Analysis of the ATP Race Rankings
The top three men in the world have once again separated themselves from the chasing pack. They all qualified for the World Tour Finals with time to spare and are now looking to end the season strongly in order to make an assault on the year-end World Number 1 spot.
Novak Djokovic
Rankings: 1st – 11510 points
Race: 1st – 9010 points (qualified)
Defending (2013): Basel (w/o – 0), Paris (W – 1000), London (W – 1500)
To Play (2014): Paris, London
Novak Djokovic will be desperate to end his brilliant 2014 season as World Number 1 and repeat his achievement from 2011 and 2012. He is 990 points ahead of Roger Federer in the Race, although this will fall to 490 if Federer wins in Basel this week, as Djokovic is not playing.
A lot will ride on the Paris Masters and the World Tour Finals, both of which Djokovic won last year. The winner in Paris gets 1000 points and in London an unbeaten champion gets 2000. His position ahead of Federer is safe but not quite secure.
If Djokovic misses any tournaments to see the birth of his first child, his position will certainly come under threat from Federer, but you would imagine this would be in the back of his mind during such a special time for him and his wife.
In terms of Rankings, he is secure in the knowledge that should he play in London for the World Tour Finals, he will be seeded 1, avoiding the number 2 seed which looks set to be Roger Federer.
Roger Federer
Rankings: 2nd – 9080 points
Race: 2nd – 8020 points (qualified)
Defending (2013): Basel (F – 300), Paris (S – 360), London (S – 400)
To Play (2014): Basel, Paris, London
Roger Federer has had a thrilling return to form in 2014, after many people thought his time at the very top of the men’s game was up in 2013. He will now be sensing an unlikely chance of ending the year as World Number 1, with Djokovic and Nadal both possibly missing part of the end of the year.
His 1275 point cushion over Nadal in the Race means that he is unlikely to fall backwards and has everything to gain in his final three tournaments. Federer can also boost his points total by winning the Davis Cup, which is played after the World Tour Finals. Currently this gives him 310 points, but a win in both his singles rubbers would take this up to 585 points, with Djokovic unable to add to his tally.
It makes for a thrilling end to the year, with the World Tour Finals taking on huge significance in the year-end Rankings. Federer receives a tremendous amount of support at the O2 in London and it could be the scene of his latest heroics on the tennis court.
Rafael Nadal
Rankings: 3rd – 8105 points
Race: 3rd – 6745 points (qualified)
Defending (2013): Paris (S – 360), London (F – 1000)
To Play (2014): Basel, Paris, London (doubt)
Rafael Nadal has had a mixed year, which shows in his third place standing in both the Race and the Rankings. Whilst he could conceivably return to Number 1 if he were to win every tournament he entered, his appendicitis makes that scenario seem very far-fetched.
The Spaniard is safe from being overtaken by Wawrinka in fourth and may well look to pull out of the World Tour Finals in London and focus on recovering from surgery and returning in 2015. It will be interesting to monitor his progress and performance in Basel this week as he may will skip the Paris Masters as well.