Predicting the final records of each NBA team

Miami Heat

Let the hate rain down.

I believe that the Miami Heat will not only take the requisite step back that comes with losing LeBron James, but more than that, I think that the Heat will be a fringe playoff contender, even in the weak Eastern Conference.

On paper, the Heat should be just fine. Chris Bosh remains a top-15 player in the NBA, the decline of Dwayne Wade has been vastly exaggerated after his NBA Finals performance, and the acquisition of Luol Deng provides them with a legitimate third option. However, there are a few hiccups here.

First, Bosh is certainly tremendous, but his style of play in Miami has greatly benefited by the presence of LeBron, and it will be very interesting to see how he reacts to suddenly being the “number one” option for the first time since he left Toronto. Secondly, I am a long-time defender of Dwyane Wade, but after year in which he played 54 regular season games and still managed to break down in the playoffs, why is there any level of certainty about what Miami can expect? I firmly believe that the now 32-year-old Wade will be extremely effective when he plays (19 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists per game last season in limited minutes), but it remains to be seen if he can shoulder a full workload over 82 games.

Then, there is Deng and the rest of the “supporting cast”, and while the former Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers forward has had a tremendous career, there are a ton of miles on his odometer, thanks to Tom Thibodeau’s grueling style of coaching. Last season, Luol Deng was merely a league-average player according to PER (15.22) and his long-distance shooting woes (30.2% last season, 32.9% career mark from 3) do not necessarily foster belief that he will age gracefully. Year one of Deng’s contract likely isn’t the worry, but tempering expectations would be wise.

In addition to the clear downgrade among the “big three”, Miami is set to lose a ton of production from role players. Ray Allen and Shane Battier are both gone, and while the Heat did acquire Danny Granger to replace some of that, his injury status is always a question. The addition of Josh McRoberts should help the Heat to temper the blow in the frontcourt, but if we are objectively evaluating this roster in 2014, it is tough for me to state that they are a no-doubt playoff group with any confidence.

There is something to be said for organizational stability and coaching (Erik Spoelstra is an elite coach), but the “benefit of the doubt” only extends so far, and Miami looks like a .500 team to me.

Projected Record: 41-41, 7th in East