NFL: The Week 5 bell tolls for thee

NFL weeks approach more rapidly thanks to weekly Thursday night matchups. Tail, fade, flip a coin, or maintain your own hot streak and bet the farm, house, condo, vacation rental, or timeshare. Good luck!

Green Bay -7.5: I had Minnesota versus Atlanta as my trap game of the week. Atlanta had extra time to prepare for a rookie quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater and came off a blowout home victory against Tampa Bay. What happens? Bridgewater finds third-year wideout Jarius Wright eight times for 132 yards. Rookie back Jerick McKinnon (yes that McKinnon who beat Florida last season as Georgia Southern QB) carried it 18 times for 135 yards. Matt Asiata had 20 carries for 78 yards and scored three times.

Bridgewater and McKinnon have ankle injuries suffered on Sunday, listing them questionable for Thursday’s game in Green Bay. Aaron Rodger calmed Green Bay’s fears with four touchdowns in a 38-17 road win at Chicago. Eddie Lacy has yet to establish rhythm to maintain a good pass-rush balance for this offense. The Vikings will attempt to run the ball against the NFL’s worst statistical run defense. Green Bay relies on turnovers. Pitting Bridgewater or Christian Ponder in long third down situations is where defensive coordinator Dom Capers’ unit can thrive. The Pack are 15-4-1 hosting the Vikings over the past 20 years.

Houston +6: This is a value pick. The number has already jumped from -4.5 to -6 and -7 at other sportsbooks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is truly conundrum quarterback to bet on simply because of his vast range of inconsistencies. Bill O’Brien’s system has reigned in him fractionally. After throwing no interceptions in the first two games, Fitzpatrick has thrown a combined five in two games. Houston won thanks in part to J.J. Watt’s 80-yard INT return last week. The Texans’ defense has surrendered chunks of yards (367.8 per game), but has stiffened near the goal line allowing just 16.8 points a contest.

Dallas is 3-1 and tied with Philadelphia for the NFC East division lead. Many predicted Dallas’ defense to be historically bad with losses to Sean Lee and a slew of defensive lineman. Two more players in Bruce Carter and Morris Claiborne went down in Sunday’s 38-17 victory over New Orleans. Cowboy believers resuscitated hope and the offense is clicking. Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray, Terrance Williams, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten are scoring nearly 30 points a ballgame. Their offensive line resembles impenetrable Dallas lines of the 1990s led by Nate Newton, Mark Stepnoski, Erik Williams, Kevin Gogan, Mark Tuinei, and later on Larry Allen. Eventually, the Cowboys’ defense can’t get by in patchwork quilt fashion all season. Can they?

Baltimore +3.5: Steve Smith Sr. exacted major revenge on his old team last week. The 35-year-old ran around Carolina’s secondary like the Road Runner on Wile E. Coyote.  Baltimore has won three straight after dropping their home opener to Cincinnati.

Indianapolis is seeking a third home win to climb above the .500 mark in 2014. Safety LaRon Landry tested positive for PEDs (finally) and won’t be eligible until Week 9. Nevertheless, Andrew Luck commands reins of the NFL’s leading passing and scoring team. Who could have foreseen Reggie Wayne surpassing Marvin Harrison’s legacy in Colts’ franchise history. It’s much easier after Harrison’s car wash gun incident.

Minus tight end Dennis Pitta and Ray Rice, Joe Flacco is relying more on vertical threats for an offense averaging 25.8 points per game. Justin Forsett’s number has been called and he’s attempting to give 3-1 Baltimore a coveted running attack. The Ravens’ stubborn defensive identity lingers. They permit a third best 15 points a contest. Getting 3.5 points and strong legged Justin Tucker in a dome, I’ll grab Baltimore with the hook.

Patriots/Bengals pk: This is my Week 5 trap game. Cincinnati is the lone unbeaten team remaining. They had a bye week and may get wideout Marvin Jones back for a Sunday night primetime affair. Even with the departure of coordinator Mike Zimmer, Cincinnati’s defensive unit may simultaneously be unrivaled and overlooked under Paul Guenther’s lead now. Seattle receives media coverage and accolades, but the Bengals have yielded a total of 33 points in three games.

Some analysts have Tom Brady done at 37 with deteriorating skills and no help from silent running backs, terrible pass protection, and a void of deep threats he’s not enjoyed since Randy Moss. Factor in New England’s reputation, Tom Brady’s mystique (I’m biased since we are both Serra High School grads), home field and that’s why the number is low.

Cincy might easily run away and hide against a confounded New England squad. It’s a contrarian move to grab New England at home on a short week. You aren’t exactly getting value at a pick, except betting nuances suggest taking Cincinnati looks too good to be true.

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