Sep 29, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) throws a pass against the New England Patriots in the second half at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City won 41-14. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
The greatest Quarterback value: (The greatest values all have risk, but they are cheap and I think they have a shot to have a monster game).
Alex Smith at SD ($7,100) – Andy Reid is fantastic coming off a bye in his career, and the Chiefs will be coming off their bye this week against the Chargers in San Diego. Since 1999, when Reid took over as head coach for the Eagles, Reid’s quarterbacks have only been averaging 16.56 Fantasy Points a game coming off a bye week. However, if you factor in that the league has changed to a passing league you would realize that since 2008, Reid’s quarterbacks are averaging 22.1 Fantasy Points a game coming off the bye week.
Last year, Alex Smith was able to have some similar success against the San Diego defense, putting up 22.4 fantasy points in their last meeting. Although Smith is only averaging 14 fantasy points a game this season, he’s been good in his two of his last three. In his last three games, Alex Smith has score at least 18 fantasy points in two of them. I’m buying into Alex Smith this week.
Good Quarterbacks Values:
Carson Palmer at OAK ($7,300) – Carson Palmer is back from injury and although he isn’t 100%, he does get to face off against his former team. I don’t think that Palmer holds any grudges about his departure from Oakland, but I do like the matchup. The Raiders started off the year with three straight games of holding opposing quarterbacks under 15 fantasy points, but have now given up back to back 20 point games. In Palmer’s two starts this season, he’s averaging 19 fantasy points a game.
Joe Flacco v. ATL ($7,700) – We’ve already witnessed Joe Flacco’s best outing of the season. If you believe that you are getting another five touchdown first half from Joe Flacco, then you’re crazy. However, Flacco’s eight touchdowns in the last three weeks is hard to deny. Plus on top of that, he is in another good matchup this week. Over the last three weeks, Flacco is averaging 21 fantasy points a game.
Cam Newton at GB ($8,400) – Cam is back! Well, maybe. According to the Charlotte Observer, Panthers offensive coordinator Mike Shula said “I feel like I ran him too much, and yet I didn’t run him enough”. We know that Cam Newton’s value revolves around his ability to run the football and on Sunday he ran the football. Although I wouldn’t expect 33 fantasy points again, I’d definitely expect a good game from Cam Newton this week.
Bad Quarterbacks Values:
Drew Brees at DET ($9,100) – Drew Brees has yet to have a 20 point fantasy game yet this season and it won’t come here against the Lions. It seems that Brees will be without his star tight end, Jimmy Graham, and the Lions have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. The Lions are currently only allowing 9.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Even in a domed road game, Drew Brees is still not the same player on the road that he is at home.
Matt Ryan at BAL ($8,500) – Like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan has struggled away from home as of late. There were two favorable road match ups at the beginning of the season, which has caused Ryan to still be usable on the road but it’s clear he isn’t the same player. The Falcons head on the road to play Baltimore, who have managed to allow the 10th fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Plus, only one quarterback was able to reach 20 fantasy points against the Ravens this season, and although Andrew Luck managed to do so, it was just barely. In his three road games so far this season, Matt Ryan is currently only averaging 14 fantasy points a game.
Matthew Stafford v. NO ($8,300) – It’s clear that Matthew Stafford misses Calvin Johnson, but that doesn’t describe the entire story for his season so far. The Lions offensive line is clearly struggling as of late, and Stafford is being forced to get rid of the football too quickly, which is causing him to force a lot of bad throws. Last week, looking at the film, you see Golden Tate drop three catchable passes on key downs. Who knows what happens if he catches them, but it’s clear that without Calvin Johnson, Matthew Stafford’s fantasy value is questionable.
Big gamble, good matchup, could pay off:
Brian Hoyer at JAC ($6,400) – Cleveland runs the football nearly every chance they can. Is Hoyer executing the offense? Yes, and he is currently doing so effectively. However, his job is to hand the ball off to the running back. Hoyer has managed just one touchdown pass in four of his last five games, and although it’s a great matchup, he’s tough to trust.
Oct 5, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide running back Justin Forsett (29) reacts to scoring a touchdown against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indianapolis defeats Baltimore 28-13. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
The Greatest Running Back values:(The greatest values all have risk, but they are cheap and I think they have a shot to have a monster game).
Justin Forsett v. ATL ($6,200) – Atlanta has been historically bad against the run so far this season and it shouldn’t stop this week. The Atlanta defense is on pace to allow 32 rushing this year, and with their current average of allowing two rushing touchdowns a game, I’m going to bet on Forsett being a great play this week. I’m all in on him because of his value and I think he’s on one of my teams.
Isaiah Crowell at JAC ($5,300) – Huge risk, but the reward has the potential to pay off big. If you still are in the group that wants to believe that Terrance West is the backup and that Crowell is the third string than you must have missed the fact that West was inactive last week. I expect the Browns to run all over the Jaguars on Sunday, and if they do, Crowell is going to be involved around the goal line. Even though Terrance West expects to be active this week, I can’t turn my back on that price for this pay off.
Good Running Backs Values:
Lamar Miller at CHI ($7,200) – Knowshon Moreno is out for the season with a torn ACL and now the Miami backfield’s fate rest in the hands of Lamar Miller. In the previous weeks, Lamar Miller has been over double digit fantasy points every week since Moreno’s Week 2 absence. Since Moreno went down with his elbow injury in Week 2, Miller has managed to score three touchdowns. It amazing to think that Lamar Miller has only managed to play in 58% of the Dolphins offensive snaps this season, and with the Moreno injury, he should see an increase in his work load.
Alfred Morris v. TEN ($7,200) – Morris is a nice buy low candidate and a nice FanDuel player this week. Morris is facing off against the Titans who are tied for giving up the third most touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. With the way Kirk Cousins has played, look for the Redskins to just hand it off 25 times and get Alfred Morris going against this bad run defense.
Ben Tate at JAC ($7,300) – As long as he’s healthy, he is going to be fine. He is in a committee, that could be called a three headed monster, but he is the head of that monster, meaning that we can trust him. With his 25 carries last week, Tate managed to rush for 78 yards and two touchdowns, and he gets a running back friendly matchup against Jacksonville. Jacksonville has currently allowed 5 touchdowns to opposing running backs this season, which is tied for 4th most in the NFL. The Browns are currently a run heavy football team, running the football on 52.3% of their offensive plays.
Bad Running Back Values:
C.J. Spiller v. MIN ($6,700) – C.J. Spiller’s name has been popping up in trade rumors, and I hope he does get traded because the Bills don’t understand how to use him. Last week Spiller only managed to play in 17% of the Bills offensive snaps, and I don’t think that increases to much this week. Fred Jackson can catch the football, he can run the football, and he can be utilized on the goal line. Sit C.J., trust Fred Jackson.
Antone Smith at BAL ($6,500) – I know we’ve seen it for a while now, and Smith is trying to trick us into playing him, but I’m not buying it this week. This Baltimore defense is going to be able to take advantage of the Falcons offensive line and the will dominate the Falcons upfront. The good news for the Antone Smith believers, is he only needs one break through and he can score 10-plus fantasy points and then I’m wrong.
The Greatest Wide Receivers value:(The greatest values all have risk, but they are cheap and I think they have a shot to have a monster game).
Andre Holmes v. ARI ($6,000) – In two straight games, Andre Holmes has caught a touchdown pass and I’m buying it. At the beginning of the season, I predicted that Andre Holmes would lead the Raiders in receptions, yards and touchdown passes,and with his huge 6-4 frame, he has a chance to accomplish that. The last few weeks, Arizona has struggled to cover wide receivers and with how much the Raiders are going to have to throw to keep up, Andre Holmes is a safe play.
Cordarrelle Patterson at BUF ($6,100) – He’s back! Okay, maybe not yet, but he’s headed there. I have so much faith in Patterson still that I traded for him in my most important league. If you look at the situation that the Vikings put him in, you’d see that he’s already played with three different quarterbacks this season. His new quarterback will be making his third career start, and his second start was against the NFL’s best defensive team so far this season. I’m putting a lot of stock in the eight targets he got last week. I expect him to be back and I think he proves it this week.
Andre Roberts v. TEN ($5,000) – I wrote about this earlier, but in the last three weeks, Andre Roberts leads the Redskins in receptions and targets. In a PPR league or a half point PPR league, you have to buy into the targets for the cheap price of $5,000. In fact, I’m buying in and taking a shot in one of my lineups this week.
Good Wide Receivers Values:
Rueben Randle at DAL ($6,500) – Some believe that Randle is stepping up into the number one role, but if you look at the numbers, you’d realize that he was already there. Randle has lead the Giants in targets thus far and that should continue, especially early in the transition process. Randle is the Giants go-to red zone target for receivers as well and that shouldn’t change as they like to take advantage of his size. I don’t love the matchup, but I do like the trust that has been formed with Eli Manning.
Golden Tate v. NO ($6,700) – Well, last week I wrote about how Tate would be fine because he’s developed chemistry with Stafford by not dropping passes, and go figure he managed to drop a couple of key passes that cost him some big fantasy points. Tate’s four fantasy points last week were disappointing, but in a high powered offense at home, I’ll buy into Tate again confidently.
Kelvin Benjamin at GB ($6,700) – Shootout! Get ready for the amount of points that is going to be put up in the Green Bay and Carolina game on Sunday. Even though Benjamin is coming off of a concussion, I think he is going to be able to take advantage of this Green Bay defense with his size. In three of his last four games, Benjamin has put up double digit fantasy points along with three touchdowns in those games.
Bad Wide Receivers Values:
DeSean Jackson v. TEN ($8,000) – Jackson does have back-to-back 100 yard receiving games, but if I’ve learned anything, he’s not trustable this week. He’s has become completely reliable on big plays and I’m thinking that it carries over for the third straight week. However, he’s does have three 100 yard games already this season.
Mohamed Sanu at IND ($7,200) – The Colts corners have played extremely well this season, and except for the meltdown against Andre Johnson last week, every other number one wide receiver has struggled. Sanu a must start in your fantasy football league, but in FanDuel, I can’t trust him. I’ve got a lot of questions about him this week and all I say is not against these corners.
Calvin Johnson v. NO ($8,600) – Calvin Johnson may play, and he said that unless he’s healthy that he won’t play. Fantasy owners are going to be a little scared to trust him, but in FanDuel, he’s definitely off limits.
Big gamble, good matchup, could pay off:
Keenan Allen v. KC ($6,500) – He’s a huge gamble because of the amount of weapons that the Chargers have. Last year, he was the only option for this team offensively and now they have a healthy Antonio Gates, a healthy Malcom Floyd, and a healthy Eddie Royal. There are a lot of weapons and at this point he is a complete dice roll.
Oct 12, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Washington Redskins tight end Jordan Reed (86) against the Arizona Cardinals at University of Phoenix Stadium. The Cardinals defeated the Redskins 30-20. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The Greatest Tight End value: (The greatest values all have risk, but they are cheap and I think they have a shot to have a monster game).
Jordan Reed v. TEN ($5,400) – Jordan Reed came back and was not eased back into the offense with his heavy snap percentage. It was clear that the Redskins want to focus this offense around Reed when he is healthy as he managed to catch eight passes on 11 targets in his Sunday return. Reed is going to be a huge part of the offense as long as he is healthy, and he is cheap on FanDuel. So like last week, I’m all in on Jordan Reed.
Good Tight End Values:
Jordan Cameron at Jaguars ($6,100) – Cameron is back! Well, I don’t know about that, considering his only touchdown came on a long fluky play. However, it did show us that Cameron is back to making big plays for the Cleveland Browns and should be considered in a good matchup for FanDuel. The Jaguars are currently giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and that makes Cameron a must start in all formats.
Martellus Bennett v. MIA ($6,000) – Bennett has sort of disappeared the last two weeks compared to how he started the season. However, even with his history of disappearing down the stretch of the season, I don’t think that will be the case this season because of the health of Jay Cutler. I think he bounces back this week against Miami, with the Bears wide receivers being occupied with Miami’s physical corners. In the two match ups against good tight ends this season, the Dolphins have allowed double digit fantasy points in both of them.
Bad Tight End Values:
Jason Witten v. NYG ($5,900) – Witten just isn’t involved in the passing game as much as I expected him to be this season. In fact, I took Witten in a majority of my PPR league drafts as I thought they’d use him as a 60-70 catch tight end. I cannot express enough how wrong I managed to be. Although Witten has been solid the last three weeks, you need upside when playing FanDuel, and Witten just doesn’t have it.
Delanie Walker at WAS ($5,900) – It’s hard to establish any upside or touchdown potential with Charlie Whitehurst slinging the rock. Walker has only managed to score 9 fantasy points in the last two weeks, and his zero touchdowns in that timespan have been a big reason for the bad production. Until Locker comes back, we can’t trust Walker in FanDuel.
Big gamble, good matchup, could pay off:
Travis Kelce at SD ($5,800) – I love Kelce. I projected him to break out this season and I liked him last year, but he got hurt and missed the season. The risk is clear with Kelce as he is currently only playing 58% of the Chiefs snaps and has managed to become extremely touchdown heavy. However, Travis Kelce has managed to score a touchdown in his last three games.
Oct 12, 2014; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Detroit Lions kicker Matt Prater (5) watches as his field goal attempt against the Minnesota Vikings fails in the second quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Lions win 17-3. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Kickers:
Good Kicker Values:
Matt Prater v. NO ($5,100) – Some claim that the Lions kicking position is cursed. However, Prater missed the first four games of the season and he changed teams. It’s not easy to then go on a flight with the team you just joined and play well. In the dome this week, he will be a lot better.
Kai Forbath v. TEN ($5,000)- I really like Forbath this week. Just a gut feeling, which is really all kickers are.
Bad Kicker Values:
Matt Bryant at BAL ($5,300) – I don’t like Bryant because I don’t trust the Falcons offense on the road.
Josh Brown at DAL ($5,200) – The same reason I don’t like Bryant is the same reason I don’t like Brown but at a much higher rate. The Giants will bounce back, but with the Cowboys offense controlling the time of possession, I’m out on Brown this week.
Defense:
Good Defenses Values:
Bears v.MIA ($5,100) – I think the Bears will be able to take advantage of the Dolphins passing game with rookie Kyle Fuller. Tannehill has been too much of okay Tannehill lately, and I think we may be seeing bad Tannehill now.
Ravens v. ATL ($5,000) – As I said when talking about kickers, I’m all out on the Atlanta Falcons on the road this week.
Bad Defenses Values:
Chargers v. KC ($5,300) – I can’t trust the Chargers this week, coming off a terrible defensive performance against the Raiders and getting the opportunity of playing an Andy Reid team coming off the bye. I’ll pass on the Chargers defense in FanDuel.
Carolina at GB ($5,400) – When was the last time you were excited to start a defense against Aaron Rodgers? Maybe Seattle?