NFL Playoff Odds: Who’s most likely to make the postseason?
By Keith Myers
NFC East
| Team | W | L | Pct. | Pt. Dif | GB | Odds | W. Odds |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 1 | .750 | 29 | — | 64.1% | 32.2% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 1 | .750 | 18 | — | 56.1% | 48.7% |
| New York Giants | 2 | 2 | .500 | 12 | 1 | 35.1% | 25.2% |
| Washington | 1 | 3 | .250 | -14 | 2 | 7.0% | 22.0% |
While Dallas is given a slight edge by the basic model because of their superior point differential, the more complex weighted model greatly prefers the Eagles to make the playoffs.
Interestingly, both the Giants and Washington have similar chances to make the playoffs according to the weighted model. This is a bit unexpected given that the Giants have won an additional game and has a vastly superior point differential.
NFC North
| Team | W | L | Pct. | Pt. Dif | GB | Odds | W. Odds |
| Detroit Lions | 3 | 1 | .750 | 23 | — | 70.8% | 77.9% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 2 | 2 | .500 | 7 | 1 | 39.0% | 18.9% |
| Green Bay Packers | 2 | 2 | .500 | -4 | 1 | 29.2% | 51.5% |
| Chicago Bears | 2 | 2 | .500 | -8 | 1 | 23.3% | 21.4% |
The NFC North is currently the league’s toughest division, with no team below .500. This should make these odds worth watching over the next few weeks to see if there are significant shift in the predictions.
The Lions are currently the class of the division in both prediction systems, with over a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs in both models. They are off to a great start this season, and just need to continue their current level of play if they want to play in the postseason.
It is also worth noting that the weighted model does not like the Vikings at this point, even though they have the best point differential of the three 2-2 teams.