College football: tracking the undefeated teams

We are now a month plus into the football season, so it is time to run down what has happened so far. This is the second installment of the series.

Top five September upsets:

More from College Football Odds

Here we will track the undefeated teams and their chances of making the four team playoff. Of course, there are still a lot of undefeated teams right now. This list will get whittled d0wn a lot over the next month.

Florida State (4-0): The Seminoles have looked beatable in three of the four games, and the one that they didn’t was against 1-AA The Citadel. That said, their schedule is pretty weak down the stretch. The only ranked team that they have left is when Notre Dame comes visiting on October 18th. After Notre Dame, there are several games that could give them trouble such as at Louisville and at Miami. Virginia won’t be easy either. If they manage to win out, I think they are in regardless even though the ACC as a whole is weaker than last year.

Georgia Tech (4-0): I look at this, and I wonder how they made it this far. They needed a late touchdown to beat Georgia Southern, and came back to beat Virginia Tech as well. They avoid Florida State during the regular season, but games against Miami, Virginia, and Clemson look tough, but they are all at home. If they make it that far, they get to travel to Athens for the yearly tilt with Georgia. Their chances of winning out are not great, but in order to do so, they would finish the season with wins over Georgia and Florida State in the ACC Championship. That would get them in.

Oklahoma (4-0): The Sooners have looked outstanding on defense for the most part, and their offense has looked pretty good too. With the Big 12(10) as a whole a bit down, they need convincing wins over TCU and Texas, and need to play well against Kansas State and Baylor. The good news is that both of those are in Norman, and so is Bedlam. Only three of their remaining eight games are on the road, with one at a neutral site in Dallas. The stars are aligning for Oklahoma. Now all they have to do is take advantage of it.

Baylor (4-0): Bryce Petty looks healthy again, and the defense is pretty good. That said, their schedule is backloaded. They face four ranked teams, and still have a trip to DKR that is never easy. If they win out, they are in. If they play Oklahoma close and the SEC beats each other up, they may be able to sneak in with a loss, though the SMU-Northwestern State-Buffalo out of conference schedule is sad.

TCU (3-0): The Horned Frogs are flying a bit under the radar right now. They have quietly beat the pants off of Samford, Minnesota, and SMU, but with conference play starting this weekend against Oklahoma, they need to be ready. Their running game has struggled, and Boykin doesn’t look good enough to beat anyone by himself. They still have a lot to prove.

Nebraska (5-0): Would you have believed a month ago that Nebraska would be the last Big Ten(14) undefeated team? That is exactly where the Cornhuskers stand now after channeling their inner Tom Osborne and running roughshod over everyone. Will they be able to do that against Michigan State and Wisconsin? That will decide the season for the Cornhuskers. Now the pressing issue is if an undefeated Big Ten(14) team would get into the playoff over a one loss SEC or Pac 12 team. I tend to think they wouldn’t, especially the way the Big Ten(14) as a whole looked over the first month of the season.

Marshall (4-0): The Herd have played an atrocious non conference schedule, and have no peers in Conference USA. Their toughest game will likely be October 11th when they host Middle Tennessee State. If they run the table, they may be able to butt their way into a “New Years Six” bowl, but I hope not. If East Carolina wins out, they deserved credit for at least scheduling South Carolina and beating Virginia Tech and North Carolina.

BYU (4-0): The Cougars are about to feel the down side of being independent. While most other teams will improve their stock with big wins, the Cougars will not be able to. Most teams are not willing to schedule a good team in the middle of the conference season, so BYU is left playing teams such as Middle Tennessee State, Utah State, and UNLV. While none of these teams are bad, they also are not good enough to prove your worth to the voters and committee members. This is a lose-lose situation for BYU. If they lose a game, they are toast. If they win out, they don’t have any marquee wins. It is to the point where anyone not named Notre Dame needs to be in a conference to stay relevant in the college football landscape.

Notre Dame (4-0): Notre Dame’s schedule got much tougher when they agreed to play ACC foes so they could join the conference in basketball. Not only do the Irish have to travel to Tallahassee and USC, they still have to play Stanford and Louisville. If they manage to escape this schedule undefeated, they absolutely deserve a berth in the playoff.

Oregon (4-0): The Ducks hold the marquee non-conference win of the season with a big win over Michigan State. Is that enough to put them in the playoff even if they lose a conference game? It will likely depend on two things: who they lose to, and if Michigan State wins the Big Ten(14).

Arizona (4-0): Anu Solomon looks like the real deal, but the Arizona defense has not been great. They are giving up 28 points a game, and with the next two at Oregon and vs. USC, they have to play better to stay relevant in the playoff discussion.

UCLA (4-0): After stumbling through Memphis and Texas but still coming out with wins, the Bruins finally showed the explosiveness that everyone thought they had with the thrashing of Arizona State. All three ranked opponents on their remaining schedule (Oregon, Stanford, and USC) are all home games. This could be the year that UCLA breaks out. If they beat Oregon but lose to either Stanford or USC, they might still get in. The thing the Bruins have going for them is that all of the lackluster September games will be forgotten if they win big from here on out.

Texas A&M (5-0): The Aggies looked vulnerable against Arkansas, but does that mean they are ripe to be upset? Most think so. The Aggies have a brutal stretch of seven games in which they play six ranked teams. The only break is a scrimmage against Monroe. If they can manage to make through with only one loss, they should be in the playoff. In fact, I could make a case for any SEC West team with two losses getting in!

Alabama (4-0): The Tide looked a bit sluggish early on, but now that Blake Sims is getting more comfortable in the offense, this is looking like a championship contender again. Bama plays “only” five currently ranked teams, which is low for the SEC West. The unranked teams that they play – Arkansas and Tennessee – are both dangerous teams. It’s not like they get a break, at least not until November 22nd against Western Carolina.

Mississippi State (4-0): They turned some heads with a huge win in Baton Rouge at night. It doesn’t get any easier for the Bulldogs. They have number six and number five in consecutive weeks. And they still have Alabama and the Egg Bowl after that.

Auburn (4-0): The Tigers had the toughest pre-season schedule, with eight ranked teams out of their 12 team schedule. They have only played one of them so far. The next six games will tell us a lot about Auburn’s playoff chances. They get LSU, at Mississippi State, South Carolina, at Mississippi, Texas A&M, and at Georgia. That is still one tough schedule folks, even if the Gamecocks are no longer ranked.

Mississippi (4-0): Possibly the biggest game in program history happens on Saturday when the Rebels host Alabama. It won’t get any easier. They play three of the current top six in the polls, and two more in the top 15. That doesn’t include a road game to Arkansas or welcoming an improving Tennessee team.

That is 17 teams out of 128 that are currently undefeated. Next month I will also inlcude one loss hopefuls because more than likely at least one on of the playoff teams will have a loss.

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