No position in MLB is harder to predict on a year-to-year basis than relief pitching, but occasionally there are warning signs, and these five MLB relievers all show red flags that they might not be as reliable in 2015.
“Bullpens are fickle in nature” and “relievers fall from trees” were two sayings former Cleveland Indians general manager John Hart (now interim GM of the Atlanta Braves), was found of paraphrasing, particularly when explaining why a pitcher was in the bullpen or why Cleveland wasn’t signing too many relievers to long-term extensions in the 1990’s.
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Hart wasn’t incorrect — performance of MLB relievers is notoriously hard to predict. Of course, there are stalwarts, such as Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel, who seem to be reliable year-in, year-out. And yes, we can usually predict which relievers will stack up the saves, although that’s really more due to the silly nature of the save stat itself, as it rewards relievers on good teams in close games.
But occasionally, there are tells that a reliever could be in for a rough year. The tells aren’t always true; any writer who tells you they can predict what an MLB bullpen will do in the before the season is usually just fishing for clicks. I certainly can’t predict MLB reliever performance, but I can show you some red flags that I see in five relievers. These red flags might end up being simply red herrings, but here are five MLB relievers who could be in for a lost year in 2015: