Catching up on the NHL‘s race for the “Next One”, Connor McDavid
The fine folks over at Frozen Futures have been doing a weekly update on the race for the first overall pick in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. Keep in mind that every NHL team is 100% committed to winning the Stanley Cup this season and no one could possibly be tanking their season one week in… or so they say. So why this focus on last place? Connor McDavid – who has already been minted as “the Next Great One” in a long line of “Next Great Ones” that have followed Wayne Gretzky.
It is still early in the 2014-15 NHL season, but some teams have already set new standards for how low the bar could possibly go. The Edmonton Oilers are right at home in last place with zero wins on the season and one point due to an overtime loss. With the Oilers still not playing defense and team made up of “Next Ones”, would the Oilers really benefit from McDavid?
The Oilers have shown year after year that the quickest path to the toilet is terrible defense – the Oilers are allowing an average of 4.80 goals per game. However, that hasn’t stopped the Buffalo Sabres and the Florida Panthers from trying to the old “we just won’t score” method of being terrible. The Sabres gained notoriety for such feats as only putting 12 shots on goal in a game against the Anaheim Ducks. Steven Stamkos alone reached that mark the following night for the Tampa Bay Lightning. The Florida Panthers are averaging 1.00 goals per game and the Sabres are just a little higher with 1.17.
Florida has made headlines due to their empty arena, but when your team averages just one goal a game and has been terrible (but not terrible enough to land a franchise-saving draft pick) for over a decade, can you really blame the fans for not showing up? If one team could benefit more from landing the league’s next big star, it is the Florida Panthers.
A winning team is built from the crease out, so therefore a losing team could also start there is well. Despite having one of the greatest goaltenders in the history of the NHL behind the bench, the Colorado Avalanche currently have the starting goaltender of the Lake Erie Monsters, Calvin Pickard, in net after Semyon Varlamov was placed on the IR and Reto Berra was run into by Kyle Turris. How very unfortunate…
Colorado is taking a two-pronged approach in the race for last by also averaging only 1.50 goals against. Everyone expected the Colorado Avalanche to fall back to earth this season (after vastly outperforming expectations last season) but even advanced stats nerds would say they are overdoing it a bit. Colorado is showing up in several McDavid-Watch articles, but there is no way this team could actually be this bad. They may miss the playoffs, but the only way Colorado is drafting Connor McDavid is if they get lucky and win the draft lottery.
The Carolina Hurricanes are another team that has been completely decimated by injuries to start the season; losing Jordan Staal to a broken leg during the pre-season, Jeff Skinner has been out with a concussion, and Eric Staal is out with an upper-body injury. This has led to the Hurricanes dressing a lineup comprised of Charlotte Checkers and a 0-2-2 start. Like Colorado, Carolina will get healthy (Skinner and Eric Staal will be back soon, Jordan Staal is out for 3-4 months) and start to win games. They will finish in the basement, but this isn’t a last placed team.
With all of that stated, here are my rankings from most likely, to least likely for the current teams in the running for Connor McDavid and the first overall pick:
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