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NFL: Week 7 Lines Are Tightening Up

By Matthew Lottice

Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 21, 2013; Las Vegas, NV, USA; General view of the Welcome to Fabulous Las Vegas sign on Las Vegas Blvd. before the Las Vegas Bowl between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Southern California Trojans. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports /
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Which of the NFL Week 7 lines provide the best opportunity?

A late pick six for Aqib Talib gave the Broncos a backdoor cover. An interception by Jason Verrett concluded a road win for the Chargers, but a cover for the Raiders. With several weeks in the books, oddsmakers become keen with tight lines across the board.

Tail, fade, toss a coin, or ride your own hot streak. Step out on a game with confidence and bet it like it’s already been played. Or don’t. Either way, good luck!

New England -9.5: There’s an 80% chance of rainfall for Thursday night’s matchup at Gillette Stadium. It could get messy literally and figuratively in Foxboro. The Patriots have looked good in two straight games. They lost Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley for the season in a 37-22 road win in Buffalo.

Geno Smith played the entire game in Sunday’s 31-17 loss. He threw his seventh interception in the closing seconds to make the score academic except for gamblers. Cornerback Dee Milliner tore an Achilles to abruptly end his season after briefly playing in three games. He’s played in 16 of 32 possible games thus far in his NFL career and leaves New York’s secondary vulnerable again.

Oct 12, 2014; Orchard Park, NY, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Buffalo Bills during the 2nd half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Patriots beat the Bills 37-22. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 12, 2014; Orchard Park, NY, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Buffalo Bills during the 2nd half at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Patriots beat the Bills 37-22. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports /

The disabled list for both teams resembles that of a list of casualties from battle. Tom Brady has always been on it for years usually with a shoulder ailment. His ankle is the nuisance this season. Weather and turnovers may be the Jets’ saving grace to keep this one tight.

Kansas City +5: Andy Reid and company rested up over the bye week following a tough 22-17 road loss to the 49ers.

San Diego’s charmed status with running backs continues even with Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead out indefinitely. Donald Brown suffered a concussion so it was Brandon Oliver’s turn to run 26 times for 101 yards and a game winning touchdown. It was the 23-year-old’s fourth NFL game. The undrafted rookie was used heavily against Oakland in accordance with their vaunted passing offense.

The Chargers narrowly escaped an upset in Oakland, but the Chiefs should give them another run for their money in a division game. Kansas City is 2-3 and doesn’t want to lose any more ground in a division with two one-loss teams. Coming off a bye, the Chiefs will craft a precise gameplan to at least keep this within the number.

Jacksonville +6: The Cleveland Browns are 3-2 and head into Jacksonville on the heels of a resounding 31-10 home triumph Pittsburgh. Brian Hoyer’s play hasn’t declined following a season-ending knee injury last year. Johnny Manziel is a mere afterthought with Hoyer in Pro Bowl form. Head coach Mike Pettine deserves credit for improving a team inherited from Pat Shurmur. How much credit and respect? Enough to be six point road favorites.

Jacksonville and Oakland are in search of their first win in 2014. Quality of play and competitiveness have increased when Gus Bradley handed keys over to Blake Bortles at halftime in a 44-17 loss. to Indianapolis. Defense has been rigid the last couple weeks, yielding a total of 26 points combined.

Blake Bortles
Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports /

The Browns victory last week didn’t come without personnel losses. Center Alex Mack suffered a broken fibula, terminating his 2014 campaign. Four defensive lineman sustained injuries and two are out indefinitely. It’s never easy backing poor teams, but the NFL’s doormats cover spreads and spring upsets weekly. The Jags have played better of late. They can keep this close with an inflated line at home.

Traps of the week: Seattle and Arizona are my trap games of Week 7. I refuse to heartily endorse St. Louis or Oakland at this point. If you interrogated me enough under a burning heat lamp, I’d eventually acquiesce to picking St. Louis receiving a touchdown at home.

Bruce Arians has quietly credited his qualifications as an NFL head coach. Arizona is 4-1 and done it with a myriad of injuries, most notably to their quarterback position. Carson Palmer’s bothersome nerve in his throwing shoulder improved enough for him to start last week. Palmer recovered in timely fashion to play against a franchise he spent two ignominious years at once he whined loud enough to be traded from Cincinnati. Tony Sparano revived a Raiders team which appeared comatose under Dennis Allen. It’s a shorter line for the road team in Oakland than San Diego’s -7 last Sunday.

The Seahawks embark on another long road trip in the span of three weeks. They will be vitriolic due to being defeated by the Cowboys. For all their boisterous and talented playmakers, the Super Bowl champions looked fatigued and beaten up. It’s practically impossible to repeat in today’s NFL, but I wouldn’t discount Seattle’s chances entirely. This roster simply isn’t as healthy or deep as in 2013. The Rams collapsed on Monday night with a 14-0 lead on the 49ers. Never underestimate a Jeff Fisher team. Even an undermanned one playing on a brief week.

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