The James Harden Trade: Post-Kevin Durant Injury

Apr 24, 2013; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) talks with Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant in the second half during game two of the first round of the 2013 NBA Playoffs at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /

Re-examining James Harden’s trade from Oklahoma City to the Houston Rockets in the wake of Kevin Durant’s injury

On Oct. 28, 2012, the Oklahoma City Thunder sent James Harden to Houston in a trade that included Kevin Martin, Jeremy Lamb, and the future draft pick that became Steven Adams.

It was obvious at the time Houston’s general manager Daryl Morey had just pulled off an Omar-esque rip and run on OKC. Houston was always going to win the trade, but the question was, by how much?

In the wake of Kevin Durant’s foot injury, the Harden trade looks even worse now.

I’m channeling my inner-Bill Simmons here, and it needs to be noted how bad OKC screwed this up… for, like, the billionth time.

Kevin Durant had surgery Oct. 17 to repair a Jones fracture, basically a stress fracture, in his foot. It’s estimated Durant will be out six-to-eight weeks, but the injury could keep him out even longer. With the NBA season starting on the two-year anniversary of the Harden trade, OKC will be without Durant for at least 25 percent of the regular season, approximately 20 games, if his foot heals correctly.

Kevin Durant Career Stats

Season	Lg	G	GS	MP	FG	FGA	FG%	3P%	TRB	AST	PTS
2007-08	NBA	80	80	34.6	7.3	17.1	.430	.288	4.4	2.4	20.3
2008-09	NBA	74	74	39.0	8.9	18.8	.476	.422	6.5	2.8	25.3
2009-10 ★	NBA	82	82	39.5	9.7	20.3	.476	.365	7.6	2.8	30.1
2010-11 ★	NBA	78	78	38.9	9.1	19.7	.462	.350	6.8	2.7	27.7
2011-12 ★	NBA	66	66	38.6	9.7	19.7	.496	.387	8.0	3.5	28.0
2012-13 ★	NBA	81	81	38.5	9.0	17.7	.510	.416	7.9	4.6	28.1
2013-14 ★	NBA	81	81	38.5	10.5	20.8	.503	.391	7.4	5.5	32.0
Career	NBA	542	542	38.2	9.2	19.2	.479	.377	6.9	3.5	27.4

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/19/2014.

Durant’s injury leaves the Thunder without their best player and a huge gap in production that will need to be replaced for OKC to be successful.

Now, I’m not trying to beat a super-dead horse here, but it is relevant to the landscape of the league when considering what it would look like had Harden not been traded to Houston.

In the first two seasons without Harden, the Thunder finished first and second in the West, respectively.

The first season finished when Russell Westbrook tore his meniscus in the first-round of the playoffs. Technically, OKC advanced to play Memphis in the conference semifinals, but they didn’t have a chance without Westbrook.

In the second season without Harden, Westbrook battled knee issues and missed 36 games. With a much more steady workload, Durant excelled, which resulted in the MVP trophy and the league’s first 30-plus point scorer since the 2009-10 season. With a completely healthy roster, the Thunder fell to the San Antonio Spurs in the conference finals.

With Harden, these last two seasons play out vastly different for the Thunder. There’s no doubt about it.

Now heading into the third season without Harden, the Thunder face their steepest hurdle since the Harden trade, getting by without their superstar.

Since the Harden trade, Durant has only missed two games. In his seven-year career, he’s only missed 16 games. To assume the Thunder will be okay without Durant is one thing, but to assume they’ll be at the top of the West is absurd. OKC has entered uncharted waters, and the NBA’s version of Captain Jack Sparrow has just taken the wheel.

In that analogy, Durant is obviously Captain Barbosa and Harden is Will Turner.

Thunder Pirates /

With Durant out at least the first 25 percent of the season and possibly more, the focus shifts from winning a title to keeping pace in the West. Of course, if they can be healthy by the playoffs, OKC has a chance to win the conference regardless of the seed. The goal, especially for the Thunder, would be to finish at the top of the West with home court advantage through the playoffs. That one-seed is in jeopardy and so are the Thunder’s chances at winning an NBA championship. With three injuries to their best two players in three years, it’s impossible not to wonder if OKC has already missed their title window.

Think of how much has to go right for a team to win an NBA championship. This season, the Spurs dominated the final three rounds of the NBA playoffs, but they were a play or two away from losing in the first round against the Mavericks. If the Thunder are not completely healthy come playoff time, they can’t be taken seriously as a contender, not in the West. I’m not writing off the Thunder before the season even starts, but their roster has problems as it is, and Westbrook is going have to play huge minutes early in the season. Will his knees hold up for the whole season?

Continually, the Thunder fail to acknowledge there is a possible expiration date of this roster as it’s constructed. Durant becomes an unrestricted free agent after the 2015-16 season.

Like LeBron James in Cleveland, Durant could easily become fed up with the organization’s failure to build a talented roster around him. Sure, Westbrook, Reggie Jackson, and Serge Ibaka are good players, and the Thunder have drafted some good young guys, but they’ve missed out on a nailing a good, difference-making free agent, like Pau Gasol.

This is especially mindboggling when considering the increase in the salary cap coming after the new TV deal goes into effect. Kendrick Perkins makes $9.5 million per season. If the Thunder would have amnestied Perkins in 2012, before they traded Harden, OKC would have had enough money and cap space to keep Harden. As the Dothraki say, it is known.

It’s foolish to assume, in 2012, OKC knew the salary cap would go up as much as it’s projected to increase, but they had to have some idea. The owners and front office executives who are paid to be in the know in all league activity had to see some increase in the cap coming down the road. Why wouldn’t the Thunder roll the dice?

Here’s a quote from GM Sam Presti the day OKC traded Harden taken from ESPN:

"“We were unable to reach a mutual agreement, and therefore executed a trade that capitalized on the opportunity to bring in a player of Kevin’s caliber, a young talent like Jeremy and draft picks, which will be important to our organizational goal of a sustainable team.”"

When faced with the decision to bring back Harden, OKC balked at the possible expenses they could face in the future. They knew they had two stars in Durant and Westbrook and chose to sacrifice their third star to try to build a team that can compete every season, not necessarily win a championship every season. That’s the flaw in OKC’s plan.

With the speculation about Durant to Washington in 2016 and Westbrook signing elsewhere, possibly Los Angeles, in 2017, OKC could be left with zero stars, and it all can be traced back to one point in time: the day they traded Harden to Houston.

Will the Thunder ever recover?

Honestly, I don’t think so. Even with a completely healthy Westbrook and Durant, the Thunder are too one-dimensional. There’s no low-post scoring threat on the roster. All of the other teams in the West, who have a realistic chance at making the finals, have a solid low-post scorer. Until the Thunder add that player, they will not win the West.

In 2011-12, the Thunder had the best perimeter attack in basketball. Durant, Harden, and Westbrook could not be stopped during the regular season and all through the playoffs until the NBA Finals.

The Thunder have severely handicapped their offense, and it shows in the playoffs against good defensive teams. And, it’s all because of the Harden trade.

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