoon, the Tigers return an excellent squad that should return to the NCAA tournament. That squad features two potential first round picks in Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey, as well as one interesting future player in Elbert Robinson.

First, let’s start with Mickey, who is sitting at 28th on the Upside & Motor Big Board despite being an undersized center prospect. Why do I like him so much? Well, first off he’s a very springy athlete that can leap out of the gym and utilizes his long arms to block shots more effectively than just about anyone in this class. He averaged nearly four blocks per-40 minutes, and has an NBA-ready frame that should be able to take the wear and grind of NBA post players. The height is a definite concern, and honestly it probably relegates him to more of a power forward role if he can become a more versatile offensive weapon. But his defensive potential is off the charts and with some development he could be a very useful player.

Next, let’s get to Jarell Martin. Martin is also an undersized forward, but he is pretty stuck between positions because of lacking wingspan and height. He’s athletic and does most of his damage from the midrange at this point, either through jump shots or through slashes to the rim. He’s improving his perimeter skills, as he took nearly 100 threes last season, but doesn’t have the ball handling or shooting skills to have a shot to play full-time at the 3 yet. He’s a pure tweener right now, which is typically bad for NBA prospects. His best bet right now is to work hard on his shooting ability and become a full-time stretch-4. I have him outside of my top 30, but he is a major breakout candidate on the collegiate landscape this season.

Finally, Elbert Robinson is a 7-foot behemoth who could eventually turn into something useful. He’s a lefty that is agile for his 270-pound frame, and scores well as a true post presence. He’s nowhere near the NBA right now, but he could make it in 2016-17.