NFL Picks: Panthers, Broncos, Week 6 locks

Which NFL Week 6 games are locks sure to increase your bankroll?

Week 6 features a couple of overwhelming road favorites in San Diego and Denver. They appear to be this week’s locks. It’s very challenging to resist temptation. The good news is if you take Denver and lose, San Diego’s afternoon tilt presents a double-down angle.

Without further ado, here are Week 6 picks. Tail, fade, flip a coin, or ride your own hot streak and use half your life savings. Good luck!

Houston +3: Thursday night games can be a real coin flip and wind up posting some lopsided outcomes. Indianapolis and Houston may play a rare close one Thursday. Both teams are 3-2 so it’s a division game for the rights to claim first place in the AFC South. The Colts have a three-game win streak after losing their first two weeks. Andrew Luck threw a couple of interceptions last week in a 20-13 home victory over Baltimore.

Oct 5, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Houston Texans running back Arian Foster (23) celebrates his third quarter touchdown with teammates against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /

Indy won both games in 2013 by 25-3 and 27-24 scores. The Texans lead all NFL teams with 12 forced turnovers. They have surrendered a great deal of yardage, but curtailed a Dallas offense in a 20-17 overtime loss. Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t hold a candle to Luck, but he’s been respectable versus Indy before. Protecting the ball is always a priority when it comes to the Harvard product. I like getting the field goal and home team on a short week.

Carolina -7: A.J. Green’s status for Sunday is encapsulated with doubt. Green aggravated his turf toe injury in practice and was carted off. Green alone will hardly determine this outcome, but it weakens Andy Dalton’s deep threat capabilities. The Bengals were abused in New England on primetime, while Carolina came back for 31-24 home triumph against Chicago.

Carolina and Cincinnati may be absent multiple offensive players, which plays into the hands of two good defenses. Cam Newton’s rib injury is not as pressing a concern as the aches and pains of running backs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Counting on Darrin Reaves, Fozzy Whittaker, and Chris Ogbonnaya to establish a running game isn’t a desired model. Stewart has been cleared to practice this week, foreshadowing a return. Some books had it at 7.5, which further behooves Panther investors.

Denver -8: As little confidence as bettors have in the Raiders, it could even be worse in America’s largest city. A large part of it spans from Geno Smith’s failures at the quarterback position. The New York Jets are 1-4, thanks to a home victory over those very Raiders, but a 31-0 whitewashing resulted in Smith being pulled for Michael Vick. Rex Ryan’s job security is on the brink. He continues to vouch for Smith who now has 16 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in his young career.

Montee Ball’s groin strain puts a further damper on a Denver running game averaging 79.5 yards per game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Having one of the most complete quarterbacks in the sport’s history takes pressure off the ground attack. As long as Peyton Manning remains upright, the 3-1 Broncos possess the fourth-highest scoring offense (29 ppg) and matchup dilemmas for secondaries. This could be a pick-your-number kind of spread. It may elevate to 10 points by Sunday. Is it considered value if you back Geno Smith over Peyton Manning? Only if you endorse going against popular consensus.

Sep 28, 2014; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers cornerback Brandon Flowers (26) celebrates on the field against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the third quarter at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers won 33-14. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports /

San Diego -7: There are two mirage games in Week 6. Call me paranoid (and I certifiably am in many instances), but how are two of the best AFC teams favored by a mere touchdown or so on the road versus two of the worst teams in the league? Besides delusional and blindly loyal Raiders and Jets fans, only pure contrarians are grabbing the home points with these deplorable teams.

Tony Sparano has the Oakland Raiders shoveling ditches and burying footballs to omit a 0-4 beginning to their 2014 season. Dennis Allen was fired after a disastrous game in foggy London town. The well-traveled Sparano was tagged interim head coach after being hired as assistant head coach and offensive line coach in 2013. David Carr is probable as he recovers from ankle and knee sprains using a bye week to improve his status.

The 4-1 Chargers are rolling with four straight wins. They are down to a fourth-string center and brought Ronnie Brown in because all their running backs are out. Philip Rivers is playing some of his best football in several years, but the Chargers also have the best scoring defense in the NFL at 12.6 ppg. San Diego is 16-6 against the spread at Oakland since 1992. Airtight lock right?

My favorite scene in Dirty Work, with Chevy Chase as Dr. Farthing.

Dr. Farthing: I know there’s really nobody to blame for this but myself, well, I don’t know, maybe the Buffalo Bills, the Boston Red Sox, or Mr. T or, or the Jets…

Mitch: Wait a minute, Mr T.? Are you telling me that you bet on the fight in Rocky III, and that you bet against Rocky?

Dr. Farthing: Hindsight is twenty-twenty, my friend.

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