Analysis of the ATP Race Rankings

With the magical World Tour Finals Qualification Cut currently set at 4545 points, these three men are in prime position to take the three remaining spots at the World Tour Finals, but will need to remain vigilant to a shock run from one of the chasers this week or in Paris.

Kei Nishikori

Rankings: 7th – 4355 points

Race: 5th – 4265 points

Defending (2013): Basel (R16 – 45), Paris (R16 – 90)

To Play (2014): Paris

Kei Nishikori has interestingly withdrawn from the Valencia 500 tournament this week, despite his qualification for London not being 100% secured. Mathematically the US Open finalist still needs a solid performance in Paris to be assured of a place.

The series of events that will push Nishikori out of the Top 8 are unlikely and he will be confident that he has done enough to earn a place at the Tour Finals for the first time in his career. It really has been a breakout year from the Japanese star and his presence will be a massive boost to the tournament in London.

Thomas Berdych

Rankings: 6th – 4485 points

Race: 7th – 4105 points

Defending (2013): Basel (R32 – 0), Paris (Q – 180), London (RR – 200)

To Play (2014): Valencia, Paris

Thomas Berdych’s victory in Stockholm all but secured his place in London, barring a series of shock results. He has been consistent throughout 2014 and will play in Valencia to try and secure a spot at the Finals.

We could witness a bizarre scenario in which Berdych and Murray finish the season level on points. with Murray currently 120 points behind the Czech player in the race, a run to the simi-final for Berdych (180 points) and a run to the final for Murray (300 points) will see the men tied heading into Paris.

If they both exit the Masters in the French capital at the same stage, we could see the unlikely event of a tie. The prospect of this is made even more interesting by the fact that if David Ferrer were to win in Valencia and go deep in Paris, Murray and Berdych would be tied for 8th place in the Race, with no more tournaments to play.

The tie-breaking criteria in this scenario is not known, but it can’t got by 2014 head-to-head as the two have not played. Career head-to-head would give Berdych the edge, whilst match wins this year would see Murray make the cut. It’s an unlikely scenario, but one that would be fascinating to follow if it panned out.

Andy Murray

Rankings: 10th – 3795 points

Race: 8th – 3885 points

Defending (2013): Basel (w/o – 0)

To Play (2014): Valencia, Paris

Andy Murray’s place in the World Tour Finals was hanging on a knife-edge before his return to form is recent smaller tournaments has seen him rise up the Race standings into eighth and therefore a qualifying position. His two recent battles with David Ferrer, winning one of them,have proved vital.

This rivalry looks set to continue in the Valencia 500 Open, with the two on a collision course in the semi-finals. Murray will still be looking over his shoulder at the three chasers and a win at Valencia for the second time will give him some much needed breathing space heading into the Paris Masters.

Should Murray qualify for the World Tour Finals in front of his home crowd, he will be looking to improve his Ranking as back surgery last year forced him to miss the final tournaments of 2013. He could rise as high as number 4 in the World if he ends the season strongly, which will be a miraculous recovery for the Brit, who has endured a difficult season by his high standards.