Willie Cauley-Stein Scouting Report: October 2014

Mar 8, 2014; Gainesville, FL, USA; Kentucky Wildcats forward Willie Cauley-Stein (15) is introduced before the game against the Florida Gators at Stephen C. O

With the season just around the corner, I will be looking at some of the NCAA’s returning players who are projected to be first-round picks in the upcoming draft. The first player on the docket: Kentucky’s Willie Cauley-Stein.

Statistics

NBA Comparison

Rudy Gobert

Scouting Report

Willie Cauley-Stein’s sophomore season was cut short due to a stress fracture in his ankle that he suffered in the Kentucky Wildcats’ Sweet 16 victory over Louisville. Even with that being the case, there were rumbles that the 7-foot center would be a first-round pick if he were to enter the draft. (It helped his cause that the 2014 class was incredible thin on big men.) Nevertheless, he decided to return to Kentucky for his junior year in the hope of furthering his degree and taking care of some unfinished business.

By all accounts, it was the right decision. As a result of his injury, Cauley-Stein would’ve likely been unable to participate in pre-draft workouts. Because there are still so many questions about his game, that could’ve hurt his stock in a big way. And although he’ll be 22-years-old by the time the 2015 draft rolls around, one more season of development could do wonders for his future prospects.

With the loss of Julius Randle and James Young, Cauley-Stein will be looking to carry a bigger load this season on both ends of the court for the Wildcats. He is one of two juniors on the the team, the rest being make up by freshmen and sophomores. It’s a great opportunity for him to take center stage on a team that many expect to rise to the top in the nation.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at what the big man has done up until now to determine whether or not he is lottery pick material.

Defense

Defense is Cauley-Stein’s calling card, and his physical tools help him out in a big way. At the Kentucky Combine, he measured in at 7-foot and 240 pounds. He also has a 7-foot-2 wingspan and a 37-inch max vertical, all of which culminating in him being a force on the defensive end.

In 2013-2014, Cauley-Stein blocked a total of 106 shots in 37 games (2.9 per game), good enough for the second most in a single season in the Wildcats’ illustrious history. He is now 102 blocks away from breaking the school’s record, and as long as he stays healthy this season he should surpass Jamaal Magloire on the all-time leader board.

Cauley-Stein also blocked 12.3 percent of all opponent’s shot attempts on the season, which is a near mirror image of what Anthony Davis put up in his lone campaign in Kentucky (13.8 percent). He did all that averaging only 4.5 fouls per 40 minutes, too. Being able to stay on the court, alter shots and not get in foul trouble is a big asset for a center.

What makes Cauley-Stein stand out in particular on the defensive end is his versatility. Kentucky frequently ran a 2-2-1 full court press and instead of using the norm of two guards at the top, Cauley-Stein filled one of those spots. That forced him to shade and trap the ball handler on one end of the court and quickly assume his typical role as a rim protector once the ball passed half court, preventing any easy fast-break opportunities.

He moves very well laterally, too, which is a huge asset when it comes to pick and roll defense. He can switch onto perimeter players and stick with them about as well as you’d expect from a center. Although he sometimes smothers the ball handler too much, he makes up for it with his long arms and shot blocking ability.

Beyond that, Cauley-Stein led the Wildcats with 1.2 steals per game last season. He has good instincts and frequently pokes away entry passes into the post by using his long arms to deny the opposing team’s big man. Only two centers in Kevin Pelton’s database posted better translated steal rates in a collegiate season: Nerlens Noel and Anthony Davis. That’s not bad company for Cauley-Stein to be in, at all.

Rebounding

Cauley-Stein is a poor rebounder. According to Draft Express, his 6.6 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes last season would’ve ranked him second to last amongst the centers who were drafted in 2013.

In saying that, he has three things going for him in that department:

1. Size and athleticism. It’s simple: he’s a humungous human being with pogo sticks for legs. That’s going to make rebounding easier, naturally.
2. Sticking to the fundamentals. Boxing out always helps at every level of basketball. Especially on free throws, Cauley-Stein seals his man and then attacks the glass.
3. Hustle. You create your own luck with rebounding. The more you hustle and the more you try to read where the ball will go, the more likely you will get offensive boards. That’s the case with Cauley-Stein.

The downside is that, despite putting on almost 20 pounds of muscle since he was in high school, he still struggles to box out bigger players. While there’s reason to believe that he’ll get better in that department as he continues to bulk up, he simply might not have the tenacity and instincts to be a dominant rebounder. Considering how big and athletic he is, that’s concerning.

Scoring

The good news when it comes to Cauley-Stein’s scoring ability is that he’s very effective when he gets the ball near the rim. According to Nylon Calculus, 80 percent of his total shots last season came within five-feet of the rim. Of those shots, Cauley-Stein made 69 percent of them.

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Shot Chart/Nylon Calculus

Cauley-Stein’s physical tools are a big reason why he put up those high shooting numbers last season — he’s quick in the open court, easy to throw alley-oops to and he has a very basic level of moves. While he has to improve on his low-post scoring greatly to be respected on the offensive end in the NBA, he’s shown the ability to get into the paint and knock down hook shots with either hand.

It’s not great but it’s a start.

However, Cauley-Stein is still incredibly raw. Although he’s shown flashes of being able to make a move out of the post, he’s still very methodical, he can’t consistently create his own shot and he doesn’t have a great touch. Taking all those factors into account, it’s relatively easy for defenders to take him out of the game. To add to that, strength is still a big issue for him. He catches the ball much further out than he should on post-ups and settles for deep hook shots instead of working his way closer to the basket.

Although he’s a great athlete and a good target on cuts to the rim, he doesn’t look to score off of pick-and-rolls. Instead, he just tends to set the screen and saunter down the lane. That’s also the case in isolations, he’s not aggressive at all.

The Wildcats didn’t ask much from Cauley-Stein offensively last season, so the issues weren’t quite so glaring. Because he was a huge minus for the team on offense, they paired him with Julius Randle at the four whenever he was on the court. Based on their 29-11 record and 117.6 adjusted offensive rating last season, it’s clear that the pairing didn’t hurt them in any way. Now that Randle is gone, though, Cauley-Stein will have to show off more of an offensive game for the Wildcats to achieve their lofty goals.

Turnovers

It’s not that Cauley-Stein turns the ball over frequently, there are just a number of rather simple things he continues to struggle with. In particular, he gets pushed off of his spot too easily, resulting in him making weak passes to teammates that are easy to pick off. He struggles to pass out of double-teams, as well, which hurts him and the team in a big way.

Perhaps Cauley-Stein will improve as his offensive game evolves. He did, after all, lower the amount of turnovers he committed from his freshman campaign to his sophomore one. For now, though, he commits too many turnovers for the amount of touches he gets on a game-to-game basis.

It’s not the biggest thing holding Cauley-Stein back from moving up the draft boards, but it’s another knock to his game.

Overall

Cauley-Stein’s ability to impact a game on the defensive end is the reason why he found his name floating around the first-round this offseason. It is, without a doubt, the biggest asset he brings to an NBA team moving forward. He blocks shots at a high rate, can guard multiple positions, and is a disciplined defender.

However, there’s still a lot of work to be done before Cauley-Stein develops into an NBA-calibre center. He had some big scoring games in 2013-2014. His season-high was 18 points against Ole Miss, and he did so on 7-for-8 shooting from the field and 4-for-5 from the free throw line. Nevertheless, he also went through a six game stretch of scoring 14 points on 5-for-23 shooting from the field in the middle of January.

Cauley-Stein will have to be a lot more consistent offensively this season to improve his draft stock. As of now, he is still too much of a liability on offense to garner big minutes. It’s why he could see his game time remain the same or even dwindle down this season with the additions of Trey Lyles and Karl-Anthony Towns. (Not to mention the return of Dakari Johnson, too.) It’s also the reason why Chad Ford believes he’s destined to spend time in the NBA D-League.

"“He’s not ready. Teams love the fact that he’s a great shot blocker and how well he moves, laterally and up and down the court, but he’s going to struggle to see minutes in the NBA. He’s a classic candidate to be heading directly to the D-League. I think he’d get better coaching, probably, and more fundamentals in college.” Willie Cauley-Stein to return to Kentucky for junior season | USA Today"

It’s an important season for Cauley-Stein’s future. Now that he’s a junior and a fringe lottery pick, there’s no more time for excuses — this is when he should start to become a more mature and refined player. If he can expand his game offensively, there’s no reason why he wont hear his name called in the 10-to-15 spot. If not, though, he could slide to the back end of the first round.

All statistics courtesy of KenPom, Draft Express and ESPN.