Quarterbacks values that I like:
Sep 25, 2014; Landover, MD, USA; New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (10) attempts a pass against the Washington Redskins during the first half at FedEx Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Eli Manning v. Atlanta ($7,300) – Eli will likely be a popular QB choice in FanDuel this week with the combination of how he’s been playing and the matchup. In Eli’s last two games, he has 7 touchdowns to just one interception, and his interception should have been a touchdown if Rueben Randle doesn’t drop it into the defenders hands. There is a risk with Eli as the Giants could lean on their running game, but Eli should be a safe,cheap play in FanDuel this week.
Colin Kaepernick v. Kansas City ($7,800) – It’s the classic case where a team comes off a monster win and then struggles to put up similar or even close to similar numbers that they did in the previous week. The Chiefs beat the Patriots 41-7 on Monday Night Football and everyone is falling into the trap that they have a lock down defense now. They don’t. Colin Kaepernick should be able to put up solid numbers like he did last week at home against Philadelphia. Not only that, this is the first time that Alex Smith will be back in San Francisco, and the 49ers could look to feature the offense around Kaepernick to kind of prove that they made the right choice in picking Colin over Alex.
Quarterbacks I wouldn’t touch even if you paid for my team:
Tom Brady v. Cincinnati ($7,900)- I believe Brady is going to bounce back at some point this season, but I can’t see it in this matchup because I’m not sure what receivers are going to be playing. Tom Brady is averaging 9.8 Fantasy Points per game this season, which although is not completely his fault, states that he shouldn’t be counted on this week. Currently the Patriots don’t have a deep threat that is active and their offense line can’t get Brady time to throw. Although everyone is slightly overreacting, I can’t trust Brady this week.
Matt Ryan at New York Giants ($8,500) – Matt Ryan is clearly not the same guy on the road that he is at home. Ryan will be playing on the road against the Giants this week, and this Giants defense is feeling confident after picking off Kirk Cousins four times on Thursday Night Football. At home this year Matt Ryan has a 6:0 Touchdown-to-Interception ratio, while on the road that ratio has decreased significantly, as it’s only 4:5. In standard scoring leagues (4 points per passing touchdown), Matt Ryan has yet to have a 20-point game on the road.
Expensive but worth it:
Philip Rivers ($8,900); Russell Wilson ($8,300); Peyton Manning ($9,800)
Running Backs values that I like:
Sep 21, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Isaiah Crowell (34) runs for a touchdown past Baltimore Ravens outside linebacker Courtney Upshaw (91) during the third quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Ravens won 23-21. Mandatory Credit: Ron Schwane-USA TODAY Sports
Rashad Jennings v. Atlanta ($7,200) – If you can’t tell, I’m buying a lot of Giants this week. Atlanta’s run defense has been so terrifying that they gave up three rushing touchdowns to Matt Asiata and they also gave up one to Teddy Bridgewater. The Falcons have allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to running backs in three of their four games, and in two of the three games they allowed three touchdowns twice. Jennings is a safe bet.
Le’Veon Bell at Jacksonville ($8,600) – I don’t love Roethlisberger, but this is kind of the reason why. Le’Veon Bell has been a fantasy stud this season, yet only has one rushing touchdown. The Steelers will try to run all over Jacksonville and won’t really attempt to throw the football enough to make Roethlisberger a successful fantasy play.
LeSean McCoy v. St. Louis ($8,300) – I realize that we are worried, but should we be? I know McCoy hasn’t topped 50 yards in back to back games, however that’s a big reason I believe the Eagles try to get their running game going. The Rams have had the most rushing attempts against them in terms of gameflow, meaning that the coordinators that have played them love running with the fronts that they are getting from the Rams. Look for McCoy to explode this week.
Isaiah Crowell at Tennessee ($5,400) – The Titans defense has been struggling against the run this season, however Ben Tate is penciled in as the starting running back this week. Ben Tate did say that he should be listed as questionable because he doesn’t know how his knee would react on Saturday. If his knee swells up, Crowell with be the go-to guy for the Browns offense. Although even if Tate is out, Crowell is a sneaky play with his three touchdowns heading up against the Titans, who have allowed five rushing touchdowns to running backs, which is the second most in the NFL.
Running Backs that I wouldn’t touch even if you paid for my team:
Arian Foster at Dallas ($7,800) – Arian Foster struggled against the Buffalo defense, rushing eight times for a whole six yards. Fantasy owners are going to have a tough time trusting Arian Foster this week after he ruined their team’s last game, meaning he has likely found his way to the bench anyways.
Ben Tate at Tennessee ($6,200) – Call me crazy, but I’m not a fan of a running back who doesn’t quite know how his knee will react after a practice right before the game he is supposed to start. I also don’t think Tate is getting his goal line gig back, which means he would have to rush for at least 100 yards to have value this week, and potentially for rest of season.
Knile Davis at San Francisco ($7,200) – Watching the Patriots/Chiefs last week, a lot of people are trusting Knile Davis to get the touches that he saw last week, but I wouldn’t be trusting that because Jamaal Charles is back. I think it could be a very effective way to help limit Charles, but even if he does play, this 49ers defense is great up front as they give up the second least fantasy points to opposing running backs. I’m not trusting Knile Davis this week.
Running Backs: Expensive but worth it:
Giovani Bernard ($8,800); DeMarco Murray ($9,000); Marshawn Lynch ($9,100)
Sep 28, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) runs after making a third quarter catch against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Qualcomm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Wide Receiver values that I like:
Sammy Watkins at Detroit ($6,600) – Watkins originally thought that he would be a Lion before the Bills made a trade in order to acquire him. This week, we get Watkins in a dome in a situation where the coaches switched to Kyle Orton strictly because they were struggling to get the ball to Sammy Watkins. My bold prediction is that Watkins receives 15+ targets this week and catches two scores for 100+ yards.
Keenan Allen v. New York Jets ($7,000) – Allen finally broke out, but it was against the Jaguars and one has to wonder if he can keep it up. However, the Jets defense has been embarrassing this season, and the Chargers will look to attack this Jets secondary. I’m sure that after Allen’s 10 catches last week, that Rivers will be looking his way.
Torrey Smith at Indianapolis ($5,300) – Perhaps I’m nuts, but I have a gut call on Torrey Smith this week. A stat was reported this week that said that Torrey Smith leads the NFL in pass interference penalties drawn. It’s only a matter of time, and I feel like this is the week that Smith can burn greedy corner Greg Toler in coverage this week as Vonate Davis will be attempting to lock down Steve Smith. I’m rolling the dice with Smith this week with his value.
Wide Receivers that I wouldn’t touch even if you paid for my team:
Calvin Johnson v. Buffalo ($8,900) – This is the only time I’ve wrote Calvin Johnson as a guy to avoid, but in daily or weekly leagues you can’t trust Calvin Johnson this week. He is a great receiver, but there is no doubt that his ankle is really bothering him, holding him to just two catches for 12 yards on Sunday. Besides Calvin’s big game against the Giants, he’s only been average this season. He hasn’t been the Calvin Johnson that we expected coming into the season.
DeSean Jackson v. Seattle ($6,900) – It’s not even really because they are facing Seattle because I actually trust Pierre Garcon this week a little, but I don’t like Jackson this week. Seattle’s defense doesn’t usually give up big plays, which means starting him would be a total shot in the dark. After Jackson’s pathetic performance on Thursday Night Football last week, I’m sure that fantasy owners are already shying away from DeSean Jackson this week.
Larry Fitzgerald at Denver ($6,400) – Operation number one for the Broncos defense? Keep the ball away from Larry Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald has not been the dominating force that some were hoping him to be heading into the season. It’s clearly because the Cardinals objective is to just make the open throw and not try to force anything and I wouldn’t expect them to force anything with Drew Stanton in at quarterback.
Expensive but worth it:
Antonio Brown ($9,000); Dez Bryant ($8,900); Julio Jones ($8,800); Brandon Marshall ($8,100)
Sep 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) catches a pass as New England Patriots cornerback Darrelle Revis (24) attempts the tackle during the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports
Tight ends values that I like:
Heath Miller at Jacksonville ($5,900) – I’ve never been a huge Heath Miller fan, but finally the line looks better and the Steelers can trust letting Miller go out for some routes. Miller scored a touchdown last week against Tampa Bay and he has a great matchup against Jacksonville this week.
Eric Ebron v. Buffalo ($5,200)- This is a complete gut call. With Calvin Johnson listed as questionable, I’d bet that the Lions are going to be looking at throwing the ball elsewhere. With Christian Fauria still out, it looks like Ebron could potentially be the guy that Stafford is looking for in the endzone, especially with Joique Bell on the sidelines. This Lions team will be passing when they get in close.
Travis Kelce ($5,300)- The next Rob Gronkowski! I know, I know, calm down. However, he does look like he’s the next big thing at tight end and he will certaintly be a problem for San Francisco’s defense this week. He’s a cheap, and safe, play.
Tight ends that I wouldn’t touch even if you paid for my team:
Jordan Cameron at Tennessee ($6,000)- I don’t like Jordan Cameron in this offense, and trust me he misses Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski’s tight end heavy offense. Cameron was a product of that system until I see otherwise from him this season. He’s not even his team’s number one option as that right belongs to Andrew Hawkins.
Vernon Davis v. Kansas City ($6,000)- I would expect Davis to miss this game, and even if he plays, I don’t want to start a doubtful player in weekly fantasy sports because he is likely hurting really bad. It’s too much of a risk when you have money on the line.
Expensive but worth it:
Julius Thomas ($8,000); Jimmy Graham ($7,900); Rob Gronkowski ($7,600); Martellus Bennett ($7,300)
Sep 21, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Browns cornerback Joe Haden (23) at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Defense’s values that I like:
Browns at Tennessee ($4,800)- Head coach Mike Pettine is a defensive guy, and you better believe that he spent this bye week working with his secondary that has been struggling. I expect this defense to come out hungry and ready to put up big fantasy points for your fantasy team this week.
Giants v. Atlanta ($5,100)- A lot of people are going to look at the matchup and pass because of Atlanta’s high powered offense, but I’ll be the first to tell you that they aren’t the same away from home. If you missed it last week, this Giants defense picked off Kirk Cousins four times on Thursday Night Football. Now they get a beat up Falcons offense against their dominating defensive line and eager secondary. This could be a rough go for Matt Ryan.
Defense’s values I don’t like:
Pittsburgh at Jacksonville ($5,400)- Steelers have lost some of their key playmakers and even against the Jaguars they shouldn’t be trusted.
Patriots v. Cincinnati ($5,300)- I expect Cincinnati to run all over them and put some points up on the Patriots. They are going to have to match if they want to win.
Expensive but worth it:
Seattle ($5,500); Bengals ($5,300)
Kicker’s values that I like:
Alex Henery ($4,800); Robbie Gould ($4,600)
Kicker value I don’t:
Stephen Gostkowski ($5,400)
Expensive but worth it:
Justin Tucker ($5,300); Steven Hauschka ($5,200)