NBA Draft Lottery to undergo (largely unnecessary) changes
By Sam Vecenie
Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; NBA commissioner Adam Silver addresses the crowd before the start of the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
The NBA Board of Governors are expected to vote on and ratify changes to the current NBA draft lottery system at a meeting later this month, according to Zach Lowe of Grantland. Here are some more of the details:
League sources: NBA sent memo today indicating 30 teams could vote on slightly revised lottery reform proposal at Bd of Gov later this month
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
Tweaks include decreasing odds just a bit for lotto teams with the best records, sources say. Lottery would draw top-6 picks, up from top-3
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
Vote possibly taking place at B.O.G. later this month shows league has interest in implementing reform for the next lottery/draft.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
Proposal details: four worst teams would have equal 12 percent chance to win No. 1 pick. Worst team could fall no lower than No 7.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
Four teams w/ best record would have, in order, 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2.5% chance at No. 1 pick and better chance than today of moving into top-6
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
I I'd expect this to pass easily if vote happens. Vote might reach 29-1, with only Philly against. Might be a few more "nos," but not many
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
Hard to overstate degree of leaguewide displeasure with Sixers right now. Perhaps not entirely fair -- they're following rules -- but big.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
.@PistonPowered Proposed dds of No. 1 pick for teams 7-10: 8.5%, 7%, 5.5 %, 4%. All have 13%-plus shot at top-3.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
Under current rules, worst team has 25% chance at No. 1. Second-worst: 19.9%. Third-worst: 15.6%. Proposal would give 4 worst equal 12% odds
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
And to be clear: Any change approved in October (or later in season) could -- and probably would -- go into effect for this draft lottery
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) October 3, 2014
I’m not a huge fan of the systemic changes, mainly revolving around the idea of drawing for the top six teams as opposed to only the top three. The worst team in the NBA now has the chance to drop from the first pick all the way down to the seventh pick, which is a tremendous decline in the value of the pick. It’s going to make team building much MORE reliant on the draw of lottery balls, which isn’t fun for people who enjoy following and covering the machinations of roster building.
However, the much larger problem here is that, as Lowe went on to say later, I don’t think this particularly changes anything for the teams at the bottom of the league. Obviously, it’s going to put a larger emphasis on drafting well regardless of where you end up, but I don’t think this means that bad teams will suddenly stop tanking.
The best chance for these teams to return to relevance is still getting a top pick and drafting a superstar. In a league where there are only five players on the court at the same time, the amount of impact that one single player can make will always be much greater than that of the NFL or MLB. Because of that — and the way the CBA is structured — the best chance to get these players and secure them long-term is through the draft, no matter if the chance that they get the top pick is 25 percent or 12 percent. The board of governors are changing the rules here without any indication that there will be an impact on the problem they believe the 76ers have created.
And that gets to a larger problem. It seems the league is intent upon changing the draft lottery system because of what Sam Hinkie is doing with the 76ers, which seems both rather unfair and misguided. While the 76ers roster right now is where good basketball goes to die, this is something that is entirely within their rights to do based on the rules.
To change the rules midstream is an unfair decision given that the offseason has already ended. Would this have affected the way general manager Sam Hinkie operated had he known that this was going to go into effect for the 2015 draft? Like I said earlier, I don’t think that it does, but it still leaves Hinkie with no recourse to adjust his plans for roster building, and that seems to be shortsighted.
The NBA needs to adopt a set of rules and stick to them. There will always be a team that tries to circumvent the rules and find what they believe to be the best strategy to compete.