New England Patriots following old blueprint for Super Bowl success
Are the NFL‘s New England Patriots following an old blueprint for Super Bowl success?
The New England Patriots lost their first game of the season. The last two times they did that, they won Super Bowls. The Patriots (3-2) look an awful lot like the 2011 New York Giants and 2010 Green Bay Packers that started their seasons 3-2. Those two teams went on to win Super Bowls.
But correlation doesn’t indicate causation. Plenty of volatile 3-2 teams have gone on to have terrible seasons. Plenty of non-Patriots teams have lost the first game of the season and missed the playoffs. So these parallels are Patriots’ fans grasping at straws, right? Because saying that the Patriots look like the Championship Giants and Packers teams is just like saying they are like the 2013 Detroit Lions, who were 3-2, but went on to have the 10th pick in the NFL Draft.
A slow start is a slow start — it doesn’t have to mean the Patriots are Super Bowl contender. But, perhaps, it’s a sign that Belichick is trying something different. In the past, his teams have always peaked early and dominated all season long. What if he was taking a risk on a team that would start out with adversity, only to put it all together and peak for the end of the season? Because winning the regular season doesn’t get you much — ask Peyton Manning. It’s winning playoff games that matters in the NFL, and eventually Super Bowls — again, ask Peyton Manning.
It’s been a wild two weeks for the Patriots. After the Chiefs trounced New England, everyone said this was the end of an era for Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. After the Patriots dominated the Cincinnati Bengals, everyone was caught with their foot in their mouth. The Patriots are a hard team for an analyst to make sense of, which is why I like the comparison to these two Championship teams.
What seems to tie them all together is their volatility. That volatility stems from a mixed bag of talent. The potential difference from the Patriots and 2011 Giants and 2010 Packers is that the Championship teams corrected their errors and improved their young talent. The Giants had a pass rush that could cover some of the other blemishes on that defense. The Packers had a passing offense that could cover some of the blemishes on that offense.
Let’s break the Patriots down for what they are: good, bad, ugly and elite. And, perhaps, there’s enough strength to cover up the Patriots’ blemishes.
The Good: Defense
The Patriots defense has been good, not great. They held the Bengals within 17 points during a blowout, where the Patriots have a propensity to let up point — that’s pretty good. They’ve let up no more than 20 points in a game. Belichick loves a defense that generates takeaways, and they can do that, too. They have recovered five of their seven forced fumbles and intercepted six balls. Players like Brandon Browner, Logan Ryan and Duron Harmon will be essential in making this pass defense outstanding. The second cornerback and safety spots are still tenuous.
The pass defense is the third best in the league in pass yards allowed per game, but that’s mostly because they’ve faced Ryan Tannehill, Matt Cassel, Derek Carr and Andy Dalton. Aside from Cincinnati, those offense are not by any means elite. Even Cincinnati doesn’t look like the Denver Broncos. The rush defense is where the Patriots need to make up ground.
Teams that win championships can run the ball, and thus, they must also be able to defend the run. The Patriots rank 17th in the league in rush yards allowed per game. The development of Dont’a Hightower and emergence of first round draft pick Dominique Easley could aid the gashed run defense. Easley, who was slapped with injury prone, will be worth keeping an eye on from an injury perspective. Chandler Jones will also have to continue to be a monster.
The Bad: Pass-Catchers
This unit has been bad since 2007, hasn’t it? It seems the Patriots have a need for wide receivers every offseason, which has meant they’ve also had a need for wide receivers every season. Julian Edelman is a legitimate No. 1 receiver. He may not look the part, but he catches 100 balls a year and consistently moves the chains. The only problem is that if a guy like Edelman is the No. 1 — not, say, Calvin Johnson or Vincent Jackson — the the No. 2 receiver must be big bodied and able to stretch the field. Or so one would think. But the Patriots haven’t had one of those since Randy Moss. The hope was that Aaron Dobson or Kenbrell Thompkins might be one of those guys. That hasn’t happened. Thompkins was released early October and Dobson’s on-field presence has been scarce. He was inactive for the Raiders and Chiefs and played only 11 snaps in the game against the Bengals. Brandon LaFell has struggled to make an impact despite getting a large percentage of the offensive snaps.
Tim Wright supposedly had his breakout game, but only received 19 snaps, which means it was a fluke or with added snaps Wright could be incredibly dangerous. Rob Gronkowski looks like he’s coming to speed. And the Patriots offense appeared to shift towards two-tight end sets again. If we know anything about the offense, however, it’s that they’ll switch it up and go back to their receivers next week. Still, this seems to be a position group with increasing potential. But it’s dependent on…
The Ugly: Offensive line
The Patriots’ line was a gaping wound against the Kansas City Chiefs. The pass blocking was a joke, which made the Chiefs’ pass rush look invincible. During that game, four of the Patriots’ five starters got benched. The fifth, Dan Connoly was moved from center to left guard. All hell seemed to be breaking loose. Then, it was calm against the Bengals.
Brady didn’t panic under pressure, and the offensive line limited the pass rush. Against the Chiefs, the line let up three sacks, two quarterback hits, two fumbles and one fumble lost. Against the Bengals, the line let up one sack and one quarterback hit. It made a world of difference for the offense. The Bengals rush isn’t as elite as the Chiefs, but the Pats were much improved in week five. If the Patriots want to improve to Super Bowl heights, then these offensive linemen must establish consistency — rookie center Brian Stork and right tackle Nate Solder especially.
The Elite: Tom Brady, Bill Belichick
The doubters take every opportunity to knock on these two, but they are the undeniable, stabilizing force in the franchise. They don’t always agree, but they’re generally better for it. Both are hard-headed and stubborn. Both compromise with each other. Above all, they are Super Bowl winners — that’s what they do. Yet, it’s been a while, which makes them even hungrier.
The question at hand remains. Can the Patriots take what they’ve got (the good, bad, ugly and elite) and turn it into a Championship team? The Giants and Packers also had good, bad, ugly and elite components to their team. It’s about corralling kittens — yes, I just called football players kittens — and peaking for the Playoffs. They started with the same ingredients, and they finished with a Super Bowl.
The Patriots need their offensive line to develop into a reliable wall against elite pass rushers like the Chiefs. Their wide receivers and tight ends need to create more space and catch more of the balls thrown to them. And their defense needs to defend the run better. With a few other adjustments, the Patriots have the makings of a Super Bowl team. Don’t bet your pocketbooks on it, but it’s there’s still a real possibility the Lombardi goes to New England this year.
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