At 0-4 with the Chargers twice, Arizona, Cleveland, Denver, and Seattle as their next six opponents, the Oakland Raiders are going nowhere fast, again. Gone is Dennis Allen, injured is Derek Carr, and helpless are the Raiders. They’re somehow worse than last year’s team that lost six straight games to end the season. Oakland wasn’t expected to be good this season, but after a free agent spending spree coupled with a draft that netted them impact players on defense, quarterback, and the offensive line, it wasn’t outlandish to think they could take a small step forward.
It’s a lost season for the Raiders, and yet, the future doesn’t seem quite as bleak as it has in the past. Much of that has to do with this past draft, that’s netted Oakland at least three players that look like potential impact players. The past two seasons, the most depressing part about these bad Raider teams is the dearth of young talent on the roster. When Reggie McKenzie took over the job, he didn’t have a full stock of draft picks, thanks to some bad trades involving Carson Palmer and Terrelle Pryor, and a bad cap situation to clean up.
The Raiders had only six picks in 2012, including none in the first or second rounds, and didn’t hit on any of them. Miles Burris is probably the best guy from that class, and he’s pretty bad at football. In 2013, McKenzie fared a little bit better, adding useful pieces in Sio Moore, Mychal Rivera, Stacy McGee, and Brice Butler. But as of right now, his first and second round picks, DJ Hayden and Menelik Watson are much closer to busts than impact players. Hayden can’t stay healthy and Watson can’t get on the field. McKenzie has been better with undrafted free agents, but overall his 2012 and 2013 drafts have netted very little in the way of depth and more importantly impact players.
That’s not the case in 2013. Khalil Mack has been impressive over Oakland’s first four games. He’s yet to record a sack, but has shown elite athletic ability and explosiveness both rushing the passer and in the running game. ProFootballFocus’ grading system (subscription only) has Mack as one of the very best outside linebackers in football so far this season. According to their grading, he’s been better against the run than any other outside linebacker, which includes those who play in both a 3-4 and a 4-3. ProFootballFocus’ grading system isn’t the end all be all way of evaluating production, but Mack has looked great during the games. He’s passing the eye-test and the data just backs that up.
Mack is classified as a 3-4 outside linebacker, and here’s are PFF’s top 10 so far this year:
And for good measure, this is what the data looks like for the top-10 4-3 OLBs:
Mack has been impressive however way you cut it, but he’s not the only Oakland rookie that has a potentially bright future. Third round guard Gabe Jackson has been solid, especially in week two versus JJ Watt, as has 7th round cornerback TJ Carrie. It’s only been four games, but those three have looked good. The Raiders could use as many good football players as they can get.
Of course, the most important pick of the draft was the second round selection of Derek Carr. He hasn’t had much to work with; the running game has been a disaster, and the defense was downright horrific in weeks two and four. Carr hasn’t come in and lit it up, but he doesn’t look like a fish out of water either. Like all young passers typically do, he’s struggled with handling pressure so far. Coming into the draft, that was one of the main concerns surrounding Carr. He wasn’t very good at handling blitzes and pressures in college and has to improve if he’s going to become an elite NFL quarterback.
Regardless, early returns on Carr certainly aren’t negative. He’s injured now and won’t be back for a few weeks, but for the first time in a long time the Raiders have some hope at the quarterback position. Last year, Terrelle Pryor’s run of success always felt like more of a fluke than the real deal, and that turned out to be true. Before him they had Carson Palmer, a league average quarterback who played well last year on a good Arizona team. But the Cardinals are farther along than the Raiders were then, and certainly now. He would’ve been a better option last season and could’ve been a bridge to Carr this year, but Palmer was never going to be the long term solution in Oakland.
And while Reggie McKenzie’s free agent spending spree this offseason hasn’t panned out, the Raiders aren’t locked into these contracts long term.
While McKenzie may not have added much talent this offseason, he did a great job with the cap in terms of maintaining long term flexibility. Next off-season, the Raiders can hit the reset button on much of the roster and will be able to try again in free agency. Of course, that doesn’t guarantee that they’ll add long term building blocks, they certainly didn’t this year. With a decaying stadium and a horrifying record over the past decade, Oakland isn’t exactly a prime destination for free agents.
Whoever the next Raiders coach is, he won’t be coming into as horrible a situation as Allen did. He may not have been a good coach, but he didn’t have a whole lot to work with either. Much of his tenure was spent in the early stages of a full rebuild, as McKenzie (correctly) tore the team down. Now it’s time to build it back up.
The Raiders certainly don’t have an attractive situation moving forward, the roster overall is still devoid of young building blocks, but at least there are a few pieces in place where before there were none. Couple that with a clean cap situation and a mostly full stock of draft picks moving forward, and the next Raider coach should have a better chance for success than Allen did. This season may be a lost one, but there’s a glimmer of hope for the Raiders moving forward.
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